NJ-Sen: Kean up by 7%.

[Moooooo]

Rasmussen Reports:

NEW JERSEY SENATOR
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 42%
Robert Menendez (D) 35%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Menendez was a truely dire pick. Democrats deserve to lose this...

[Democratic Hawk]

Menendez was a truely dire pick. Democrats deserve to lose this...

Looking that way :

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These look similar to the numbers that had Bush winning New Jersey.

[Adlai Stevenson]

But was Menendez that bad?  He is certainly a competent parliamentarian and legislator and deserves a chance.  I admit that I'm horrified by the thought that the GOP could wind up winning a Senate seat on election night, but Kean is certainly an excellent candidate for them; only Codey could have guaranteed this as a lock election for us.  I think that the Republicans have been edging in New Jersey for years now.  There hasn't been a GOP Senator in the Garden State since 1972, but they've come awfully close in some years.  Now I feel that New Jersey voters are rightly fed up of Democratic corruption, as well as the Republicans having the added bonus of a canidate synomynous with a period relative prosperity and honesty in the state - most people look back on Tom Kean, Sr.'s governorship fondly.

[nini2287]

Has there been any consistency in this race?

[riceowl]

So, (politically), how should Menendez vote in the Alito confirmation?

What a pickle.

[TheresNoMoney]

So, (politically), how should Menendez vote in the Alito confirmation?

Probably against, but I think it has little effect either way.

Anyway like I've said before, New Jersey is the top Republican pickup opportunity in 2006. I don't think their chances in Maryland or Minnesota are very good, but they have a realistic shot in New Jersey.

Bob Menendez's name recognition is still very low, though.

[Sam Spade]

As is usual in most New Jersey polling, lots of undecideds and swing Independents.  We'll just have to wait a while to see where they go.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, (politically), how should Menendez vote in the Alito confirmation?

What a pickle.

Against obviously. It's a socially liberal state.

[minionofmidas]

It's the American state to be most like Germany in a sense - both places poll far to the right of their nature outside election season. All the Dems need to do is work some up.
Oh, and in that it's got some sh!tty pollsters who're unable to model that.

[Sam Spade]

It's the American state to be most like Germany in a sense - both places poll far to the right of their nature outside election season. All the Dems need to do is work some up.
Oh, and in that it's got some sh!tty pollsters who're unable to model that.

That's been true since the late 1980s, roughly.  The only major exception was with Whitman in 1993.

New Jersey is the state of the Democrat-leaning independent, who likes to toy around with voting Republican but rarely does. (and who hasn't changed his mind in quite a while). 

[minionofmidas]

I don't think so. I think New Jersey is the state of the Democratic leaning independent who tells pollsters he probably won't vote.

[Virginian87]

Menendez is pure slime.  What was Corzine thinking?  Why didn't he appoint Andrews?  If we lose this race, we deserve it.

[minionofmidas]

Menendez is pure slime.  What was Corzine thinking?  Why didn't he appoint Andrews?  If we lose this race, we deserve it.

Andrews would have lost.

[AuH2O]

The consensus in DC was that Andrews was the best choice and Menendez the worst. That's among Democrats.

In a Presidential year, it would be one thing. Off year... well, Democrats can think what they want. I don't much care. Pretending Menendez has a good chance at winning will not make it so.

For all the talk about how the GOP screwed up-- railing against Harris, destroying her campaign, and then endorsing her; failing to recruit in ND, MI, etc.-- the Dems are not running a perfect operation themselves.

[Moooooo]

For all the talk about how the GOP screwed up-- railing against Harris, destroying her campaign, and then endorsing her; failing to recruit in ND, MI, etc.-- the Dems are not running a perfect operation themselves.

Thats really not the point.  The point is, had Liddy done a better job, the GOP would be looking at 60+.  She failed to recruit top tier candidates in WI, ND, FL, NE, VT, WA (thats all I can think of for now).  On the other hand, Schumer has been pretty effective at recruiting the best possible Democrats.  They may not all be great candidates, but for the most part, they are the best we have to offer in their respective states.

