538 Democratic primary model is up

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanders dropped back to 46% chance of a majority after the SC poll that was very good for Biden.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders dropped back to 46% chance of a majority after the SC poll that was very good for Biden.

Yeah, I was about to post that.  I guess it's fair that Sanders not running away with this is dependent on *something* happening before Super Tuesday to cause his national #s to take a hit, and a Biden win in SC would be likeliest culprit.  So yeah, SC polling would have a pretty strong impact on the model at this point.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Sanders dropped back to 46% chance of a majority after the SC poll that was very good for Biden.

Yeah, I was about to post that.  I guess it's fair that Sanders not running away with this is dependent on *something* happening before Super Tuesday to cause his national #s to take a hit, and a Biden win in SC would be likeliest culprit.  So yeah, SC polling would have a pretty strong impact on the model at this point.

Is sounds reasonable, but IMHO they gave too much weight to a single B-rated robo-poll because it's only one conducted after NV. We'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

It looks like Biden's currently favored in SC, AL, MS, DE, and MO.  Klobuchar's favored in MN, and Sanders is favored everywhere else.

Then we have....states in which Sanders is favored, but with less than a 40% probability of winning:

OK:
Sanders 34% chance of winning
Bloomberg 31% chance of winning

AR:
Sanders 38% chance of winning
Bloomberg 28% chance of winning

FL:
Sanders 38% chance of winning
Biden 34% chance of winning

[GeorgiaModerate]

No majority has retaken the lead, 44-41 over Sanders.  Biden is at 12 and Bloomberg at 3.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1232722758951415808

[Gass3268]

Looks like Tennessee is currently a tie.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

Majority:
Sanders 46% (+10 since FEB 19)
No one 40% (-1)
Biden 9% (-3)
Bloomberg 4% (-5)
Warren 0.7% (-0.3)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (+15)
Biden 17% (-5)
Bloomberg 11% (-7)
Warren 2% (-1)
Buttigieg 1% (-2)


Obviously NV (and polls from SC?) was a really good for Bernie, 538 model thinks.

Majority:
No one 44% (+4 since FEB 23)
Sanders 43% (-3)
Biden 11% (+2)
Bloomberg 2% (-2)
Warren 0.3% (-0.4)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (-)
Biden 23% (+5)
Bloomberg 7% (-4)
Warren 1% (-1)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)



So it is basically 70% Bernie vs Biden 30% rn according to the model.

Funny enough, the 538's final probabilities in 2016 were https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


Hillary Clinton 71.4%
Donald Trump 28.6%

[jaichind]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

If it is the Biden wins big in SC this model seems to put the Sanders march to victory into jeopardy as it would produce a situation where Sanders would be on pace to win less than 40% of the delegates where it would give some legitimacy toward some convention maneuver to come up with a compromise candidate.   

[Sorenroy]

Given Biden's rise in South Carolina and Sanders's across the board fall, I decided to make an update of the map by state. Shown are the odds of the current leading candidate winning, not their share of the vote. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada are shown as the odds when the model was frozen before results started coming in.

Map as of Thursday, February 27th at 1:33 PM.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanders has dropped all the way to 31% chance of a majority, with "no majority" now at 51.  Biden is up to 16.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given Biden's rise in South Carolina and Sanders's across the board fall, I decided to make an update of the map by state. Shown are the odds of the current leading candidate winning, not their share of the vote. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada are shown as the odds when the model was frozen before results started coming in.

Map as of Thursday, February 27th at 1:33 PM.

Swap out Klobuchar's Minnesota for LaFollette's Wisconsin, and this looks a lot like the 1924 general election map.  Because of course the closest historical parallel to Bernie Sanders is Calvin Coolidge.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given Biden's rise in South Carolina and Sanders's across the board fall, I decided to make an update of the map by state. Shown are the odds of the current leading candidate winning, not their share of the vote. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada are shown as the odds when the model was frozen before results started coming in.

Map as of Thursday, February 27th at 1:33 PM.

I agree with this, for the most part. With some certainty though I would actually give Sanders North Carolina also. As I see it, if he is winning Virginia he wins The Tarheel State too. It was one of his better Southern states in 2016.

