538 Democratic primary model is up

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So the candidate named "No one" is leading. How can I donate this wonderful candidate?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
Sanders 37% (-9 since yesterday I believe?)
No one 36% (+6 I believe?)

Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-3 I believe?).

Majority:
No one 38% (+2 since 12th Feb)
Sanders 35% (-2)
Biden 13%
Bloomberg 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren  2%


Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-/-)
Biden 21%
Bloomberg 16%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 4%

[jaichind]

So the candidate named "No one" is leading. How can I donate this wonderful candidate?

What is Governor No One's position on health care ?

[Mr. Morden]

So the candidate named "No one" is leading. How can I donate this wonderful candidate?

What is Governor No One's position on health care ?

No One is against it, because all men must die.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Whoever is paying 538 does not like Petey B.

He is leading the delegate count with a 4% chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Whoever is paying 538 does not like Petey B.

He is leading the delegate count with a 4% chance.

There's an element of the model that you might have heard of; it's called "forecasting".  Pete has done well in the first two states and as a result has a small delegate lead.  But those two states had very favorable demographics for him.  Many of the upcoming states are unfavorable to him, and he's expected to do poorly in them, thus leading to a slim overall chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1228130548390014976

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Their whole model with Bernie above a 50% chance of getting a majority of delegates had him as winning SC? Wild.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I like how 538 has Bernie winning 49 contests by huge margins yet it still has “contested convention” as the most likely scenario.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I like how 538 has Bernie winning 49 contests by huge margins yet it still has “contested convention” as the most likely scenario.

Yeah, I just can’t take it seriously.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if this is still accurate, since another run of the model has gone through since this was posted, but this is part of how Sanders can be favored almost everywhere, yet not by enough to win a delegate majority in many cases...he's winning a plurality, but not majority, of delegates in most of these states, since ~2-3 other candidates are going to pick up delegates (that collectively add up to more than his total) in most states as things now stand:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1229538722871468039

[Mr. Morden]

Something else I noticed:

In almost every Super Tuesday state, Biden is ahead of Bloomberg in terms of probability of *winning* the state (though still behind Sanders in most cases), yet in every non-Southern Super Tuesday state, and some Southern ones too, Bloomberg is ahead of Biden in the *average* number of delegates won across all runs of the model.  How can this be?  Presumably, it's because Biden has much higher variance than Bloomberg in terms of how strong he'll be on Super Tuesday.  We already know that Bloomberg is getting 0% in Nevada and SC, since he's not competing in either state.  But Biden's strength going into Super Tuesday is highly variable, because whether he's a winner coming out of SC will make a huge difference.

So in the median case, Bloomberg will do better than Biden on Super Tuesday....not necessarily winning anything, but coming in 2nd place to Sanders all over the map.  But Biden has a wider range of outcomes, so has a better chance than Bloomberg of actually winning some states (and a better chance that Bloomberg of totally bombing).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanders narrowly retakes the lead over No One following a couple of good polls.

Sanders 38
No One 37
Biden 12
Bloomberg 8
Buttigieg 3
Warren 1
All others 0.2

[jaichind]

Something else I noticed:

In almost every Super Tuesday state, Biden is ahead of Bloomberg in terms of probability of *winning* the state (though still behind Sanders in most cases), yet in every non-Southern Super Tuesday state, and some Southern ones too, Bloomberg is ahead of Biden in the *average* number of delegates won across all runs of the model.  How can this be?  Presumably, it's because Biden has much higher variance than Bloomberg in terms of how strong he'll be on Super Tuesday.  We already know that Bloomberg is getting 0% in Nevada and SC, since he's not competing in either state.  But Biden's strength going into Super Tuesday is highly variable, because whether he's a winner coming out of SC will make a huge difference.

So in the median case, Bloomberg will do better than Biden on Super Tuesday....not necessarily winning anything, but coming in 2nd place to Sanders all over the map.  But Biden has a wider range of outcomes, so has a better chance than Bloomberg of actually winning some states (and a better chance that Bloomberg of totally bombing).

