2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
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jaichind
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« Reply #150 on: August 12, 2020, 10:07:52 AM »

Now that the Bihar assembly is most likely going to take place by Oct it would be useful to get a sense of what the seat sharing talks are looking like.

In 2015 the seat sharing was

NDA
BJP     157
LJP       42
RLSP    23
HAM     21

UPA
JD(U)  101
RJD     101
INC      41

On the UPA side with JD(U) gone the RJD is looking for a larger share of seats.

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/bihar-election-2020-rjd-congress-agree-on-163-plus-80-formula/2052686/

Seems to indicate that RJD and INC have agreed on a 163-80 split.  Namely RJD will get 163 and then RJD will negotiate with VIP and CPI(ML) to hand out seats out of its 163 quota.  INC is given 80 and will negotiate with HAM, RLSP, and perhaps CPI out of its quota of 80.   On the INC front most likely the split will be INC 40 HAM 20 RLSP 20 although HAM most likely would not accept this and could defect to NDA.  It is not clear if HAM could get a better deal from NDA.  RJD most likely will give VIP 10 and CPI(ML) 10 although the alliance with CPI(ML) will be most likely be partial.

On the NDA side it seems the BJP is looking for at least 102 while JD(U) wants at least 120 with LJP demanding  at least the 42 it got in 2015.  It is clear that these 3 claims are not compatible.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jd-u-snubs-ljp-says-alliance-in-bihar-is-with-bjp-nda-rift-widens/story-fXDqFAkiiWN9CSzPuVxDAI.html

LJP's demand of 42 seats is clearly not realistic given that the NDA now have 2 large parties (BJP and JD(U)) versus 1 back in 2015.  It is likely that LJP will defect from NDA although it would not be clear if LJP will join UPA or go it alone.  If HAM joins NDA then it is more likely LJP will join UPA since both parties claim to be "the Dalit party" and any one alliance cannot have two "the Dalit party."  In 2015 this was clearly a problem that LJP-HAM rivalry dogged the NDA campaign.
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jaichind
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« Reply #151 on: August 16, 2020, 02:56:51 PM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rjd-cong-finalise-seat-sharing-deal-manjhi-s-ham-not-happy/story-frO6cHWG4M4N1RupprX3WP.html

Seems to indicate the RJD-INC deal in Bihar is RJD 152 INC 91 as opposed to RJD 163 INC 80.  It seems RJD will allocate 30 seats (!!) to VIP and a few to CPI(ML) as a part of a likely tactical alliance.  INC will keep 42 out of the 91 for itself and allocate 49 to RLSP HAM and CPI where I assume it will be something like RLSP 23 HAM 20 CPI 5.  It seems the only UPA ally that is unhappy is HAM and according to

https://english.newstracklive.com/news/patna-jeetan-ram-manjhi-party-hampraising-cm-nitish-what-a-sign-for-chirag-pas-wan-brvj-mc25-nu870-ta870-ta277-1112601-1.html

HAM is warming up to Nitish Kumar as LJP is getting more hostile with the chances of these two parties swapping places becoming more likely by the day.

Main problem for UPA is that if LJP leaves NDA it is reactivity easier for NDA to accommodate HAM as JD(U)-BJP will most likely allocate it 20-25 seats allowing both BJP and JD(U) to contest 100+ seats.  If LJP joines UPA then they will demand 40 seats at least and RJD will have to eat more into its quota to accommodate LJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: August 20, 2020, 07:07:56 PM »

In Bihar, as expected HAM exits from UPA mostly due to not getting the number of seats it wants.  Not clear where HAM will end up.  Going it alone would be suicide but trying to join NDA would mean it would not get that many seats in NDA (at most 20 which is around what it would get if it would have stayed in UPA or even less.)  Also given the HAM-LJP rivalry over being THE DALIT PARTY there is no way LJP would accept HAM entering NDA.  But with LJP also likely to exit NDA unless it gets it quota of seats LJP could also exit.  Given HAM was really a JD(U) splinter perhaps the best way forward is for former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi to swallow his pride and arrange for HAM to merge HAM back into JD(U) by accepting the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi's former leader Nitish Kumar of JD(U).

