2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/elections/bihar-elections-2020-owaisi-teams-with-bsp-field-kushwaha-as-cm-face.html

AIMIM joins RLSP-BSP front.  Minor JD(U) splinter SJDD is also party of this front as well as UP Rajbhar based BSP splinter SBSP.  It seems most of the significant non-UPA non-NDA parties are fusing into this Third Front.  All things equal this front will hit UPA more than NDA.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

I think Chirag Paswan is going to keep that tradition. He's positioned himself in such a way during this Assembly election that it appears he can join either side and come out a winner.

His plan is based on the fact that BJP has strong organization and the Upper Caste vote in Bihar but lack a charismatic face to capture the marginal, mostly women, swing voter.  Nitish Kumar played that role for the BJP by having a JD(U)-BJP alliance where BJP brought its origination and Nitish Kumar brought is image.  It is clear to see that Nitish Kumar's brand is on the decline and this election will be his last.  After Nitish Kumar is no longer CM, either by election or pushed by by the BJP, the JD(U) will implode. 

Chirag Paswan want to accelerate this process by hitting JD(U) and take in a some of the anti-JD(U) pro-BJP forces.  This way, after the election, win or lose, JD(U) will start to implode.  Chirag Paswan want to come in and beat out the BJP to capture the JD(U) with Chirag Paswan becoming the new Nitish Kumar for the BJP.  Chirag Paswan might even then merge LJP into BJP and become the head of the Bihar BJP.  This plan is based on Chirag Paswan's youth and fresh image, certainly relative to the backroom dealmakers of the Bihar BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/bihar-assembly-elections-fighting-enemy-within-nitish-kumar-may-now-like-congress-to-win-more-seats-900489.html

With distrust growing between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level given the large number of BJP rebels running on LJP ticket, it seems JD(U) is now working on their Plan B: namely hope INC gains a bunch of seats so a JD(U)-INC post election alliance could have teeth if the BJP has plans to push their own CM with LJP.

While this could hurt the BJP in BJP vs INC seats it seems that an opposite trend will counter it, namely RJD's concern about a JD(U)-INC post-election alliance.  So it is not clear that the RJD base will go all out in favor of INC in seats INC is contesting.

All this makes for a fun free for all during voting when there are signs that every ally could be backstabbing each other.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll has NDA ahead of UPA




                         Seats            Vote share
NDA                   160                 48.2%
  BJP                      85                 33.8%
  JD(U)                   70                 14.4%
  HAM-VIP                5

UPA                     76                 36.0%             
  RJD                     56                 24.3%
  INC                     15                 11.7%
  Left                      5             

LJP                       5                  6.7%
Others                  2                  9.1%

The vote shares are clearly incorrect.  With BJP and JD(U) contesting similar number of seats there is no way the BJP vote share is more than twice that of JD(U).  I guess I should read the vote shares are support for party.

Nitish Kumar not polling well.





With only 28% job approval for Nitish Kumar and 54.5% are angry and want a change of government. 

But best CM candidate still has Nitish Kumar ahead

Nitish Kumar (JD(U))     32.0
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)     17.6
Sushil Modi (BJP)           12.5
Lalu Yadav (RJD)             8.7
Chiraj Paswan                 8.0
Gijiraj Singh (BJP)           6.7
Tariq Anwar (INC)           1.5

Which adds up to

NDA             51.2
UPA             27.8
LJP                8.0

This is not surprising where even in elections where the ruling bloc ends up losing they still lead pre-election polls on best CM due to name recognition.

Usually pre-election polls overestimate the ruling bloc and given the visible anger toward Nitish Kumar's government and the LJP split I think NDA is headed to a fairly narrow victory with some chance of a UPA upset.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Don't know if we have an India megathread but news on the gay marriage fight in India: there are two court hearings scheduled today (October 14th) at the Delhi High Court.

Arundhati Katju will represent a lesbian couple who've been together for 8 years who intend to marry under the Special Marriage Act

Katju's partner, Menaka Guruswamy, will represent a gay Indian couple married in the US. But since same-sex marriage isn't legal in India, their marriage isn't recognized under the Foreign Marriage Act.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/bihar-elections-exit-poll-ban-applies-to-astrologers-tarot-readers-analysts-too-says-ec/articleshow/78686201.cms

"Bihar elections: Exit poll ban applies to astrologers, tarot readers, analysts too, says EC"

Just like 2019 LS election exit poll ban until all voters has voted also applies to astrologers, tarot readers and analysts.  So pretty much as soon as phase 1 voting begins no one can publicly give any concrete indication on how the wind is blowing.

