will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi
My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years
2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC.
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized. WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF. Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC.
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote
As for 2024 LS elections on paper Modi should step down and hand the BJP reigns to Amit Shah. Usually after a landslide victory like 2019 previous Indian rulings parties overreach their mandate and is face with an unexpected defeat in the next election (1977 and 1989). So far given the COVID-19 crisis and PRC border dispute where aggressive government action is viewed in a positive way by the electorate the BJP seems to be avoiding that fate even though 2024 is far away. INC's weak leadership under Rahul Gandhi clearly will also help BJP. If Modi can operate the BJP in a way to help Amit Shah lead the BJP to victory in 2024 then he will go down in Indian history as the most consequential PM with the exception of Nehru. A lot could still go wrong like Modi trying to stay on for a third term or Amit Shah not having the charisma like Modi but the most likely future is a Amit Shah led BJP victory in 2024.
Do you think bjp will make inroads in the south, imo they have to because it’ll serve as a buffer when they eventually lose seats in the Hindi heartland