All things equal this makes seat sharing arrangements in UPA much easier and it would now be likely that CPI and CPI(ML) can be accommodated.  Still LJP might come knocking soon to join UPA and then the tussle over seat sharing will begin again.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #153 on: August 21, 2020, 10:36:02 AM »

will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi
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jaichind
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« Reply #154 on: August 21, 2020, 12:06:13 PM »

will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC. 
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC. 
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.   
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote

As for 2024 LS elections on paper Modi should step down and hand the BJP reigns to Amit Shah.  Usually after a landslide victory like 2019 previous Indian rulings parties overreach their mandate and is face with an unexpected defeat in the next election (1977 and 1989).  So far given the COVID-19 crisis and PRC border dispute where aggressive government action is viewed in a positive way by the electorate the BJP seems to be avoiding that fate even though 2024 is far away.  INC's weak leadership under Rahul Gandhi clearly will also help BJP.  If Modi can operate the BJP in a way to help Amit Shah lead the BJP to victory in 2024 then he will go down in Indian history as the most consequential PM with the exception of Nehru.  A lot could still go wrong like Modi trying to stay on for a third term or Amit Shah not having the charisma like Modi but the most likely future is a Amit Shah led BJP victory in 2024.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #155 on: August 21, 2020, 12:55:11 PM »

will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC. 
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC. 
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.   
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote

As for 2024 LS elections on paper Modi should step down and hand the BJP reigns to Amit Shah.  Usually after a landslide victory like 2019 previous Indian rulings parties overreach their mandate and is face with an unexpected defeat in the next election (1977 and 1989).  So far given the COVID-19 crisis and PRC border dispute where aggressive government action is viewed in a positive way by the electorate the BJP seems to be avoiding that fate even though 2024 is far away.  INC's weak leadership under Rahul Gandhi clearly will also help BJP.  If Modi can operate the BJP in a way to help Amit Shah lead the BJP to victory in 2024 then he will go down in Indian history as the most consequential PM with the exception of Nehru.  A lot could still go wrong like Modi trying to stay on for a third term or Amit Shah not having the charisma like Modi but the most likely future is a Amit Shah led BJP victory in 2024.

Do you think bjp will make inroads in the south, imo they have to because it’ll serve as a buffer when they eventually lose seats in the Hindi heartland
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jaichind
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« Reply #156 on: August 21, 2020, 06:06:13 PM »


Do you think bjp will make inroads in the south, imo they have to because it’ll serve as a buffer when they eventually lose seats in the Hindi heartland

Given the BJP political paradigm is now about building an ethno-state based on the Indo-Aryan Hindu identity there is very little chance the deep South (TN and Kerala) will vote for BJP in large numbers.  Karnataka whose Kannada is somewhat sanskritized is more open to BJP while there is a chance of AP and Telegana which speaks Telegu with some level of Sanskritization could also be open to voting for BJP in larger numbers.  In the deep South the BJP can only count on finding local allies using its clout at the Federal level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: August 22, 2020, 07:21:02 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-elections-nitish-kumars-party-jd-u-wont-gain-anything-tej-pratap-on-father-in-laws-move-2283301

3 rebel RJD MLAs join JD(U) as election nears.  One of the rebel RJD MLAs is Chandrika Rai who is the estranged father-in-law of current RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav (son of Lalu Yadav).     Tej Pratap Yadav got married to the daughter of key RJD kingpin Chandrika Rai in an arranged marriage in 2018.  Within a few months he was demanding a divorce, something his jailed father Lalu Yadav forbade.  Out of anger Tej Pratap Yadav acted against his father-in-law and pretty much drove him out of the party and now into JD(U).
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jaichind
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« Reply #158 on: August 23, 2020, 06:31:07 AM »

