2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

Second phase was a couple of days ago.  Turnout was also around 56% just like the first phase.  Overall this is good news for RJD.  I always figured for RJD-INC-Left to have chance turnout has to 55% or above.  Anything in the low 50s or high 40s like in 2005 and 2010 means a JD(U)-BJP landslide.

General trends are
a) Modi still very popular where he gets credit for all positive developments while JD(U) gets the blame for all bad developments
b) This means Continued distrust between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level and confused BJP voters on what to do to support Modi but show anger at Nitish Kumar
c) LJP not likely to win many seats but seems to be cutting into the BJP vote in places where it is running against JD(U)
d) Even though INC got 70 seats to run in, around 40 of them are in BJP strongholds so the cap for INC even in a very RJD-INC-Left finish is in the high 20s.  In many of these BJP strongholds the Upper Caste vote is sticking by BJP which means the INC candidates there have to rely on RJD cadres to rally the OBC and Yadav vote for INC.
e) RJD rallies very well attended. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be drawing large crowds and have some level of youth enthusiasm.  Most likely RJD-INC-Left will fall short but this election has Tejashwi Yadav vindicating himself after his disastrous 2019 LS election outing where he failed to manage allies well and had several RJD rebellions including his own brother Tej Pratap Yadav
f) GDSF ((RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)) and RJD splinter JAP seems to have very limited impact outside of a couple of RLSP strongholds and very deep Muslim areas where it is mostly UPA vs AIMIM.  The Muslim vote seems to be sticking with RJD-INC-Left and not going for AIMIM in marginal seats.
g) All signs are that this election now is neck-to-neck with only a very tiny JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM edge. Nitish Kumar is still the slight favored to continue as CM despite his unpopularity since he will hold the balance of power in case of a NDA victory.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/73-of-rjd-candidates-in-3rd-phase-polls-face-criminal-cases/articleshow/79048062.cms

Points out that in the third and final phase 50% of RJD candidates faces serious criminal cases (rape or murder) which means the RJD are running an unusually large number of local dons are its candidates.  The real number might be larger than this as the RJD candidate might be the wife of one of these dons in which case there is no case against the RJD candidate but in de facto terms the candidate is the don that is the husband of the RJD candidate.

[jaichind]

A bunch of RS elections took place in Nov in UP and Uttarakhand which were a BJP sweep as expected given the large BJP majorities in UP and Uttarakhand assemblies.  There is a RS by-election in Dec due to the death of a newly elected BJP RS MP in Karnataka due to COVID-19. Assuming that goes BJP as it should the End of 2020 RS breakdown should be

NDA       119
  BJP           94
  AIADMK    9
  JD(U)       5
  RPI(A)      1
  AGP         1
  BPF          1
  PMK         1
  TMC         1
  NPP          1   
  MNF         1
  NDA-IND  1
  NDA-NOM 3

Pro-NDA   16  (rivals of BJP at the local level but will support BJP at the national level)
 BJD           9
 YSRCP       6
  SDF         1

ex-NDA     7  (ex BJP allies that in theory can go back to NDA)
  SHS         3
  SAD         3
  NPF         1

UPA         58
 INC           38  
 DMK         7
 RJD           5
 NCP          4
 IUML         1
 MDMK       1
 JMM          1   
 UPA-IND    1

anti-NDA 43
 AITC       13
 SP            5
 TRS          7
 CPM         5
 BSP         3
 AAP         3
 TDP         1
 PDP         2
 KEC(M)    1
 JD(S)       1
 CPI          1
 LJD         1

Vacant      2 (both in Bihar)

NDA still does not have majority and will need support from pro-NDA and the once in a while ex-NDA MP support to pass laws

If I make assumptions on how assembly elections will go in the next few years and what that means for RS and assume the NDA and UPA alliances stay the same (which it will not).  My projected RS breakdown will be

                        NDA       pro-NDA      ex-NDA      UPA       anti-NDA     vacant
End of 2020       119           16              7             58             43              2
End of 2021       119           16              7             58             44              1
End of 2022       113           19              6             63             44              0
End of 2023       114           19              6             64             42              0  
End of 2024       107           22              7             69             40              0

This means unless NDA can rope in a few more parties NDA will not get a majority in RS in the rest of Modi's current term but has de facto majority with the support of pro-NDA parties.  Also even if NDA loses the 2024 LS elections the new UPA government will struggle to build back up a pro-UPA majority and will take at least 4-5 years beyond 2024 to achieve.  The BJP gains in the RS last few years has bobby trapped the federal government beyond 2024 to make it ungovernable for years to come for any future UPA government.  

[jaichind]

Nitish Kumar, on the campaign trail, indicated that

a) This is his last election
b) Came out against CAA and took a hit a BJP UP CM Adityanath who is also campaigning for BJP in Bihar

This seems to indicate that JD(U) did not do well in the first two phases given the anti-incumbency sentiments which is also visible in the BJP vote bloc so Nitish sought to counteract that by indicating he will retire sometime in the next term as CM.

The third phase will see JD(U) vs INC vs AIMIM in a bunch heavy Muslim districts and Nitish Kumar, it seems, needed to distance himself from BJP to have a chance in those seats.  Of course this only adds to the JD(U)-BJP divide at the grassroots and if the vote leakage is high between the two blocs then many races, mostly JD(U) ones, might flip to UPA.

[jaichind]

Voting in last phase in progress.  Turnout at 46% as of 3pm which would mean higher than 56% turnout.  All things equal this is good news for RJD and bad news for JD(U).

