538 Democratic primary model is up

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Current chances of winning >50% of pledged delegates:

Biden 42%
Sanders 22%
No one (contested convention) 13%
Warren 12%
Buttigieg 9%
All others 2%

It also includes individual state forecasts.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Better chance of a contested convention than Warren winning the nomination? Lol.

[Gass3268]

It also has Biden winning every contest except New Hampshire and Vermont.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Better chance of a contested convention than Warren winning the nomination? Lol.

Well, there's contested and then there's contested.  Their metric is simply that no candidate has a majority of pledged delegates; I added the words "contested convention".  But in reality, if the front-runner is close to a majority but not quite there before the convention, there won't be a lot of suspense.  The front-runner is almost certain to pick up enough unpledged delegates to win.

[Pollster]

Very bullish on Biden, and underestimating Warren who is still in a decent position despite her slip.

A contested convention is so beyond unlikely.

[ElectionsGuy]

I just looked through it and looks like it needs a lot of work and improvement still. It has too wide of a range to be helpful in any way (the candidates % chances aren't much different from their poll numbers for crying out loud) and there's such a lack of variability in state results, leading to Biden only getting mid to upper 30's in states where he's easily going to win (SC and AL) but at the same time only losing two states. And Sanders only getting 41% in Vermont is laughable.

[Gustaf]

I just looked through it and looks like it needs a lot of work and improvement still. It has too wide of a range to be helpful in any way (the candidates % chances aren't much different from their poll numbers for crying out loud) and there's such a lack of variability in state results, leading to Biden only getting mid to upper 30's in states where he's easily going to win (SC and AL) but at the same time only losing two states. And Sanders only getting 41% in Vermont is laughable.

It should be noted that all predicted averages lowball candidates because they include cases where that candidate will have dropped out and get 0% by that time.

[brucejoel99]

B I D E N S U R G E

[redjohn]

Part of the problem that reflects what is almost definitely very inaccurate projections in most states is that we have far fewer polls this cycle than 2016. Since November, we've gotten just 8 polls of Iowa. In the same time frame in 2016, we got 19 polls of Iowa. We've gotten 8 polls of NH, whereas last time in this period we got 14.

There is clearly a lack of primary polling. Models can only be so accurate with far fewer polls.

[UWS]

I remember a similar model in this website four years ago for the Republiucan primaries and that we had the possibility to modify the numbers (delgates and/or percentages) for each candidate for any state at any date on the board. I guess that will be the same this time around?

[Xing]

Way too bearish on Sanders, but given 538's history and analysis, that's no surprise.

[CatoMinor]

It's almost like they are assuming all the races happen at once.

 

 

[The Mikado]

It's almost like they are assuming all the races happen at once.

 

 

It's the exact opposite. Model is factoring in that if Biden or Buttigieg win Iowa, Biden's chances everywhere skyrocket. If Sanders wins Iowa, Biden's chances drop in a lot of places.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Errrr what?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What would be interesting is if the model let you see conditional probabilities. For example, what does it project the NH results will be depending on which candidate wins in Iowa.

[Pericles]

Better chance of a contested convention than Warren winning the nomination? Lol.

Well, there's contested and then there's contested.  Their metric is simply that no candidate has a majority of pledged delegates; I added the words "contested convention".  But in reality, if the front-runner is close to a majority but not quite there before the convention, there won't be a lot of suspense.  The front-runner is almost certain to pick up enough unpledged delegates to win.

Even with the rule changes, would Bernie really be able to win enough superdelegates in that scenario? Biden, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar I can all see this being true for though.

[Pericles]

The probabilities are not that helpful rn, I think they should have delayed the launch of this and launched it after the first few early states but before Super Tuesday.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nate Silver is a sweaty moron and no one should take his “models” seriously.

[Farmlands]

It should tell us something about the accuracy of the model, at this point, that Biden came in third in the last four primary polls in California, yet he's pegged as the winner for the state. No way.

[TML]

Remember that 538 projected that Clinton had a >99% chance of winning Michigan against Sanders, and we all know what the actual result turned out to be, so please take that into account when pouring over these numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember that 538 projected that Clinton had a >99% chance of winning Michigan against Sanders, and we all know what the actual result turned out to be, so please take that into account when pouring over these numbers.

As others have said, any model is only as good as the data that goes into it. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It should tell us something about the accuracy of the model, at this point, that Biden came in third in the last four primary polls in California, yet he's pegged as the winner for the state. No way.

sigh

[Mr. Morden]

Better chance of a contested convention than Warren winning the nomination? Lol.

From Nate’s writeup:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

[The model] does not reflect such contingencies as:
   ▪   A contested convention.
   ▪   Pledged delegates (who are generally not legally bound to any candidate) being disloyal to their candidate.
   ▪   Candidates dropping out and asking their delegates to back another candidate.
   ▪   The delegate leader dropping out because of health problems or a scandal.
The model does reflect one complication: how certain delegates may be automatically reassigned if a candidate drops out before those delegates are chosen. Specifically, if a state has not yet assigned statewide delegates and a candidate who was entitled to delegates has dropped out, those delegates will be distributed among candidates who remain in the race. (District-level delegates are not reassigned, however.) This gives the leading candidates a little bit of a cushion; they can wind up with a majority of delegates on June 6 even if they wouldn’t have won one based on the delegates as originally assigned.

So for that 13% chance of no pledged delegate majority, that’s not fully accounting for the contingencies surrounding a candidate dropping out and releasing their delegates after the delegates have been awarded.  If Biden and Sanders were the two delegate leaders with Buttigieg and Warren in 3rd and 4th, but the latter two dropped out of the race, then presumably enough of the Buttigieg and Warren delegates would end up supporting Biden or Sanders to give one or the other of them a delegate majority.  Sounds like the model does a little delegate reassigment depending on the timing of the dropout, but doesn’t go all the way (because that’s not something you can easily model).

[Mr. Morden]

And an addendum to the above: Does anyone know if either Mondale in '84 or Dukakis in '88 would have won a pledged delegate majority if it wasn't for losing candidates dropping out and releasing their delegates?  Both of them only got ~40% of the primary vote nationally, so it seems possible that it would have been no majority in that case.

[SInNYC]

I find it interesting that a Biden-Buttigieg ticket is at least somewhat plausible if 538s average numbers become reality (and I know this is statistically not the right way to read it even if it were correct). Biden's predicted average is 1483 delegates which leaves him about 500 short, and Buttigieg's predicted average is 536.

Such a ticket probably pleases very few, since it doesnt get those who want a woman or POC and it obviously also doesnt please those on the left.