2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If you were to rank the options in SCPA from most Dem-friendly to most R-friendly, it would be:

Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York in the same district
Harrisburg and Lancaster together, York separate
Harrisburg and York together, Lancaster separate
Lancaster and York together, Harrisburg separate
Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York all separate

So in a sense, Harrisburg-York is the median choice.

HCY in one district would be absurd lol, it's not a real option.

[Boss_Rahm]

If you were to rank the options in SCPA from most Dem-friendly to most R-friendly, it would be:

Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York in the same district
Harrisburg and Lancaster together, York separate
Harrisburg and York together, Lancaster separate
Lancaster and York together, Harrisburg separate
Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York all separate

So in a sense, Harrisburg-York is the median choice.

HCY in one district would be absurd lol, it's not a real option.

Not more absurd than some of the GOP's proposed maps. You can do it with minimal county splits, and you can make a COI argument for grouping cities together.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If you were to rank the options in SCPA from most Dem-friendly to most R-friendly, it would be:

Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York in the same district
Harrisburg and Lancaster together, York separate
Harrisburg and York together, Lancaster separate
Lancaster and York together, Harrisburg separate
Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York all separate

So in a sense, Harrisburg-York is the median choice.

HCY in one district would be absurd lol, it's not a real option.

Not more absurd than some of the GOP's proposed maps. You can do it with minimal county splits, and you can make a COI argument for grouping cities together.

You can't draw them all together without either making the district non-compact or splitting the Harrisburg metro.

[Boss_Rahm]

If you were to rank the options in SCPA from most Dem-friendly to most R-friendly, it would be:

Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York in the same district
Harrisburg and Lancaster together, York separate
Harrisburg and York together, Lancaster separate
Lancaster and York together, Harrisburg separate
Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York all separate

So in a sense, Harrisburg-York is the median choice.

HCY in one district would be absurd lol, it's not a real option.

Not more absurd than some of the GOP's proposed maps. You can do it with minimal county splits, and you can make a COI argument for grouping cities together.

You can't draw them all together without either making the district non-compact or splitting the Harrisburg metro.

Agreed, you have to split the Harrisburg metro at least 2 ways, which I would not consider fair. The map passed through the legislature split the Harrisburg metro 3 ways, however.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/status/1500957552162623489?s=20&t=nJY6nnv...

[politicallefty]

Link to the order. No noted dissents. It seems to mostly be a technical reason since it's currently being heard by a three-judge panel. The Court left open the option to appeal any ruling.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Link to the order. No noted dissents. It seems to mostly be a technical reason since it's currently being heard by a three-judge panel. The Court left open the option to appeal any ruling.

Any real chance the map is overturned?

[politicallefty]

Link to the order. No noted dissents. It seems to mostly be a technical reason since it's currently being heard by a three-judge panel. The Court left open the option to appeal any ruling.

Any real chance the map is overturned?

Take a look at the dissent from the NC case. The NC case seemed far more ripe for the taking and the Court turned them down. In that case, there may be at least four votes to hear a case on the merits down the road. It looks like Barrett would likely be the swing vote if such a case were to be heard (as it appears that both she and Roberts joined the three liberals to deny the stay). Roberts likely holds that position because he seems to generally be holding a serious line on stare decisis grounds.

It looks like a virtual certainty that both maps will be used for 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

Link to the order. No noted dissents. It seems to mostly be a technical reason since it's currently being heard by a three-judge panel. The Court left open the option to appeal any ruling.

Any real chance the map is overturned?

Take a look at the dissent from the NC case. The NC case seemed far more ripe for the taking and the Court turned them down. In that case, there may be at least four votes to hear a case on the merits down the road. It looks like Barrett would likely be the swing vote if such a case were to be heard (as it appears that both she and Roberts joined the three liberals to deny the stay). Roberts likely holds that position because he seems to generally be holding a serious line on stare decisis grounds.

It looks like a virtual certainty that both maps will be used for 2022.

I don't think it's a sure thing Kavanaugh votes for the legislature.  He seems genuinely conflicted and wants to settle the issue.  Barrett is a pleasant surprise for those supporting the state court's authority to intervene. 

Also, note that the main dissent (Gorsuch/Alito/Thomas) focused on how the language in the state constitution cited in the ruling was generic and did not explicitly mention gerrymandering and how the only election-related passage was "All elections shall be free."  That could save redistricting commissions that were explicit state constitutional amendments even in a worst case scenario.

The PA case is much more of a stretch for the legislature and involves a different precedent on veto power. 

