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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems
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Author Topic: MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems  (Read 1370 times)
#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« on: January 08, 2020, 11:44:19 pm »

Biden: 50% (+7)
Trump: 43%

Bloomberg: 47% (+6)
Trump: 41%

Sanders: 49% (+4)
Trump: 45%

Warren: 46% (+2)
Trump: 44%

Buttigieg: 45% (+2)
Trump: 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/442183414/January-2020-Statewide-Survey

I think we need to reassess Bloomberg's electability.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 11:49:05 pm »

Would've liked to see them poll the primary too.
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SN2903
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2020, 11:56:30 pm »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.
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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 12:20:34 am »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

I hate to burst your bubble, but it's highly unlikely Trump holds your state this year.
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marty
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2020, 12:26:43 am »

Change since last poll




Trump v. Biden (Trump +5)
Trump v. Sanders (Trump +8)
Trump v. Warren (Trump +2)


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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 12:29:12 am »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both are very, very famous people. Warren less so, but is one of the most prominent Senators. Buttigieg I'll give you.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 03:14:25 am »

Not bad, especially for Bloomberg. Lean D for now. Not that it means much 10 months out.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2020, 03:15:01 am »

Not a great poll for Trump, but considering how MI polls tend to suck we should take it with a grain of salt
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Hollywood
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2020, 03:32:03 am »

Not a great poll for Trump, but considering how MI polls tend to suck we should take it with a grain of salt

This could literally be a poll from October, 2016.  Democrats need to start polling a three-way race with former Democrat Lincoln Chafee, who is the Libertarian candidate this year.  Last Presidential election, Gary Johnson took 3.6% of the vote in Michigan. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2020, 04:46:54 am »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 04:51:04 am by pbrower2a »

Bloomberg has made a huge ad buy.  

Approval 47-49, But match-ups favor Democrats opposite to the way that the go in Arizona and Iowa. Different pollster, of course.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2020, 06:03:11 am »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.
.
But you said Sanders was gonna lose to Trump in MI and John James was gonna beat Peters
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2020, 09:47:07 am »

Not a great poll for Trump, but considering how MI polls tend to suck we should take it with a grain of salt

This could literally be a poll from October, 2016.  Democrats need to start polling a three-way race with former Democrat Lincoln Chafee, who is the Libertarian candidate this year.  Last Presidential election, Gary Johnson took 3.6% of the vote in Michigan. 

Highly doubt Chafee gets the Libertarian nomination. Adam Kokesh is much more likely.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2020, 09:49:55 am »

Believable numbers. Maybe too generous for the Dems but the Dems have definitely the edge here. It's their state to lose right now.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2020, 09:57:07 am »

Change since last poll




Trump v. Biden (Trump +5)
Trump v. Sanders (Trump +8)
Trump v. Warren (Trump +2)




Are the numbers in parentheses the previous results, or the net change?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2020, 10:05:17 am »

Change since last poll




Trump v. Biden (Trump +5)
Trump v. Sanders (Trump +8)
Trump v. Warren (Trump +2)




Are the numbers in parentheses the previous results, or the net change?

Net Change
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2020, 11:11:05 am »

A colleague theorized just the other day that Bloomberg's relentless anti-Trump ad campaigns nationwide are helping his general election numbers more than his primary numbers, and this poll appears to support that thinking.

Perhaps Bloomberg's strategy is to build an electability narrative for himself nationwide while the other candidates focus solely on the first four states, and then use that manufactured narrative to blunt Biden (likely already weakened by a Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg victory narrative out if IA and NH) come Super Tuesday.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2020, 11:12:26 am »

Doesn’t factor in Reverse Coattails from UT John James.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2020, 11:13:58 am »

Imagine actually believing that Trump would lose MI by 7 and simultaneously win GA by 7. How stupid are the people of Atlas?!
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Annatar
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« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2020, 11:34:09 am »

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1215252385452392449

Education sample in poll is off, is 47% college, may make difference in state like MI where college and non-college voters vote differently.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2020, 11:39:26 am »

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1215252385452392449

Education sample in poll is off, is 47% college, may make difference in state like MI where college and non-college voters vote differently.

I dont agree. The 2018 exit poll had 51% of Michigan voters having a degree. An associates degree is a college degree. I think, if anything, the polls phrasing is the issue.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/michigan
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Annatar
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« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2020, 11:40:55 am »

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1215252385452392449

Education sample in poll is off, is 47% college, may make difference in state like MI where college and non-college voters vote differently.

I dont agree. The 2018 exit poll had 51% of Michigan voters having a degree. An associates degree is a college degree. I think, if anything, the polls phrasing is the issue.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/michigan

The 2016 exit polls have been recognised to be off in education, the 2018 ones corrected for that.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
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« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2020, 12:36:54 pm »

Imagine actually believing that Trump would lose MI by 7 and simultaneously win GA by 7. How stupid are the people of Atlas?!

Party like it's 2012! Trends aren't only fake, they're going to reverse themselves!
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2020, 12:59:11 pm »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

I hate to burst your bubble, but it's highly unlikely Trump holds your state this year.
way too early to make that claim
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2020, 01:01:04 pm »


It is way too early to make 99.9% of the claims that you make, but that has never stopped you.
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SN2903
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2020, 01:17:44 pm »


It is way too early to make 99.9% of the claims that you make, but that has never stopped you.
I state my opinion that doesn't mean they are predictions I'm not making any real predictions until a week before the election
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