Why was Massachusetts relatively close in 1988?

[President Johnson]

I just noticed that Michael Dukakis won his homestate of Massachusetts by only seven points in 1988, 53-45%. Why did he do so poorly in his homestate, when he did significantly better in the 1982 and 1986 gubernatorial runs? I know that state twice backed Ronald Reagan; in 1980 due to John Anderson getting almost 20% of the vote and in 1984 by a slight margin; but even George McGovern did a little better in 1972. Poppy even carried three counties and several municipalities. Why didn't Dukakis win his homestate by a wider margin?

[MIKESOWELL]

Part of it was that Bush was a great fit for the state. He was actually born there, and Connecticut was considered his state of residence I believe in 1988. Bush was the last GOP president with any ties to the moderate Yankee wing of the party. Massachusetts trended Republican during the 1980s anyway. Also, I think the Willie Horton ad hurt Dukakis somewhat even in his own home state. Bush performed exceptionally well in the suburbs in 1988.

[TDAS04]

I've wondered about this.  It's odd that Mass. was the only state where Dukakis underperformed McGovern!

Maybe Bush's New England roots, the fact that he was born in Mass, and his general appeal to suburbia all contributed to his overperformance in the state.

[Intell]

I've wondered about this.  It's odd that Mass. was the only state where Dukakis underperformed McGovern!

Maybe Bush's New England roots, the fact that he was born in Mass, and his general appeal to suburbia all contributed to his overperformance in the state.

The lower-middle class Irish vote, was democratic in 1972 because of Sargent Shriver in Massachusetts even though in other states it went to Nixon. From 1976 as a result of busing and 1980, these voters alongside other lower-middle class ethnics went republican quite strongly.

 Furthermore as a result of the busing crisis, the working class ethnic vote around Boston collapsed in 1976 and never recovered to 1968 levels or even 1972 levels in Irish areas. Dukakis, Mondale and Carter most likely won this working class ethnic vote but by 55-45 60-40 or margins rather than 70-30 or 80-20 margins. 

The WASP base also remained republican in 1988, but it was republican before 88' but not so much after 88'.

The WASP protestant republican vote that existed did most likely not collapse due to the republican party moving right but due to demographic changes, and younger generation wasp who did not associate protestant=republican. This shift occurred largely in wasp people that were not part of the elite or upper-middle class. For example, Nixon did not do that well amongst wasp's in 60' against catholic Kennedy than did Dewey against Truman in 48'.

A similar thing happened to white ethnics, due to a younger or middle aged generation who were raised during WWII or post war who did not associate catholic/ethnic= democratic. Therefore from 68' there was a shift of ethnics to the Republican Party, which more strongly within non-working class ethnic communities who had attained social mobility. Working class ethnics did shift due to the blacks but not as much.

[buritobr]

In 1960, 1964, 1968, 1972 and 1976, Massachusetts was much more D than the rest of the USA.

In 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1992, Massachusetts was not much more D than the rest of the USA. George Bush senior was on the ticket.

Since 1996, Massachusetts is much more D than the USA again.

[morgankingsley]

To be fair, Massachusetts ranking in the democratic state by state performance was not that different compared to the two other elections of that decade. In 80, it was the seventh most democratic, in 84, it was the second most, and in 88 the fourth most. In that spectrum, Mass was not really any different from the other states comparisons

[SingingAnalyst]

Good points have been raised.

1. MA was still the 4th most Dem state in 1988 (behind RI, IA, HI); the 1988 Presidential election had the least state-to-state variation of any election I am aware of, even less than 1992, 1984, and 1976, which also had relatively little variation.

2. It was in the white, ethnic (mostly Irish, Italian) areas around Boston that Dukakis most underperformed McGovern: In South Boston, Dukakis lost Wards 6 and 7 while McGovern had carried them with 63%; in Waltham, Dukakis got 53% to McGovern's 56%; in Lowell, Dukakis got 53% to McGovern's 60%. In Boston proper, Dukakis got 65% to McGovern's 66%. In the wealthier, more Protestant (or Jewish) areas, however, Dukakis outperformed McGovern: 73% to 62% in Brookline, 67% to 60% in Newton, 47% to 40% in Wellesley, 58% to 53% in Lexington. Even in Cambridge, Dukakis outperformed McGovern (77% to 74%). Also, in Agawam, a suburb of Springfield, well outside the Boston area, Dukakis outperformed McGovern 51% to 49%.

By 1990, Dukakis was quite unpopular as a governor, and was succeeded by Republican William Weld.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Ultimate irony: this was the LAST time a Republican pres. nominee won ANY counties in the state.