If you go by these articles

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-may-soon-begin-seat-sharing-talks-with-allies-in-bihar/story-cVoaIA01R5fjSLTFV3dtIO.html

http://www.asianage.com/india/politics/230820/bjp-jdu-ljp-trurn-allies-for-bihar-assembly-elections.html

It seems that despite everything NDA will be JD(U)-BJP-LJP-HAM.  The seat sharing formula will be JD(U)-BJP share seats 50/50 with HAM getting some seats (7??) from the JD(U) quota and BJP giving LJP some seats (LJP is asking for 42) out of its quota.

I will be very impressed if the NDA pull this off.  I find it hard to believe HAM will accept 7 seat as they will want at least 20.  I also find it hard to believe that the BJP will accept a 50/50 formula but where BJP has to allocate seats out of its quota to LJP as it is clear that LJP will want and get a lot more seats than HAM.  Such a formula could trigger a revolt in the BJP.

I am also convinced that Nitish Kumar got HAM to come over to NDA for the explicit purpose of driving out LJP by making HAM the NDA face for Dalits.

It is not 100% clear to me that election will even take place in October.  There are rumors that the RJD-INC alliance might break apart as the Upper Caste faction within INC are pushing for INC to run separately from RJD to recapture the old INC Upper Caste vote from the BJP.  If this were to take place I can see the BJP

a) Breaking its alliance with JD(U) to make it a 4 way BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-VIP vs JD(U)-HAM vs INC battle.  In such as case I can even see RLSP going over to BJP.
b) Use the COVID-19 crisis to push out the election beyond Nov 2020 so the election will be held with Bihar under Presidential Rule which in essence mean the local Bihar state machinery will pass from JD(U) to the Federal government (aka BJP.)  With the local authorities under the BJP control the BJP can then win the 4 way battle.

In fact I think the reason why LJP has not broken with NDA and gone over to UPA is that it is waiting and watching to see if this 4 way battle scenario comes to pass.

The best way to figure out what will happen is to wait for ECI to declare an election date.  If the date is before Nov 2020 then the JD(U)-BJP alliance will remain intact and the main unknown is if LJP will stick with NDA or go over to the UPA.

A 4 way battle will be fun.  If I had to guess the BJP-LJP should emerge as the largest bloc but not clear if they will form a majority.  I recon it would be something like

BJP-LJP             35%
RJD-RLSP-VIP    30%
JD(U)-HAM        20%
INC                   10%

with the BJP victory margin even larger if RLSP goes over toe BJP-LJP.  What is holding back a JD(U)-BJP alliance despite having a larger core voting bloc and a very popular Modi is the anti-incumbency built up against Nitish Kumar after 15 years of being CM (with a brief interlude when now HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi being a proxy CM for Nitish Kumar).  BJP running without JD(U) is actually better for the BJP this election cycle.  Main risk is that a BJP-JD(U) split will let in RJD-INC.  But if RJD and INC would split up that would be the signal for the BJP to strike.  The main conflict within BJP is really between pro- and anti- Nitish Kumar factions so we will not know the result until ECI comes out with their decision on exact election date.
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: August 23, 2020, 09:20:29 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/over-20-top-congress-leaders-write-to-sonia-gandhi-over-leadership-crisis-2283866

Sonia Gandhi resigns as interim INC President.  Most likely the result of internal INC tussle between pro-Sonia Old Guards versus pro-Rahul Young Turks.  Now there will be pressure for Sonia Gandhi to rescind her resignation and pressure for Rahul Gandhi to resume his role as INC President.   

