MI-Glengariff: Peters +4
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  MI-Glengariff: Peters +4
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Author Topic: MI-Glengariff: Peters +4  (Read 2301 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: January 08, 2020, 11:47:35 PM »

Peters (D-inc.): 44%
James (R): 40%

https://www.scribd.com/document/442183414/January-2020-Statewide-Survey
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 11:57:58 PM »

Everything is going back to 278 EC map, James will fail, again
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2020, 12:35:03 AM »

This board would be treating this race very differently if the R was the incumbent and we were getting numbers like this
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 02:37:48 AM »

Too many undecideds in this poll
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2020, 03:11:06 AM »

Lean D.

Peters is favored, but should take the challenge seriously. I wouldn't be surprised if James outruns Mr. Trump by a few points.
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 03:23:42 AM »

Tossup/Tilt D, Peters is slightly favored to win reelection, but James is strong challenger. With NC and maybe KS, it will be two the most competitive races
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 04:02:03 AM »

This also has Biden winning by 7%, so yet another poll showing Peters underperforming the Democratic nominee for president by 3 points.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2020, 10:11:24 AM »

This is a great poll for James. Biden +7 and Peters +4 shows that he is vulnerable. Toss-up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2020, 10:54:28 AM »

Peters' chances are way underrated. If Republicans couldn't pick up Stabenow's seat then it's not likely they will defeat Peters. What we saw in 2018 was that the rural areas trended Republican but not enough to counteract the suburbs.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2020, 11:22:34 AM »

Here's how this race is actually Likely/Safe D...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2020, 11:38:41 AM »

This also has Biden winning by 7%, so yet another poll showing Peters underperforming the Democratic nominee for president by 3 points.
We saw this a lot in 2016.  Ross, Murphy, Duckworth, Feingold, Cortez-Masto, Barksdale, Hassan, Judge, Strickland, and McGinty all underperformed Hillary.  Bayh, Gray, and Kander were the only ones to outperform her.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2020, 11:40:41 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 12:08:16 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Here's how this race is actually Likely/Safe D...

Gary Peters is an incumbent you see, and Michigan hasn't voted Republican for Senate since 1994. Although I'm sure the folks at Inside Elections could give a more thorough justification for their rating...
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2020, 11:57:18 AM »

This also has Biden winning by 7%, so yet another poll showing Peters underperforming the Democratic nominee for president by 3 points.
We saw this a lot in 2016.  Ross, Murphy, Duckworth, Feingold, Cortez-Masto, Barksdale, Hassan, Judge, Strickland, and McGinty all underperformed Hillary.  Bayh, Gray, and Kander were the only ones to outperform her.

But was it more that the Democrats underperformed Hillary, or that the Republican candidates overperformed Trump? The latter is definitely true with Rubio, Portman, Grassley, Toomey and Isakson at the very least.

Plus if we go back to 2012, Nelson, McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, Heitkamp, Brown, Kaine, Menendez (!), Stabenow, Carmona, Casey, and Kerrey all did better than Obama to varying degrees, so it's not always that Democratic Senate candidates do worse than the presidential nominee.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2020, 11:58:58 AM »

Alarm bells should be going off!
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2020, 05:37:36 PM »

This also has Biden winning by 7%, so yet another poll showing Peters underperforming the Democratic nominee for president by 3 points.
We saw this a lot in 2016.  Ross, Murphy, Duckworth, Feingold, Cortez-Masto, Barksdale, Hassan, Judge, Strickland, and McGinty all underperformed Hillary.  Bayh, Gray, and Kander were the only ones to outperform her.

I bolded all the ones who were facing incumbents who weren't as scandal ridden as Roy Blunt and thereby had crossover appeal to "put a check on Hillary" voters, name recognition, time to build more goodwill in their respective states, tailor their stances to their respective states, et cetera.

It seems to be a common occurence for Senate (and House) incumbents who aren't scandal ridden and who don't face particularly strong opponents, to outperform the Presidential candidates from their parties in their respective states.

Take a look at what happened in 2008 and 2012 - quite a few incumbents outperformed Obama.


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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2020, 05:44:47 PM »

John James is done, Peters will win
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Horus
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« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2020, 02:01:46 PM »

Tilt James
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2020, 06:55:51 PM »

This board would be treating this race very differently if the R was the incumbent and we were getting numbers like this

It depends on the state. If Texas or Tennessee, we’d be saying that it’s lean incumbent but they’re going to win because of the tendency of the state.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2020, 12:57:31 PM »

Gary Peters is Bill Nelson 2.0.
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