How many votes will Alito get for confirmation? (2)

[A18]

Now that we have a better idea.

I say 56.

[Blue Rectangle]

I still think all 55 Republicans will vote yes.  There will be less than five Democrats voting yes, and maybe only one (Ben Nelson).

56 looks likely.

[The Duke]

The Republicans plus Nelson, which I'm pretty sure is what I said before.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  I am actually still more bullish than most around here.  Nelson (FL) and Stabenow were never interested in voting for him.  About the only one I would consider half a surprise was the quick no by Salazar.

Considering all this, I will take my chance and move my number down from 62 to 61.

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

If any of the Republicans break, expect it to be Collins, Snowe, Chafee, in that order.

Alito will receive anywhere in the range of 53-63 votes.  Any more or any less would be extremely unexpected.

A Democrat filibuster will receive the nuclear option to where there will not be judicial filibusters anymore.  Therefore, I expect that to not happen.  I think there are plenty more than 60 votes to meet cloture.  These may not necessarily be supporters of Alito.

What the Republicans should want to happen is for Alito to receive under 60 votes.  The Democrats should want him to receive over 60, because defeating him ain't gonna happen at this point, unless a DWI scandal comes out or something. 

We can already see how the far left-wing is foaming at the mouth over a Justice Alito.  If he receives less than 60 votes in the end, their foaming could turn into full-scale attack with the intelligence of some of these people.  Therefore, the Democrats will be smart and give him enough votes to avoid filibuster.

Btw, don't bet any money on this.  I wouldn't. 

[Bdub]

I say he will get 57 votes.  Nelson and one other Democrat will vote for him.

[Schmitz in 1972]

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

I can see Byrd voting yes but not either from NJ. Neither Sarbanes nor Mikulski gave Roberts any love, so why should Menendez or Lautenberg?

[Sam Spade]

All 55 Republicans, plus Nelson (NE), Johnson, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu and a surprise.  The surprise could be someone obvious like Byrd or someone not as obvious (thinking from NJ potentially).  That is my prediction.

I can see Byrd voting yes but not either from NJ. Neither Sarbanes nor Mikulski gave Roberts any love, so why should Menendez or Lautenberg?

Menendez is going to have a tough race against Kean next year, and he would be smart (imo) to appease that large Italian-American Catholic voting bloc in the state, perhaps with a move like this. 

New Jersey isn't as much a Democratic state, as it is a state full of Democrat-leaning Independents (at least in recent year 1990s-2000s).  Maryland is very different. 

[Blue Rectangle]

Hmmm...  I am actually still more bullish than most around here.  Nelson (FL) and Stabenow were never interested in voting for him.  About the only one I would consider half a surprise was the quick no by Salazar.

There was an editorial in the Colorado Springs paper this morning about how the editors are getting tired of Salazar's overly-deliberate deliberations.  His "no" wasn't all that quick.

[MasterJedi]

56 sounds good, at least for the lowest number he'll probably get.

[Dave from Michigan]

60

[phk]

I'd say

Every Republican Senator + Nelson (NE) + Byrd (WV) + A Democrat from Arkansas + Landrieu.

55 + 4 = 59.

[Virginian87]

56.  60 at the maximum.

[WalterMitty]

i originally said 65.

ill say 60 now.

[riceowl]

I'll continue updating...?

Dodd has said no, Liebermann's still mum.

[Jake]

58 - Republicans plus Nelson, Landrieu, and Pryor.

[riceowl]

and, from the "Montrose Daily Press," whatever that is:

Fifty Senate Republicans, plus one Democrat, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, have publicly committed to vote for Alito through their representatives, interviews with The Associated Press or news releases.

No Republicans have opposed him and five have yet to declare how they will vote: Sens. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine and Ted Stevens of Alaska.

So...53 guaranteed.  Just as was always thought.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I generally think that Frist is a dullard, but, he was right in that Alioto is the Democrats nightmare.

Clearly he is well qualified for the high court, but the left wing organizations are cracking the whip of obedience.

It will be interesting to see which Democrats have the stones to stand up to the braying of the left wing nut cases and vote for Alioto.

[A18]

It's 'Alito.'

[riceowl]

I ate at Alioto's last month in San Fran

[angus]

If anyone's interested, CSPAN just played the committee vote.  It went exactly along party lines.  Probably old news to many of you.  Now they are playing Specter and other members of the committee making some press soundbites.

[A18]

They played it live earlier today.

[nini2287]

I say 57 - All Republicans + Landrieu + Nelson (NE)

[Ebowed]

GOP + Landrieu + Nelson (NE) + some other Democrat for 58 votes.

[riceowl]

I'll also paste this headcount site in the new thread:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007811

[riceowl]

Jeffords is a no-go

Johnson (as we learned) is a yes.

Lincoln and Bingaman are also no-gos.