For me it does not matter who the leader is but it is about how the party is run.  I think the way forward for INC is for it and the Gandhi family to accept that the Gandhi family does not pull in votes and push for decentralization.  INC should be run like a franchise where for various local ambitious Center to Center-Left politicians INC can act as a platform and ready made name recognition to glue their vote base or cause to.    While this does not win any LS elections it at least allows INC to survive on the local level.  Eventually the BJP, after 5 10 or 15 years, will implode and at least the INC will be the largest alternative to sweep back in.  To do that they will need a leader that is charismatic and cut throat which is clearly not Rahul Gandhi.  But in the meantime the Gandhi's can work to ensure the survival of INC over the coming few election cycles.
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: August 24, 2020, 04:09:05 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/after-7-hour-cwc-meet-congress-promises-change-in-6-months-still-keeps-sonia-gandhi-as-interim-chief-1714687-2020-08-25

"After 7-hour CWC meet, Congress promises change in 6 months, still keeps Sonia Gandhi as interim chief"

So it is kicking can down the road it is. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #161 on: August 31, 2020, 07:32:18 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pranab-mukherjee-ex-president-and-congress-veteran-dies-in-delhi-hospital/story-sKOIeIEmCyY9OcGziScT9I.html

Pranab Mukherjee, ex-president and Congress veteran, dies in Delhi hospital

He was Prez of India 2012-2017 and was the leader of WB INC for years. He actually created an INC splinter RSC in 1986 after a blowup with Rajiv Gandhi, did badly in the 1987 WB assembly election,  merged it back into INC in 1989 right before the 1989 LS elections after reconciling with Rajiv Gandhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #162 on: August 31, 2020, 07:42:20 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-gdp-data-1st-quarter-live-updates-coronavirus-lockdown-6577361/

India Q2 GDP fell 23.9% !!! YoY which has to be the worst Q2 GDP result of any significant economy in the world.  There is reason to believe it is worse than this since GDP figures tend to capture more of the formal sector and we know that the ill advised draconian lockdown of March-April clearly hit the informal sector based on migrant laborers more.

Still Modi is riding high which teach us something about leadership.  Machiavelli pointed out that a leader must be seen as making decisive decisions.  Modi's draconian lockdown in March-April might have been an economic disaster but it was a political boon for Modi as it projected Modi as a decisive leader. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #163 on: September 02, 2020, 05:56:59 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/manjhi-to-join-hands-with-nitish-tomorrow-may-get-nine-seats/articleshow/77877850.cms

As expected, HAM joins NDA although it is more like HAM joins alliance with JD(U).  The alliance pattern in NDA seems now to be an alliance based on commutative property.  Namely HAM has an alliance with JD(U) which has an alliance with BJP which has an alliance with LJP.  JD(U)-HAM and LJP most likely do not view each other as allies and at most non-enemies with a common ally of BJP.  This is a very unstable alliance and could crack anytime

It seems HAM will get at least 9 seats out of the JD(U) quota with JD(U) and BJP each getting half the seats and BJP sharing with LJP out of its quota.  I find this hard to believe as this means BJP will contest a lot less seats than JD(U) since LJP will demand 41 seats at least and I cannot see how they go below 30 while HAM most likely can get 10 at most from JD(U).  Such a situation could lead to a revolt in the BJP.  The only alternative is for BJP to squeeze the LJP seat count toward 10 which will only mean LJP leaving NDA.  If BJP can accept JD(U)-BJP splitting seats 50/50 and them accommodate LJP without LJP bolting and avoid a BJP rebellion then the BJP deserves to win this election. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #164 on: September 04, 2020, 05:27:47 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/bihar-election/bihar-assembly-elections-65-by-polls-due-in-other-states-to-be-held-simultaneously-eci/story-qsNXKCBdhtJBtBKA8buDdO.html

ECI has indicated that 65 outstanding by-elections and Bihar assembly elections will be held at the same time without indicating when that will be.  Given the Bihar assembly elections has to held by Nov it is most likely it will be Oct.

The 65 by-elections included

10 in Gujarat - mostly INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP in order to give BJP a 3-1 win in the most recent RS election versus 2-2
27 in MP - almost all INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP and bring down the INC government
13 in Manipur - mostly INC MLs but a few BJP MLAs that resigned as part of a BJP civil war and BJP-INC war over control of the current BJP government
8 in UP - mostly BJP MLA that have died, elected as MP or disqualified

rest scattered across various states.