[jaichind]

Most media exit polls will be out in 10-15 min.  In the meantime unknown outfit PollDiary has it neck-to-neck between NDA and UPA with LJP cutting into NDA votes and AIMIM cutting into UPA Muslim votes

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll also has it neck-to-neck

NDA  104-128
UPA   108-131
LJP       1-3
Others  4-8

If other exit poll has something like this then UPA wins given that UPA has the momentum

[jaichind]

Times Now Cvoter exit poll



UPA     120          36.3%
NDA    116          37.7%
LJP         1            8.5%
Others    6          17.5%

It seems  Tejashwi Yadav is pulling off a massive update

[jaichind]

If these exit polls are right then BJP made a serious mistake in this assembly election.  They should have dropped JD(U) and ran with LJP-VIP and even RLSP.  BJP-LJP-VIP vs RJD-INC-Left vs JD(U)-HAM vs RLSP-AIMIM-BSP would have produced a BJP-LJP-VIP victory. 

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP Republic TV also has UPA edge



UPA    118-138    40%-43%
NDA     91-117    37%-39%
LJP        5-8          7%-9%
Others   3-6         11%-14%

Another disastrous exit poll for NDA

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll also has it neck-to-neck

NDA  104-128
UPA   108-131
LJP       1-3
Others  4-8

If other exit poll has something like this then UPA wins given that UPA has the momentum

ABP exit poll seat breakdown



RJD: 81-89
Cong: 21-29
Left: 06-13

BJP: 66-74
JDU: 38-46
VIP: 00-04
HAM: 00-04

LJP: 01-03

INC held its own in the BJP-INC seats while RJD crushed JD(U) in RJD-JD(U) seats with LJP cutting into the BJP vote

[jaichind]

MP mini-assembly election by-elections India Today-Axis exit poll: BJP 16-18 INC 10-12.  BJP holds on to power, barely, in MP.  INC actually held is own here.

[jaichind]

The rule of thumb is Indian exit polls are: if one party/bloc outperforms its pre-election polls in the exit polls then the exit polls most likely are underestimating said party/bloc, especially if said party/bloc are in the opposition.     These exit polls imply a comfortable majority for UPA

[jaichind]

Times Now Cvoter exit poll



UPA     120          36.3%
NDA    116          37.7%
LJP         1            8.5%
Others    6          17.5%

It seems  Tejashwi Yadav is pulling off a massive update

Times Now-Cvoter vote share breakdown by party

NDA: 37.7%
JD(U): 15.1%
BJP: 20.4%
HAM: 1%
VIP: 1.2%

UPA: 36.3%
RJD: 22.9%
INC: 9.4%
Left: 4%

Others: 17.5%
LJP: 8.5%

[jaichind]

India Today-My Axis exit poll are not out yet but initial numbers on best CM are bad for NDA and good for UPA

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya which has a history of a huge pro-BJP house effect has it at a landslide defeat for NDA

No seat count yet but vote share is disasterous for NDA

BJP – JDU+    34% ± 3%
RJD – Cong+  44% ± 3%
Others            22% ± 3%

[jaichind]

India Today-My Axis exit poll vote shares by age

Age    - NDA - MGB - LJP

18-25 -  34% - 47% - 8%
26-35 -  36% - 47% - 7%
36-50 -  42% - 41% - 7%
51-60 -  45% - 40% - 6%
60+    -  48% - 38% - 6%

Youth surge for RJD where as in 2019 they went heavy for BJP/Modi

[jaichind]

Times Now-CVoter exit poll vote by location

URBAN:

NDA- 43.8%
UPA- 32.6%
OTH- 23.5%

SEMI URBAN:

NDA- 32.7%
UPA- 34.3%
OTH- 33%

RURAL:

NDA- 36.3%
UPA- 40.5%
OTH- 23.2%

Urban-rural split as expected given BJP's strength in urban areas

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP  Democracy Times exit polls

UPA: 129-144
NDA: 94-109
LJP: 04-07
OTH: 03-08

[jaichind]

India Today - Axis My India exit poll

UPA   139-161   44%
NDA    69-91     39%
LJP       3-5         7%
GDSP    3-5        4%




Has large UPA victory

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya which has a history of a huge pro-BJP house effect has it at a landslide defeat for NDA

No seat count yet but vote share is disasterous for NDA

BJP – JDU+    34% ± 3%
RJD – Cong+  44% ± 3%
Others            22% ± 3%

Their seat projection has massive UPA landslide

BJP – JDU+   55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others  8 ± 4 Seats

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls



Dainik Bhaskar does have NDA ahead

[jaichind]

Times of India poll of polls

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya exit poll breakdown by caste.  UPA did better than expected with SC and EBC.  The RJD gamble to drop HAM and VIP and rope in CPM(ML) CPM CPI to capture SC and EBC looks like paid off. INC kept its base with Upper castes while RJD clawed back the Yadav vote leakage from 2019 LS elections.

                        NDA         UPA
Upper Caste.   60%          29%
Yadav.               22%         69%
Muslim.            12%          80%
SC.                     39%          34%
EBC.                   40%          33%
OBC.                   51%         30%

[jaichind]

It is also interesting to note that Tejashwi Yadav who is now favored to be the next CM is only 31 years old.  Just as the impressive is he would have won this spot on his own as Lalu Yadav is in jail.  In 2012 Akilesh Yadav was 38 when he was made CM if UP by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav but it was his father that won the election for SP and gave the role to his son so he would be free to persue a role in Federal politics.

Up until the summer Tejashwi Yadav was viewed by the public the media and even his own party as a joke.  Then this last two months Nitish Kumar imploded and Tejashwi Yadav caught fire with the youth.