[AuH2O]

Oh the Democrats have done better, I just think the scale of the mistake in NJ has yet to fully be appreciated. Andrews probably had a 60-75% chance against Kean; Menendez is 30-45%.

Granted, in ND the GOP went from 50% with Hoeven to 0%, in FL 100% with Bush to 5% with Harris, and so on. But the GOP has the majority-- for the Democrats to take it away requires a much greater effort.

A NJ loss would just be totally devastating to any Democratic hopes of making up ground in the Senate. The GOP doesn't NEED every possible win, they just need to hold the line. The Democrats are in pretty dire straits right now, electorally speaking-- 1976 is really the last outright Democratic win; Clinton got 43% in 1992 and Republicans won or held Capitol Hill in '94, '96, '98, and then got the White House too in 2000 [though you could argue 1992 was an outright win for Democrats, it was still a while ago].

In any case, this cycle is important because Democrats have got to be nervous about 2008... a strong 2006 showing would go a long way towards building momentum for the big show in '08. The Democrats are in a position right now where, to win, they have to go way beyond the base-- a position they've been in for over a decade but have yet to adjust to. Mark Warner is salivated over-- despite limited experience, accomplishments, and charisma-- because in his one election he was able to please Democrats while attracting other voters.

2006 is a high stakes game for Democrats where breaking even is essentially a loss, given the current political situation. In a high stakes game, one mistake is often one too many. Picking Menendez might be that mistake.

[Beet]

Menendez is pure slime.  What was Corzine thinking?  Why didn't he appoint Andrews?  If we lose this race, we deserve it.

The rest of us don't "deserve" to pay for Jon Corzine's mistake, if it indeed turns out to be a mistake. Should we also "pay" for the fact he's a slimeball that he ditched his wife and only used his big fat checkbook to steamroller his Senate job? I wouldn't have voted for him in any primary, anyway. But I'd still rather have a Dem vote in the Senate, since we need it.

[TheresNoMoney]

The rest of us don't "deserve" to pay for Jon Corzine's mistake, if it indeed turns out to be a mistake. Should we also "pay" for the fact he's a slimeball that he ditched his wife and only used his big fat checkbook to steamroller his Senate job?

He was married to his wife for something like 30 years. You really have no idea what happened to his marriage. And I wish you could tell how Corzine is a "slimeball". No one can ever give specifics about how either Corzine or Menendez are "slimeballs". It's basically just another right-wing talking point with no substance.

And my god, talk about overreacting to one poll! This is New Jersey and Menendez still has a pretty good shot of winning. The Democrats are much more organized and will probably have more money in this race.

Also, Quinnipiac released a poll today showing Menendez ahead by 2%:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=867

While this may be Republican's best chance for a pickup, Menendez is probably still a slight favorite.

[minionofmidas]

Just more proof that when people from Virginia or Maryland talk about New Jersey, you know the opposite is true.
Honestly. Those percentages Goldie gives for Menendez and Andrews probably belong round about reversed.

[AuH2O]

Just more proof that when people from Virginia or Maryland talk about New Jersey, you know the opposite is true.
Honestly. Those percentages Goldie gives for Menendez and Andrews probably belong round about reversed.

That's not what Democrats in DC think. I asked several of them (people that work in the House).

[minionofmidas]

Just more proof that when people from Virginia or Maryland talk about New Jersey, you know the opposite is true.
Honestly. Those percentages Goldie gives for Menendez and Andrews probably belong round about reversed.

That's not what Democrats in DC think. I asked several of them (people that work in the House).

And where is DC located?
Whatever you may think of Menendez' chances, Andrews would have been quite a bad candidate in North Jersey - and that's where a majority of Jerseyans live. He wasn't doing well in these comparative polls (you know, how would x, y, and z do against Kean), by the way, despite okay name recognition. He's just run as South Jersey's favorite son a couple times too often is my guess.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, but people LIKE Andrews. No one likes Menendez. In elections, that matters.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, but people LIKE Andrews. No one likes Menendez. In elections, that matters.

No... I haven't got a clue where that opinion comes from. Most people in New Jersey DON'T LIKE Andrews, apparently.