A lot of this is because the model gives a significant chance of Biden dropping out by ST.   The model gives a significant chance of Biden dropping out by SC primary which I think is way too high.  There is no way Biden drops out before SC primary.  I think the model overestimates the chances of a Biden drop out by ST but I guess he could always totally bomb NV and then SC.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 38% (+2 since 12th Feb)
Sanders 35% (-2)
Biden 13%
Bloomberg 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren  2%


Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-/-)
Biden 21%
Bloomberg 16%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 4%

After we've got a LOT of high-quality polls>>>

Plurality:
Sanders 59% (+8)
Biden 19% (-2)
Bloomberg 15% (-1)
Buttigieg 4% (-4)
Warren 3% (-1)

Majority:
Sanders 42% (+7 since Feb 14)
No one 37% (-1)
Biden 11% (-1)
Bloomberg 7% (-1)
Buttigieg 2% (-2)
Warren  1% (-1)


Interestingly "No one" has lost just 1%. Instead, Bernie have been gaining ~equally from everyone. Makes sense if your look carefully at national polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1230186803027697664

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1230186803027697664

OMG...

538 weakened since Harry Enten left.


Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

[Sorenroy]

I was actually working on updating my prediction last night, so I have a pre- and post-adjustment map. Map shows the odds of the leading candidate winning the state, not the percentage they are expected to get. Green = Sanders; Blue = Biden; Purple = Klobuchar. Since I was just looking to use these for my own purposes, I did not record Puerto Rico's percentage in the first map.


Pre-Issue:

Post-Issue:

[jaichind]

The model still has a non trivial chance that Biden has 0 delegates from SC which is him dropping out. That makes no sense given Biden performance in NV. Overall the model way overestimates the chances Biden will drop out before ST.

[Mr. Morden]

That makes no sense given Biden performance in NV.

The model was frozen just before NV voted though.  It hasn't incorporated the results from the state yet.  Presumably, once it does, its odds on Biden dropping out pre-SC will change.

[jaichind]

That makes no sense given Biden performance in NV.

The model was frozen just before NV voted though.  It hasn't incorporated the results from the state yet.  Presumably, once it does, its odds on Biden dropping out pre-SC will change.

That's fair.  Hopefully they also adjust downward the chances of a Biden drop out before ST which is pretty much zero at this stage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Post-Nevada update.  Chances of a delegate majority:

Sanders 46%
No one 40%
Biden 9%
Bloomberg 4%
Warren 0.7%
Buttigieg 0.3%

Plurarlity:

Sanders 69%
Biden 17%
Bloomberg 11%
Warren 2%
Buttigieg 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Biden favored in SC, AL, and MS.  Not sure if he’s favored anywhere else, as I haven’t checked every state.  Klobuchar still favored in MN.

While Biden is being given a notably better chance than Bloomberg of getting either a majority or plurality of all delegates, in the *average* of all runs of the model, Biden isn’t that far ahead of him in total delegates won.  And indeed, Bloomberg’s average popular vote % remains ahead of Biden in a bunch of Super Tuesday states.

Here are the top 3 popular vote share projections in the four biggest Super Tuesday states:

CA:
Sanders 31%
Bloomberg 16%
Biden 15%

TX:
Sanders 29%
Biden 19%
Bloomberg 18%

NC:
Sanders 27%
Bloomberg 21%
Biden 20%

VA:
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 22%
Biden 20%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

Majority:
Sanders 46% (+10 since FEB 19)
No one 40% (-1)
Biden 9% (-3)
Bloomberg 4% (-5)
Warren 0.7% (-0.3)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (+15)
Biden 17% (-5)
Bloomberg 11% (-7)
Warren 2% (-1)
Buttigieg 1% (-2)


Obviously NV (and polls from SC?) was a really good for Bernie, 538 model thinks.

[Mr. Morden]

With today's polls added in, they now have Sanders up to a 51% probability of getting a pledged delegate majority.