So the MP mini assembly election will be held at the same time as Bihar assembly election 
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jaichind
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« Reply #165 on: September 06, 2020, 03:34:32 PM »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/chirag-paswan-slams-nitish-kumar-ahead-of-ljp-meet-to-decide-ties-with-jdu-in-bihar-polls/articleshow/77964600.cms

"Chirag Paswan slams Nitish Kumar ahead of LJP meet to decide ties with JD(U) in Bihar polls"

Looks like LJP will be making a call soon if they are going to stay in NDA.  The escalation of hostilities between JD(U) and LJP made a huge jump once HAM entered into NDA and it was intimidate in terms of war of wards.  After HAM entered NDA, LJP threatened to run candidates against JD(U) while HAM threatened to run candidates against LJP which makes a mockery of this alliance.  Unless BJP can come up with a bunch of concessions to LJP more likely than not LJP will exit NDA if for nothing else than for image and face reasons.
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jaichind
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« Reply #166 on: September 06, 2020, 03:45:16 PM »

So 27 out of the 230 MP assembly seat will also see by-elections which makes it a mini-assembly election for MP.  25 out of the 27 are INC rebels of the Jyotiraditya Scindia faction that went over to the BJP bring down the MP INC government.  The BJP will be running almost all the INC rebels as the BJP candidate.  In 2018 the results in these 27 seats were

                       Contest       Won        Vote share
BJP                     27              1             36.28%
BJP rebels            4               0               2.39%
INC                    27             26             47.32%
BSP                    25               0              8.06%

The BSP has significant in about half of these seats and in a first in decades the BSP will contest these by-elections which is clearly bad news for INC.

My rough guess for result will be something like
         
             Win       Vote share
BJP        19              49%
INC         8               43%

mostly because a good part of the 2018 INC vote would migrate over to the BJP since the local INC MLAs have gone over to the BJP.  It will not be a wipeout because the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown will play a role to weaken BJP support.
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jaichind
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« Reply #167 on: September 08, 2020, 05:21:22 PM »

At the LJP meeting it seems LJP has decided to contest up to 143 out of the 243 seats in Bihar without making a clear break with JD(U).   It seems behind the scenes party patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan is still working to try to keep LJP within the NDA while those around LJP leader Chirag Paswan are for making a break.  JD(U) reiterated that JD(U) did not have an alliance with LJP in 2005 2010 and 2015 assembly elections and that if LJP is stay in the NDA it will have to accept the leadership of JD(U) and accept Nitish Kumar as the NDA CM candidate. 

The BJP is also working behind the scenes to try to keep LJP within the alliance.  RJD is already making signals that LJP would be welcomed to join UPA.  It is also possible that if LJP does not get a deal that it likes it could instead join up with BJP rebel Yashwant Sinha's UDA alliance or form an alliance with RJD splinter JAP in some sort of third front arrangement. 

The core issue here is this election will most likely be Nitish Kumar's last and as soon as he leaves the political scene the JD(U) will most likely fall apart.  Parties like BJP RJD and LJP area all trying to maneuver to pick up the biggest share of the JD(U) once it does fall apart sometime around or right before 2025.  LJP has to make a call on if staying with the BJP with a share of power but without grassroots organization gives it a chance to eat into the JD(U) in 2025 or will growing its grassroots even without power will put it in the best position to eat into the JD(U) in 2025.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #168 on: September 14, 2020, 09:23:50 AM »

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/monsoon-session-parliament-gets-down-to-business-under-new-normal-120091401304_1.html

At least 27 MPs have COVID-19.  This is out of 543+254 = 797 MP
That would be an infection rate of around 3.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #169 on: September 17, 2020, 05:43:54 AM »

https://zeenews.india.com/india/big-twist-in-bihar-assembly-election-lalu-yadavs-estranged-daughter-in-law-aishwarya-rai-may-contest-against-husband-tej-pratap-yadav-2308538.html

Big twist in Bihar Assembly election: Lalu Yadav's estranged daughter-in-law Aishwarya Rai may contest against husband Tej Pratap Yadav

It seems RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav's estranged wife Aishwarya Rai might run against her husband as the JD(U) candidate. 