[Boss_Rahm]

All 7 PASC justices wrote their own opinions on the Congressional map decision.

https://twitter.com/SupremeCtofPA/status/1501626208836014083

[lfromnj]

PA GOP House Leader has filed a challenge against the recently passed house and senate maps, asking the PA Supreme Court to use the 2012 lines for the 2022 election.

lmao, on what basis??

The state house has a pretty strong D bias according to the same tests the PA supreme used to strike down the congressional maps in 2018.  State senate is more mixed, Dems getting that Monroe /Scranton split probably makes up for the GOP getting to split Lancaster. I guess its probably over city split stuff though. I highly doubt that works because I think it does have a bit fewer splits. The partisan unfairness test should work by the court's own logic but they are probably too hackish.

This claim was refuted during the hearings on the map. The GOP relied on a single person's simulation results which were not found to be reproducible, and in fact when minority representation was taken into account (which the GOP's simulation did not do), the map was not at all biased. IMO there's a much more valid claim to be made that the map splits municipalities excessively in order to avoid incumbent pairings, but of course the House GOP leadership doesn't want to touch that aspect of the map.

Explain the minority rights here or at state college.




3 Biden seats or even 4 is fair in Harrisburg but only 1 should be Safe D.  What they did here was make 3 Safe D seats.



Splitting Allentown into 3 to do the same .



Reading has a similar split and only 1 majority hispanic district exists.


Overall a lot of the boosting isn't really Biden seats, I would expect around 98 to 100 but it really does boost downballot Democrats quite a bit. Having 3  Ahmad state house seats in Harrisburg is pretty damn strong.

[Boss_Rahm]

From the Commission's report on its process:

When faced with situations in which some municipalities must be divided,
the Commission team generally chose to divide the more populous municipalities,
rather than the less populous municipalities. When areas with greater population
are divided, their communities still represent sizeable constituencies that can
garner attention from their elected officials. Further, these communities still have
significant voting share and can therefore continue to influence the election for
their representatives. The same often is not true for less populous communities.
Even when whole, these communities may struggle to attract the attention of
elected officials or to influence elections—especially when the smaller
communities are grouped with much larger communities. When these less
populous communities are divided, their chances for influence are further
diminished.
Residents of less populous municipalities also tend to identify more closely
with their municipalities. By contrast, residents of large municipalities often define
their communities more in terms of neighborhoods. Therefore, residents of larger
municipalities tend to accept being divided into multiple legislative districts more
willingly than residents of smaller municipalities.

[Schiff for Senate]

Bumping an old thread, but I just created an 11-6 Democratic gerrymander in PA I wanted to share here. Any feedback would be appreciated.

[Nyvin]

Bumping an old thread, but I just created an 11-6 Democratic gerrymander in PA I wanted to share here. Any feedback would be appreciated.

I really hope districts like this never come back.

[Schiff for Senate]

Bumping an old thread, but I just created an 11-6 Democratic gerrymander in PA I wanted to share here. Any feedback would be appreciated.

I really hope districts like this never come back.

Unless you're specifically talking about PA, they already have. IL has very weird district lines, for instance.

EDIT: And to clarify, I made this map merely as a challenge to see how to maximize the number of blue seats in PA (with the rule that none of them could be too close, and that at least a handful of them had to have very convicing margins).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bumping an old thread, but I just created an 11-6 Democratic gerrymander in PA I wanted to share here. Any feedback would be appreciated.

Very efficient.
I hereby christen this the Half Dozen Dragons Tails Across the Keystone State.

[Sol]

Ironic/grim that if Summer Lee loses, it will be due to the map putting Westmoreland areas in with PGH.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ironic/grim that if Summer Lee loses, it will be due to the map putting Westmoreland areas in with PGH.

How so?

[lfromnj]

Ironic/grim that if Summer Lee loses, it will be due to the map putting Westmoreland areas in with PGH.

How so?

Irwin got like 70% of the vote in the Westmoreland portion of the county.

[CookieDamage]

The CookieDamage Association for Fair and Ungerrymandered Congressional Districts has released its proposal for a mid decade redistricting for Pennsylvania

[Sol]

The CookieDamage Association for Fair and Ungerrymandered Congressional Districts has released its proposal for a mid decade redistricting for Pennsylvania

You're not allowed to post in this thread unless you fess up to being pbower or solid

/s

[Epaminondas]

The CookieDamage Association for Fair and Ungerrymandered Congressional Districts has released its proposal for a mid decade redistricting for Pennsylvania

Solid attempt, 9/10, bonus point point if your new Harrisburg district gets water contiguity along the Juniata river.

Am guessing 12-5 for Dems, which would be well deserved given the shellacking of the 2022 midterms.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A D gerrymander of PA is always going to be quite hard and look ugly because so many of Dems votes are concentrated in SEPA; you rlly need to bacon strip.