Biden's absolute floor against Trump?

[538Electoral]

Inspired by the Bernie Thread.

Anyway, I'd say the same as almost any other nominee. Trump wins NH, MN, NV, ME, CO, VA and NM.

Trump wins the popular vote by about 5 points in this case.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump/Pence 337 52%
Biden/Yates 201 47.5%

[7,052,770]

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think it's determined by what you mean by "absolute floor". His likely floor is close to Hillary's 2016 numbers (like others have pointed out in the Bernie thread). But in a hypothetical but theoretically plausible perfect storm, he could end up in Mondale territory. For example:

May: in the wake of couple of questionable decisions involving delegate allocation, Bloomberg denounces the DNC as a corrupt machine, and announces he's spending a billion dollars on an independent run.

July: After choosing Beto as his VP, Biden campaigns on "a return to bipartisanship in Washington" and announces that he will not pursue criminal investigations against any member of the Trump administration if he wins.

October: While debating Trump, Biden has multiple aphasia-like episodes. He and his campaign insist he's fine and release physical results that, while confirming he doesn't have dementia and didn't suffer a stroke, don't give him a clean bill of physical or mental health.

November: A videotape from the 90s is released of Biden forcing unwanted physical contact on a (then) teenage girl. The victim (a registered Democrat for years) makes a public statement denouncing Biden. Other accusers come out of the woodwork until even Trump can't get face-time anywhere but Fox News.

Under such a scenario, Biden would be lucky to crack 100 EVs.

I think Biden may have the probably highest ceiling of any likely Dem nominee, but I think he also has the lowest floor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump/Pence 337 52%
Biden/Yates 201 47.5%

Trump wont win MN and ME and CO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden-Harris 222
Trump/Pence 316

[538Electoral]

I think it's determined by what you mean by "absolute floor". His likely floor is close to Hillary's 2016 numbers (like others have pointed out in the Bernie thread). But in a hypothetical but theoretically plausible perfect storm, he could end up in Mondale territory. For example:

May: in the wake of couple of questionable decisions involving delegate allocation, Bloomberg denounces the DNC as a corrupt machine, and announces he's spending a billion dollars on an independent run.

July: After choosing Beto as his VP, Biden campaigns on "a return to bipartisanship in Washington" and announces that he will not pursue criminal investigations against any member of the Trump administration if he wins.

October: While debating Trump, Biden has multiple aphasia-like episodes. He and his campaign insist he's fine and release physical results that, while confirming he doesn't have dementia and didn't suffer a stroke, don't give him a clean bill of physical or mental health.

November: A videotape from the 90s is released of Biden forcing unwanted physical contact on a (then) teenage girl. The victim (a registered Democrat for years) makes a public statement denouncing Biden. Other accusers come out of the woodwork until even Trump can't get face-time anywhere but Fox News.

Under such a scenario, Biden would be lucky to crack 100 EVs.

I think Biden may have the probably highest ceiling of any likely Dem nominee, but I think he also has the lowest floor.

So I guess Biden is the "glass cannon" out of all the candidates in your opinion?

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden floor:

✓ President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 328 EVs.; 48.0%
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 210 EVs.; 48.3%


Biden ceiling:

✓ Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 375 EVs.; 53.3%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 163 EVs.; 45.2%

[😥]

Biden floor:

Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) 322 EVs.; 47.7%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 216 EVs.; 48.3%


Biden ceiling:

Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 413 EVs.; 54.3%
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) 125 EVs.; 44.2%

[BlueSwan]

The thing is that any democrat has a much lower likely (within the realms of realistic scenarios) floor than any republican, because republicans are THAT much more tribal - the both sides argument is quite simply wrong. We already know that Trump could be caught on video performing a third trimester abortion on his porn star mistress while afterwards declaring on twitter that the baby was a loser who deserved to die, and he would still get 40% of the vote. On the democratic side not much would have to go wrong for said candidate to hit the 30's. Even in this primary which is against the worst president in US history, lots of democrats are saying that they'll only vote for the democratic candidate if so and so wins and never if so and so wins.