 

[jaichind]

On thing to note about the UPA alliance is that for the first time in Indian elections history the Maoist CPI(ML) has joined an alliance with mainstream "bourgeoisie" parties. 

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/in-bihar-bjps-surveys-indicate-tough-fight-157205

"In Bihar, BJP’s surveys indicate tough fight"

Internal BJP surveys seems to indicate that

a) The NDA vs UPA race is quite close
b) Anti-Nitish Kumar sentiment is high and is hurting both BJP and JD(U)
c) LJP not doing that well so JD(U) will end up with some number of seats
d) JD(U)'s EBC base is suspicious of a de facto BJP-LJP alliance

So the BJP has reasons to fear that JD(U) will hold the balance of power after the election and if BJP pushes its case to hard post-election for more power JD(U) might defect back to UPA and form a JD(U)-RJD-INC government just like in 2015-2017.

As a result the BJP is doing the most to disown the LJP and pledge that it will support a Nitish Kumar CM even if the BJP wins more seats than the JD(U).  The BJP judgments is that the anti-JD(U) vote will mostly going to UPA and the LJP will have limited impact.  If so the BJP has to prioritize making sure the JD(U) EBC base vote BJP and ensure after the election that JD(U) stays with the BJP form the government.   

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/nitish-kumars-jdu-fields-46-candidates-including-nine-women-with-criminal-cases/articleshow/78774041.cms

"Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fields 46 candidates - including nine women - with criminal cases"

46 out of 115 JD(U) candidates have criminal cases against them.  But at least JD(U) is for gender equity as 9 out of the 46 criminal candidates are women

 

[jaichind]

India Today CSDS poll on Bihar




               Seats      Vote share
NDA         138             38%    (JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM)
UPA           93              32%   (RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI)
LJP             4                 6%
GDSF          0                 7%  (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)
Others        8               17%

Race is now a lot closer



Best CM candidate

Nitish Kumar(JD(U))        31%
Tejashwi Yadav(RJD)        27%
Chirag Paswan(LJP)           5%
Sushil Modi(BJP)               4%
Lalu Yadav                        3%

This is a fairly poor number for a sitting CM.  It is clear Nitish Kumar is dragging down the NDA.  BJP has no choice since LJP support is not that great and backing LJP behind the scenes most likely split the anti-RJD vote and hand more seats to UPA.



Only 31% are for giving Nitish Kumar another chance with a large bloc undecided.

This sort of polling result point to a very narrow re-election for NDA if not outright defeat given polls at this stage should overestimate the incumbent bloc.

[jaichind]

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll also getting worse for NDA



Vote share w/o seats projection has NDA-UPA gap getting pretty small

NDA       34.4
UPA        31.8
LJP          5.2
Other       4.5



46.79% says that things are getting worse



61.1% !!! are angry and want to change government
25.2% are angry but do not want to change government
13.7% are satisfied

These are very bad re-elect numbers.  BJP has tied themselves to a corpse in the form of Nitish Kumar

[jaichind]

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll with seat projection has UPA closing the gap

NDA       147 (-13)
UPA         89 (+13)

change relative to their early Oct poll

[jaichind]

More detailed version of Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar




Which gives us

                        Seats                  Vote share
NDA                   147 (-13)                43.0%  
 BJP                     77  (-8)                 21.6% (-12.2%)
 JD(U)                  63  (-7)                 18.3% (+3.9%)
 Allies                    7  (+2)                   3.1%

UPA                    87(+11)                34.4%
 RJD                   60 (+4)                 24.1% (-0.2%)
 INC                   16 (+1)                  6.0%  (-5.7%)
 Left                   11 (+6)                  4.3%

LJP                       3 (-2)                 3.8% (-2.9%)
Other                    6 (+4)               18.6%

With change from early Oct poll.  It seems they fixed the bad ratio between BJP and JD(U) vote shares given they are contesting similar number of seats.  Also there seems to be a lot more undecides  from the early Oct poll which is usually good for the opposition front, in this case UPA.

Overall if the vote share gap between NDA and UPA is 8.6% than the seat share gap should be bigger than this.  I suspect the seats share are closer to the mark than vote share.



