MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

Perhaps. But Michigan was the closest state in 2016 and if this poll is accurate, especially considering the surprisingly high approval-disapproval ratings in it, suggests that Trump is guaranteed to do worse in the country as a whole than in 2016. Michigan is easily the first  Trump state to flip and this poll may suggest that it flipping in 2016 was a fluke due to a perfect storm for Trump, who only barely flipped it.

This poll should also probably grant Gary Peters some reassurance.

Of course, it is indeed early, we'll see what happens. But Democrats aren't going to take this state for granted like in 2016, and even though it may never vote for Democrats by double digits ever again, your state isn't as (non-Atlas) red as you think it is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

Perhaps. But Michigan was the closest state in 2016 and if this poll is accurate, especially considering the surprisingly high approval-disapproval ratings in it, suggests that Trump is guaranteed to do worse in the country as a whole than in 2016.

Or... the poll is crap. Trump's approval in this state poll is -2, yet he's down 7 against Biden. His national approval right now is -7 or -8. If Michigan's approval of Trump is 5 to 6 points right of the national numbers, and he's down 7 here, is he down 12 or 13 points nationally? Complete nonsense, especially when his favorability in 2016 was something like 38/60 and he lost by only 2 nationally.

The polls are missing something, Trump will not be polling 5% behind his approval ratings by election day, and most 2018 exit polls actually showed Republican candidates polling ahead of Trump's approval. Call me a poll truther or whatever, I just see things that don't make sense.

Michigan is easily the first  Trump state to flip and this poll may suggest that it flipping in 2016 was a fluke due to a perfect storm for Trump, who only barely flipped it.

This tired analysis again...

This poll should also probably grant Gary Peters some reassurance.

No it shouldn't, he's underperforming Biden by 3 points, but then again there are more undecideds in that race because it's a weird case where the incumbent and the challenger are roughly equally known.

But Democrats aren't going to take this state for granted like in 2016

They probably won't, but it's essential to mention the way they took it for granted in 2016 was by being overconfident in polls showing Democrats leading by mid to upper single digits without being over 50%, and that's exactly what this poll is. Therefore they decided to ExPaNd ThE mAp only to realize on election day Hillary leading with only 45-46% in most Midwest states didn't translate to a secure victory like they thought. Just some food for thought. If the Democrats learned from 2016 they should treat all these states like they are pure toss-ups, even when polls show them comfortably ahead.

Glengariff tends to be slightly favorable to Democrats, but they were still pretty accurate with the Michigan Governor's race in 2018. That's why I'm not counting out this poll entirely.

You are right though, the Trump approval rating versus his performance in the state is also odd for the reason you described. There's at least something off with that.