WP/Ipsos: Biden strong favorite among black adults, Sanders 2nd

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post/Ipsos, Jan. 2-8, 1088 non-Hispanic black adults.

Biden 48
Sanders 20
Warren 9
Bloomberg, Booker 4
Yang 3
Buttigieg, Steyer 2
Others <0.5

Second choice:

Sanders 24
Warren 20
Biden 17
Booker 8
Bloomberg 5
Klobuchar, Yang 4
Buttigieg, Steyer 3

GE matchups:

Biden 82, Trump 4
Sanders 74, Trump 4
Warren 71, Trump 4
Booker 67, Trump 4
Bloomberg 62, Trump 4
Yang 62, Trump 4
Klobuchar 58, Trump 5
Buttigieg 57, Trump 4

[Tender Branson]

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

[Cinemark]

If Biden wants to win the primary by wiping out Sanders or Warren in the south, he's gonna have to do better. Hillary routinely beat Sanders by substantially more than 28 points with black voters. Even in Michigan, Hillary beat Sanders with black voters by 40 points.

Of course, I do recall polls underestimating Hillary's support among non-white communities. The polls leading up to the South Carolina primary being the most notable example.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This will swing towards Bernie if he notches victories in the early states.  These folks are clear; they want a winner.  If Sanders looks to be a winner he'll pick up much of their support.   

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

Is this what it actually says in the poll or are you just extrapolating because Buttigieg isn’t popular?

[Gone to Carolina]

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

Is this what it actually says in the poll or are you just extrapolating because Buttigieg isn’t popular?

There is actually a subsection in the poll about this.

14. Thinking about different types of people you might consider supporting for
president, how would you feel about supporting someone who is… C. A gay man

Enthusiastic about supporting - 8%
Comfortable about supporting - 49%
Have some reservations about supporting - 20%
Be very uncomfortable supporting - 21%
No opinion - 3%

Granted you get similar numbers of people who are uncomfortable supporting someone over 70 years old or even higher for billionaires.

14. Thinking about different types of people you might consider supporting for
president, how would you feel about supporting someone who is… F. A billionaire

Enthusiastic about supporting - 4%
Comfortable about supporting - 41%
Have some reservations about supporting - 38%
Be very uncomfortable supporting - 15%
No opinion - 3%

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

Is this what it actually says in the poll or are you just extrapolating because Buttigieg isn’t popular?

I mean, Buttigieg should at least be polling better than Yang with his name recognition.  This is a frustrating poll.

[Eraserhead]

Not bad numbers for Sanders at this point. Recall that he lost the black vote to Clinton by like 80%-20% nationally.

[redjohn]

In January 2016, Black voters preferred Clinton to Sanders by a margin of 43% (NBC/Survey Monkey poll). That margin's been slashed in half this time around.

[Gracile]

Here is the breakdown by age:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1216014641031151618

Unsurprisingly Sanders leads with black voters aged 18-34, but Biden leads with all other age groups.

[Adam Griffin]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

...as I've said multiple times, the delegate allocation system can still result (especially in the South) in Biden winning states with 35-45% of the popular vote and still carrying a greater percentage of delegates than Clinton. In 2016, there were essentially no other candidates pulling votes that would fail to reach viability threshold, whereas this cycle, there are many.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Good poll for Sanders. If he wins IA, NH and NV where few blacks live, he will even further improve among blacks.

[Rookie Yinzer]

In January 2016, Black voters preferred Clinton to Sanders by a margin of 43% (NBC/Survey Monkey poll). That margin's been slashed in half this time around.

Comparing that two person race to this crowded field is disingenuous. Sanders is still poised to do very badly in the South.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good poll for Sanders. If he wins IA, NH and NV where few blacks live, he will even further improve among blacks.

Why?  I mean it's possible, but I don't see how you can automatically assume that.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Good poll for Sanders. If he wins IA, NH and NV where few blacks live, he will even further improve among blacks.

Why?  I mean it's possible, but I don't see how you can automatically assume that.

Folks are convinced that black voters are waiting for white people to tell them a candidate is OK because of Obama 2008. Clearly ignoring Obama had pulled himself into a tie with Clinton by Christmas 2007 and had acquired quite a bit of establishment support. Sanders is a far left kook who hates the Democratic Party. No amount of white hyper fanatic zealots in Iowa caucusing is going to improve his standing in the South and among black voters.

[redjohn]

In January 2016, Black voters preferred Clinton to Sanders by a margin of 43% (NBC/Survey Monkey poll). That margin's been slashed in half this time around.

Comparing that two person race to this crowded field is disingenuous. Sanders is still poised to do very badly in the South.

I mean, then we can't compare it to anything. He's likely to perform better in the south than he did in 2016, and in a race that will be close, that matters. That's what the data indicates.

[Eraserhead]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

[Xing]

Sanders is probably doing significantly better among black voters outside of the South than he is in among those in the South, like in 2016. That gives him hope of doing well in the Midwest and Northeast, even if he gets blown out of the water in the South.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol someone email Candace Owens those black numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

The exit polls were wrong: pure and simple. Precinct analysis and county-by-county assessments both show this. I have no idea why there was such a comprehensive failure of assessing black voting preferences in the 2016 Democratic primary on a national level, but it's clear.

Particularly in the South, it's obvious that the exit polls overestimated the share of white voters in most states. In GA (where turnout is recorded by race by the SoS), the exit polls showed a 51% black and 38% white electorate: the SoS recorded a 59% black and 30% white electorate. AL as you mentioned is another example: supposedly Sanders got 38% of the white vote, yet didn't crack that number in any county but one (Blount, which had 1,000 voters, where he got 38.6%)! Even in the far northern counties where the vast majority of Democratic voters are white, Sanders didn't clear that figure. If Sanders got 38% in AL among whites, then he would have won (or came very close) to carrying several northern counties. The exit poll data suggests that Bernie should have won most "northern counties" in the Deep South & a ton in the Mid South, yet...

In short, there was a systematic failure in exit polling during the '16 Dem primary that - at least in mathematical terms - replaced actual black Sanders voters with non-existent white Sanders voters (which, when experts revised the exit polls to "make sense" according to their expectations, probably was the most logical choice given racial polarization - but nevertheless wrong).

Sanders got 20% of the black vote across the Confederacy and 40% elsewhere, averaging out to ~30% overall.

[eric82oslo]

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

It's more that they know he's been treating African Americans horribly in the past.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

Warren should prepare to primary Biden in 2024 if he's elected president. If not Warren, than at least Yang or Gabbard.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

Warren should prepare to primary Biden in 2024 if he's elected president. If not Warren, than at least Yang or Gabbard.

So you want Biden to be renominated, then?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

Warren should prepare to primary Biden in 2024 if he's elected president. If not Warren, than at least Yang or Gabbard.

So you want Biden to be renominated, then?

Biden will likely be renominated in 2024, but we need a primary challenge. Gabbard is an option. I agree, she has zero chance to win in 2024, or in 2020. But she's well positioned to primary Biden in 2024.