Many projected seats are very close 31 NDA seats and 20 UPA seats are still neck-to-neck (within 3%)

[jaichind]

If the most recent Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar is accurate then from a party seats point of view it is fairly close to status quo (2015 results) in terms of who holds the balance of power.

           2015           2020
BJP         53              77
JD(U)      71              63
RJD        80               60
INC         27              16

JD(U) will still hold the balance of power.  If JD(U) stays with BJP then JD(U)-BJP will form the government.  If JD(U) does not like the deal it gets from BJP it can defect back to RJD-INC and form a majority with JD(U)-RJD-INC. 

[jaichind]

Phase 1 voting done a couple of days ago.  Turnout was 54% which is actually a bit higher than in 2015.  This tends to help RJD as RJD does better in higher turnout elections vs JD(U).

All signs are that NDA still has the larger voting bloc and the Modi factor but developments on the ground are not going well for NDA.  It seems JD(U) and BJP have a high level of distrust and are really running two separate campaigns.  The BJP high command continues to put out signals that they totally back Nitish Kumar for CM but that is more about accepting the reality that LJP is not doing that well and pushing BJP votes to LJP will merely throw more seats toward RJD-INC.  The BJP seems to have accepted that once again, they gave been out-maneuvered by Nitish Kumar and that at best JD(U) will hold the balance of power between BJP and RJD-INC-Left.  So it is best, on the short run, the BJP continue their alliance with Nitish Kumar and them hope to take over the JD(U) vote  after Nitish Kumar exits the political scene over the next 5 years.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/mayawatis-open-support-to-bjp-spells-setback-for-grand-secular-democratic-front-in-bihar/articleshow/78957355.cms

In some good news for the RJD-INC-Left alliance, the GDSF alliance (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM) suffered a setback in terms of its credibility when BSP leader Mayawati  announced that her MLAs in UP should back BJP in MLC elections.   It seems in UP part of the BSP is in revolt against Mayawati and a bunch of MLAs seems to be threatening to bolt and join up with SP.  In response Mayawati announced that her loyal UP MLAs should back BJP in the upcoming UP MLC elections to stop SP.

This has the net effect of undercutting the GDSF effort to capture the anti-BJP vote from UPA.  Mayawati clearly is prioritizing UP over Bihar which makes sense given how weak BSP is in Bihar.  Still this move undercut AIMIM's effort to cut into the RJD-INC Muslim vote.

[jaichind]

Second phase was a couple of days ago.  Turnout was also around 56% just like the first phase.  Overall this is good news for RJD.  I always figured for RJD-INC-Left to have chance turnout has to 55% or above.  Anything in the low 50s or high 40s like in 2005 and 2010 means a JD(U)-BJP landslide.

General trends are
a) Modi still very popular where he gets credit for all positive developments while JD(U) gets the blame for all bad developments
b) This means Continued distrust between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level and confused BJP voters on what to do to support Modi but show anger at Nitish Kumar
c) LJP not likely to win many seats but seems to be cutting into the BJP vote in places where it is running against JD(U)
d) Even though INC got 70 seats to run in, around 40 of them are in BJP strongholds so the cap for INC even in a very RJD-INC-Left finish is in the high 20s.  In many of these BJP strongholds the Upper Caste vote is sticking by BJP which means the INC candidates there have to rely on RJD cadres to rally the OBC and Yadav vote for INC.
e) RJD rallies very well attended. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be drawing large crowds and have some level of youth enthusiasm.  Most likely RJD-INC-Left will fall short but this election has Tejashwi Yadav vindicating himself after his disastrous 2019 LS election outing where he failed to manage allies well and had several RJD rebellions including his own brother Tej Pratap Yadav
f) GDSF ((RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)) and RJD splinter JAP seems to have very limited impact outside of a couple of RLSP strongholds and very deep Muslim areas where it is mostly UPA vs AIMIM.  The Muslim vote seems to be sticking with RJD-INC-Left and not going for AIMIM in marginal seats.
g) All signs are that this election now is neck-to-neck with only a very tiny JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM edge. Nitish Kumar is still the slight favored to continue as CM despite his unpopularity since he will hold the balance of power in case of a NDA victory.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/73-of-rjd-candidates-in-3rd-phase-polls-face-criminal-cases/articleshow/79048062.cms

Points out that in the third and final phase 50% of RJD candidates faces serious criminal cases (rape or murder) which means the RJD are running an unusually large number of local dons are its candidates.  The real number might be larger than this as the RJD candidate might be the wife of one of these dons in which case there is no case against the RJD candidate but in de facto terms the candidate is the don that is the husband of the RJD candidate.

