How many votes will Alito get for confirmation? (2)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

I can see Byrd voting yes but not either from NJ. Neither Sarbanes nor Mikulski gave Roberts any love, so why should Menendez or Lautenberg?

Menendez is going to have a tough race against Kean next year, and he would be smart (imo) to appease that large Italian-American Catholic voting bloc in the state, perhaps with a move like this. 

New Jersey is a socially liberal state. Why would they want to confirm a justice just because he's the same nationality?

If Bush nominated a far right Swedish-American Lutheran judge, I sure as hell wouldn't support him, and I don't see any type of DFLer that would support him just because of that.

[Sam Spade]

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

I can see Byrd voting yes but not either from NJ. Neither Sarbanes nor Mikulski gave Roberts any love, so why should Menendez or Lautenberg?

Menendez is going to have a tough race against Kean next year, and he would be smart (imo) to appease that large Italian-American Catholic voting bloc in the state, perhaps with a move like this. 

New Jersey is a socially liberal state. Why would they want to confirm a justice just because he's the same nationality?

If Bush nominated a far right Swedish-American Lutheran judge, I sure as hell wouldn't support him, and I don't see any type of DFLer that would support him just because of that.

Please don't keep talking about that which you don't understand, BRTD.  Your comparison is simply not accurate.

Stick to strip clubs; you're much more knowledgeable about that.

[nini2287]

Jeffords is a no-go

Johnson (as we learned) is a yes.

Lincoln and Bingaman are also no-gos.

Looks like Lieberman's a no.  Time to get him out of my sig.

[Sam Spade]

Considering all this, I will take my chance and move my number down from 62 to 61.

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

According to the AP, Lincoln has said she will vote against.  Byrd and Johnson will support.

There are now 55 confirmed votes for Alito, 52 Republicans and Nelson (NE), Byrd and Johnson.

I still stand at 61, with Byrd replacing Lincoln, of course. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Menendez is going to have a tough race against Kean next year, and he would be smart (imo) to appease that large Italian-American Catholic voting bloc in the state, perhaps with a move like this.

I have to agree that this is a ridiculous argument. Italian-Americans?? Are you serious?

An Italian-American would be someone who just moved to America from Italy. Alito is an American with some percentage of Italian heritage. Hell, I'm 25% Italian. Does that mean I want to see Alito on the Supreme Court? Alito is a white American with European heritage, just like 70% of the country.

I read 2 or 3 right-wing blogs that made the same argument and I thought it was hilarious. Right-wingers come up with the wackiest justifications sometimes.

[riceowl]

DK: "True, we're moving in the same direction as Nazi Germany. And true, we all are to blame. I'm to blame. Everyone.

We have to keep hope. The German people rolled over for too long and they paid the price. Bush and his ilk will do that to us too if we let them. But,we still have a chance to bring righteousness back to America. I don't think all is lost yet. We have to stay energized."

Hi Scoooooooooooonie!

[riceowl]

Oh, and:

Carper - no

Collins - yes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have to agree that this is a ridiculous argument. Italian-Americans?? Are you serious?

Are you or are you not familer with the concept of "identity politics"?

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Don't play silly buggers with words *again*; [insert country here]-American is considered to mean someone of [insert country here] heritage and has done for longer than you've been alive.

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And? He might also *identify* with being Italian *as well as* identify with being American. Hey, a lot of other people do, don't they? And what's *wrong* with that, exactly?

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No, and I don't think that Sam ever suggested anything like that...

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Wait, so indentifing people by skin colour is fine, but indentifiying people by cultural stuff *isn't*? Aren't you supposed to be a liberal?

[TheresNoMoney]

My opinion is that a white American with some amount of Italian heritage is not going to base their opinion of a Supreme Court Justice on the fact that he also has some amount of Italian heritage. My opinion is that it is a ridiculous argument.

Feel free to disagree, but that is my opinion. Three is no danger of Menendez losing the so-called "Italian-American" vote over his voting against Alito.

[Ebowed]

GOP + Landrieu + Nelson (NE) + some other Democrat for 58 votes.

Retracting that.
GOP+Nelson+Byrd+Johnson is 58, but I think at least two more Democrats (Landrieu and one other) will break... so I'll re-predict at 60.

[riceowl]

Cloture motion filed.

[A18]

Cloture motion filed.

What?

[riceowl]

Frist scheduled a cloture vote for Monday afternoon; Reid didn't object.

[A18]

Okay, so they're dragging it out until Monday. What a stupid thing to do.

[Lincoln Republican]

I picked 58 to confirm.

So next week the ranting, raving, looney left of the country can go off on their feigned, lame and incoherent tangents, about how the nation has now been set back 30 years.

Please, spare us all your crocodile tears.

[Smash255]

This comes from a post I made on another site a week and a half ago

Tough one. Have no clue how either Collins or Snowe will vote. Both voted against the nomination of Pryor. For now I will say they will vote for the nomination, but of those I listed that would vote for the nomination (both of the GOP & Dems) they are the ones most likely to vote against


Total 60 for 40 against
For 54-R 6-D 0-I
Against 1-R 38-D 1-I


Chafee who voted against both Owen & Pryor is the only Republican not to vote for the nomination (though I wouldn';t be suprised one bit if Snowe & Collins vote with the Dems.

Dems who will vote for the nomination. Nelson-NE, Byrd-WV, Pryor-AR, Lincoln-AR, Landreiu-LA, and Johnson-SD
Tim J | Email | Homepage | 01.17.06 - 12:45 am | #

[riceowl]

Collins has said yes.

[Sam Spade]

Pryor will vote no, but will not support a filibuster.

I move my total down to 60, without Pryor.

[Sam Spade]

As of right now, the confirmed vote is 56-35, from everything I've read.  53 Republicans, 3 Democrats (Byrd, Johnson, Nelson (NE)) in favor, 35 Democrats opposed.

Kent Conrad of ND says that he is "leaning towards confirmation", as per AP.

The undecided Senators we haven't heard from yet:

Republican:
Chafee
Snowe

Democrat:
Dorgan
Landrieu
Lautenberg
Menendez
Rockefeller

If anyone knows anything, please post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jay Rockefeller won't be announcing his decision until just before the vote

[Blue Rectangle]

The rumor mill at DU is upset over Dorgan's "apparent decision to support Alito".  Dorgan has not announced any decision and this is probably meaningless.

DU is also mounting an effort to call Salazar, but he announced days ago that he would vote no.

[Sam Spade]

The rumor mill at DU is upset over Dorgan's "apparent decision to support Alito".  Dorgan has not announced any decision and this is probably meaningless.

DU is also mounting an effort to call Salazar, but he announced days ago that he would vote no.

Wrt Salazar, I think they're trying to get him to oppose the filibuster, which he has said he would oppose.

[riceowl]

Chafee is officially....a no.

[A18]

I say 56.

I of course meant 58.

[Jake]

58 - Republicans plus Nelson, Landrieu, and Pryor.

Right number, but included three horrible people instead of the three other Democratic freedom fighters.