I am the least confident about how Kentucky, Minnesota, and West Virginia will vote though. I could see them also going for Biden, Sanders, and Biden respectively.

EDIT: I am retracting my belief that North Carolina will vote for Sanders along with North Carolina. The recent poll of the Tarheel State suggests that maybe it isn't that simple, and that Biden might win it after all. I stand by the rest of what I said.

[Sorenroy]

I decided to restart something I did in 2016 and look at the delegate race from the perspective of the percentage of remaining delegates needed for a majority for each candidate. Below is the current race as of today:


Percent Needed:
Sanders — 50.18%
Buttigieg — 50.67%
Biden — 50.95%
Warren — 51.13%
Klobuchar — 51.16%
Everyone Else — 51.34%


Additionally, I decided to use 538's projections to find what this race might look like moving forward:



Every candidate but Biden and Sanders have no path to a majority after March 17th (Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and Arizona), and both Biden and Sanders lose their path on April 28th (New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware). Hypothetically, if only one candidate ended a day with a path to a majority, we could see a late rally around the leader effect to avoid a convention, but with both Biden and Sanders missing the mark on the same date it's harder to envision. Of course, it's likely that most of the minor candidates drop out once they hit a rough Super Tuesday and remove their small continued collection of delegates from the process. Again, an issue with following 538's model where candidates might be winning by 50 points or have dropped out at a given point in the race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

[jaichind]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

The model seems to very heavily invest in a pro-Biden momentum from a significant victory in SC.  Main risk there is not the significant Biden victory in SC which now seems likely but if Biden have enough infrastructure in ST states to take advantage of a post-SC surge. 

[ElectionsGuy]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

Their model, as in the past, weighs way too much on polling. Two good polls for Biden? A large change in the national picture. Their post-Iowa forecast was way to friendly to Sanders and Buttigieg so we can expect further large swings. If Sanders does "better than expected" on Super Tuesday, then we'll see a gigantic swing towards Sanders.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

Their model, as in the past, weighs way too much on polling. Two good polls for Biden? A large change in the national picture. Their post-Iowa forecast was way to friendly to Sanders and Buttigieg so we can expect further large swings. If Sanders does "better than expected" on Super Tuesday, then we'll see a gigantic swing towards Sanders.

What other information are they supposed to use besides polls?

[Gass3268]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

Their model, as in the past, weighs way too much on polling. Two good polls for Biden? A large change in the national picture. Their post-Iowa forecast was way to friendly to Sanders and Buttigieg so we can expect further large swings. If Sanders does "better than expected" on Super Tuesday, then we'll see a gigantic swing towards Sanders.

What other information are they supposed to use besides polls?

Demographics

[Mr. Morden]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

Their model, as in the past, weighs way too much on polling. Two good polls for Biden? A large change in the national picture. Their post-Iowa forecast was way to friendly to Sanders and Buttigieg so we can expect further large swings. If Sanders does "better than expected" on Super Tuesday, then we'll see a gigantic swing towards Sanders.

What other information are they supposed to use besides polls?

Demographics

I mean, it does use demographics as well, but it has to use some kind of information to determine which demographics are going to vote for which candidate.  The main way to do that so far is polls.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The 538 model has been updated with the SC results, and Biden’s chances of winning a majority went down.

[Oryxslayer]

The 538 model has been updated with the SC results, and Biden’s chances of winning a majority went down.

Because nobody is now at 60%. If Tuesday goes as expected, we should probably be modeling types of pluralities rather than majorities.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New model has no majority at 60%, but Biden narrowly trailing Sanders being pretty close in delegates. When Bloomberg drops, this probably means Biden and Sanders finish with a very similar number of delegates. As such, I'd give Sanders a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, and Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination on the second ballot. As such, Biden is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee, has been the frontrunner from the start, and has honestly run a solid campaign. It's time to unite behind our likely nominee.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, 538 has Biden winning TX, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AR on super tuesday. Klob is up in MN and Sanders takes CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa. So much for a Sanders landslide.

[Gracile]

Also, 538 has Biden winning TX, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AR on super tuesday. Klob is up in MN and Sanders takes CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa. So much for a Sanders landslide.

Those results (aside from TX and maybe NC) are pretty consistent with the CW prior to South Carolina - most people were not expecting a Sanders landslide across the board.