[jaichind]

A bunch of RS elections took place in Nov in UP and Uttarakhand which were a BJP sweep as expected given the large BJP majorities in UP and Uttarakhand assemblies.  There is a RS by-election in Dec due to the death of a newly elected BJP RS MP in Karnataka due to COVID-19. Assuming that goes BJP as it should the End of 2020 RS breakdown should be

NDA       119
  BJP           94
  AIADMK    9
  JD(U)       5
  RPI(A)      1
  AGP         1
  BPF          1
  PMK         1
  TMC         1
  NPP          1   
  MNF         1
  NDA-IND  1
  NDA-NOM 3

Pro-NDA   16  (rivals of BJP at the local level but will support BJP at the national level)
 BJD           9
 YSRCP       6
  SDF         1

ex-NDA     7  (ex BJP allies that in theory can go back to NDA)
  SHS         3
  SAD         3
  NPF         1

UPA         58
 INC           38  
 DMK         7
 RJD           5
 NCP          4
 IUML         1
 MDMK       1
 JMM          1   
 UPA-IND    1

anti-NDA 43
 AITC       13
 SP            5
 TRS          7
 CPM         5
 BSP         3
 AAP         3
 TDP         1
 PDP         2
 KEC(M)    1
 JD(S)       1
 CPI          1
 LJD         1

Vacant      2 (both in Bihar)

NDA still does not have majority and will need support from pro-NDA and the once in a while ex-NDA MP support to pass laws

If I make assumptions on how assembly elections will go in the next few years and what that means for RS and assume the NDA and UPA alliances stay the same (which it will not).  My projected RS breakdown will be

                        NDA       pro-NDA      ex-NDA      UPA       anti-NDA     vacant
End of 2020       119           16              7             58             43              2
End of 2021       119           16              7             58             44              1
End of 2022       113           19              6             63             44              0
End of 2023       114           19              6             64             42              0  
End of 2024       107           22              7             69             40              0

This means unless NDA can rope in a few more parties NDA will not get a majority in RS in the rest of Modi's current term but has de facto majority with the support of pro-NDA parties.  Also even if NDA loses the 2024 LS elections the new UPA government will struggle to build back up a pro-UPA majority and will take at least 4-5 years beyond 2024 to achieve.  The BJP gains in the RS last few years has bobby trapped the federal government beyond 2024 to make it ungovernable for years to come for any future UPA government.  

[jaichind]

Nitish Kumar, on the campaign trail, indicated that

a) This is his last election
b) Came out against CAA and took a hit a BJP UP CM Adityanath who is also campaigning for BJP in Bihar

This seems to indicate that JD(U) did not do well in the first two phases given the anti-incumbency sentiments which is also visible in the BJP vote bloc so Nitish sought to counteract that by indicating he will retire sometime in the next term as CM.

The third phase will see JD(U) vs INC vs AIMIM in a bunch heavy Muslim districts and Nitish Kumar, it seems, needed to distance himself from BJP to have a chance in those seats.  Of course this only adds to the JD(U)-BJP divide at the grassroots and if the vote leakage is high between the two blocs then many races, mostly JD(U) ones, might flip to UPA.

[jaichind]

Voting in last phase in progress.  Turnout at 46% as of 3pm which would mean higher than 56% turnout.  All things equal this is good news for RJD and bad news for JD(U).

[jaichind]

Most media exit polls will be out in 10-15 min.  In the meantime unknown outfit PollDiary has it neck-to-neck between NDA and UPA with LJP cutting into NDA votes and AIMIM cutting into UPA Muslim votes

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll also has it neck-to-neck

NDA  104-128
UPA   108-131
LJP       1-3
Others  4-8

If other exit poll has something like this then UPA wins given that UPA has the momentum

[jaichind]

Times Now Cvoter exit poll



UPA     120          36.3%
NDA    116          37.7%
LJP         1            8.5%
Others    6          17.5%

It seems  Tejashwi Yadav is pulling off a massive update

[jaichind]

If these exit polls are right then BJP made a serious mistake in this assembly election.  They should have dropped JD(U) and ran with LJP-VIP and even RLSP.  BJP-LJP-VIP vs RJD-INC-Left vs JD(U)-HAM vs RLSP-AIMIM-BSP would have produced a BJP-LJP-VIP victory.