Tej Pratap Yadav married Aishwarya Rai who is the daughter of key RJD leader Chandrika Rai with great fanfare in 2015


(2015 wedding with Lalu Yadav (temporary let out of jail), JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, and LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan with the couple)

Within 6 months the couple's relationship blew up with Tej Pratap Yadav demanding a divorce and his father Lalu Yadav refusing to allow it.   In 2019 LS election Chandrika Rai nominated to run on the RJD ticket over the objection of Tej Pratap Yadav who actively worked to undermine his father-in-law's election campaign.  Chandrika Rai lost in the Modi wave.

In early 2020 Chandrika Rai finally defected to JD(U).  Now his daughter Aishwarya Rai might end up as the JD(U) candidate to run against her husband in this ongoing family drama.
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jaichind
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« Reply #170 on: September 18, 2020, 05:59:09 PM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-jdu-looks-to-contest-115-seats-wants-bjp-to-fight-128-accommodate-ljp-6600402/

It seems JD(U) is proposing the seats are split BJP 128 JD(U) 115 with BJP then allocating from its quota to LJP while JD(U) allocating from its quota to HAM.  HAM will get something like 7-9 seats and there is no way LJP will accept anything less than 40 so what the JD(U) is proposing is the BJP contesting some 20+ seats less than JD(U).  No way BJP accepts this without a mass revolt within BJP.  How the BJP will need to manage JD(U)'s need to contest more seats than BJP, LJP's demands and internal pressure to contest a lot of seats will be a test of Bihar BJP's balancing skills.   If they poll it off they deserve to win this upcoming assembly election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #171 on: September 25, 2020, 06:26:26 AM »

Bihar election schedule announced



Results will be Nov 10th
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jaichind
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« Reply #172 on: September 25, 2020, 01:21:56 PM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ready-to-be-in-grand-alliance-if-rashtriya-janata-dal-leadership-changes-rashtriya-lok-samata-partys-upendra-kushwaha-2300975

There are signs that RLSP is not happy with its seat allocation and Tejashwi Yadav being the CM candidate and could exit the UPA.  Similar noises are also coming from VIP.  Main problem is running separately would mean wipeout for these two parties and NDA will for sure not take them.  On possibility is if LJP exits NDA or if BJP breaks up with JD(U) then perhaps RLSP or VIP  could end up with NDA.  Until then these noises most likely are schemes of getting more seats in seat sharing talks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #173 on: September 25, 2020, 01:24:30 PM »

The Quint data on Bihar caste breakdown



RJD is based on Yadavs and JD(U) is based on  Kurmi.  BJP draws its strength from Upper Castes and the trader based Baniya.  INC also has some residual strength with Upper Castes.  LJP and HAM are Dalit based parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #174 on: September 27, 2020, 08:59:59 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sad-ends-alliance-with-bjp-over-farm-bills-6617248/

In Punjab one of NDA's most long time BJP ally SAD leads NDA over new farm reform laws.  In Haryana INLD splinter and BJP ally JJP it seems might be doing the same. 

These new farm reform legislation is actually a very good idea as it allows farmers to sell across state lines and not be bound to sell at specified markets controlled by the various farmer organizations.  In Punjab and Haryana SAD and JJP are very integrated into the local farmer organizations and this reform law strikes at their monopoly over farmer economic activity.  In reality these farmer organizations play a  necessary role like transporting the farm produce to the farmer markets just like futures traders play a necessary role of price stabilization.    Still now the reforms the BJP is pushing for is putting it into conflict with its allies in Northwest India.
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