Official Canada elections result thread
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exnaderite
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« Reply #50 on: January 23, 2006, 11:16:28 PM »

(wow, the greens actually won a seat.  I'm a little taken aback.  in terms of underestimation, I got that one most wrong, since 1 divided by zero is infinity.  so I was infinitely incorrect there.  Greens are about as bizarre as they come.  and that comes from a dues-paying, meeting-attending member of the Sierra Club.  So I do think I speak from some experience.)

Where do you see that the Greens won a seat?  I see an independent leading, but no Green has lead for quite a while.
That was in Prince George for around 20 minutes when only one poll was reporting.
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Gabu
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« Reply #51 on: January 23, 2006, 11:17:18 PM »

That was in Prince George for around 20 minutes when only one poll was reporting.

I wonder which poll that was. Cheesy
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ATFFL
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« Reply #52 on: January 23, 2006, 11:20:00 PM »

Plugging the current percentages from the Globe and Mail into the Hill and Knowlton predictor we get:

Lib: 87
Con: 134
BQ: 54
NDP: 33
IND: 1
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Gabu
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« Reply #53 on: January 23, 2006, 11:20:49 PM »

yeah, IND-1.  so that's not green?  all the better.  again congrats.

"IND" is "independent".  "GRN" is Green.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #54 on: January 23, 2006, 11:22:44 PM »

Plugging the current percentages from the Globe and Mail into the Hill and Knowlton predictor we get:

Lib: 87
Con: 134
BQ: 54
NDP: 33
IND: 1

That would be very close to Vorlon's Prediction of:

Tories      128
Liberals   85
BQ           57
NDP         38
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ag
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« Reply #55 on: January 23, 2006, 11:23:06 PM »

So, looking at the latest from the globe and mail and with only one seat yet to report anything the preliminary result seems to be (won or leading - so, give or take a few)

Conservatives 123
Liberals 102
Bloc 50
NDP 31
Independent 1

An extremely weak Conservative minority government (over 10 seats less than Liberals had until now), which is likely to survive as long as it doesn't do (or fail to do) anything significant in which it is different from the grits, since grits remain the median voter: on anything in which they differ from the conservatives (or anybody else) they would have a majority (except, of course, on forming the government). Frankly, if I were Harper I'd try to get a grand coalition - or provoke a new election soon. If there isn't an election by 2007, I'd be surprised. Conservatives might well win that one outright, though, if they make the fears about them dissipate.
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angus
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« Reply #56 on: January 23, 2006, 11:28:56 PM »

I'm getting 124/102/50/31/1 now. 

ah, there it is, a little sidebar.  on the side.   Oddly, in the sidebar they say GRN and color it green.  Seems odd.  Well, anyway, we seem to have underestimated the vote getting ability of the two major parties and overestimated the next two.  that just me?  well, okay, anyway, the fact that CPC+NDP equals less than 155 is a good thing for you.

some other stats:  toronto metro - no representation of the governing party.  not good for toronto.  (just ask new yorkers how bad this sucks)
prarie areas - cpc actually doing better than last time.  (?!)


ah, , now we have to listen to some lame bleach-blonde with a canadian accent make a bimbo acceptance speech.  I'd let her do me, though.  she's sort of politico-hot, know what I mean.  dog around really hot chicks, but compared to most of the women in politics, she's quite fetching.  Long german last name.  I'm looking in a mirror.  Looks like stornach.  ouch, her first line is "man, man.  we did it.  we did it.  we did it..."  ouch.  what a bimbo.  I'll post again when she's off the tube.
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ag
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« Reply #57 on: January 23, 2006, 11:32:33 PM »

One remarkable thing is that Conservatives seem to be actually losing seats in the British Columbia (on current results they will go down from 22 to 18, with grits dropping from 8 to 5 and NDP going from 5 to 12; there had been 1 independent). Their main gains are in Quebec and Ontario. Elsewhere, it is sparse (only 2 seats in Atlantic Canada, with the Libs still winning every province there). Of course, there wasn't much to gain in the Praries: they took both seats they hadn't controlled in Alberta (with the grits keeping their one seat in Saskatchewan).
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ag
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« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2006, 11:37:45 PM »

I'm getting 124/102/50/31/1 now. 

some other stats:  toronto metro - no representation of the governing party.  not good for toronto.  (just ask new yorkers how bad this sucks)
prarie areas - cpc actually doing better than last time.  (?!)

Actually, it won't be that bad on pork. Since the conservatives don't have anything like a majority and since they are on the right of Canadian political spectrum, there would be a natural majority against them on most policies. The tradeoff they'd face is to govern as Liberals, or to try to buy them (or the Bloc) off.
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angus
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« Reply #59 on: January 23, 2006, 11:49:46 PM »

okay, now we have a michael musto type character, but less gay, called John Baird.  Actually, he's fairly butch.  He's knows when to shut up.  Could teach US politicos a thing or two.

Okay, here we go...
analysis.

balding guy with canadian accent back on.  serious:

adjustment:  123/105/50/29/1

yes, I get it.  the 1 is not green.  I see the little sidebar.  thanks.

ooh, now there's a guy that watches US television on now.  dumbass little "soulpatch"  dude, buy a ffffing razor.  man, that whole soulpatch thing is so last decade.  last century.  hell, last millenium come to think of it.  anyway, they're talking about the gomary (sp?) scandal.  yeah, I remember that from the NYT.  (all the news that's fit to print)  yeah, major confusion.  good to know that kannucks aren't above that.  stupid shheet.  don't follow your southern neighbors down that slippery slope.  scandals and all that.

oooooh, very sexy jamaican black man now.  long and hard, you know it.

well, anyway, the sound bites are getting somewhat hard to follow.  short and sweet.  wow, youze guys have even shorten attention spans than we do, apparently.  that's embarassing.  anyway, congrats on the gridlock.

ag, somebody always gets the pork.  seriously, you're a wise guy.  you know that.  just look at BCS and its propensity to go with the PRD instead of the PRI.  makes the pan people happy enough to accomodate them.

actually, it seemslike a satisfactory result all around.  the cpc is happy for the gains, but the others are happy that the gains aren't as big as some people (not I!) predicted.  Not unlike some recent US elections.  The speaker of the house is retained.  Peter Milliken.  I like the way the balding guy with the canadian accent doesn't push too hard.  Not like Matthews on MSNBC.  In fact,very much the antithesis of Olbermann/Matthews, O'Reilly, Cooper, etc.  Refreshing.  CBC anchors would never get a job in New York.  (and that's not an insult to them, believe me.)

Whoa, a dorky asian woman with a dorky asian accent.  outside SF bay area, she'd not win in the USA.  Chow they spell her name.  I think that might be Zhou in the american transliteration system.  I had a physics prof named Zhou.  she's a NDP person.  Yeah, you'd expect that, stereotypically.  intrusive gov't when it comes to economics (compared to GOP anyway) but not nearly so intrusive when it comes to all that Nixonian BS.  "I will work to make child poverty history"  Yeah, sister, sure you will.  Nice line, anyway.  Hey, it won you a seat.  You go, girl.

Well, I got stuff to do.  g'night.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #60 on: January 23, 2006, 11:57:45 PM »

One remarkable thing is that Conservatives seem to be actually losing seats in the British Columbia (on current results they will go down from 22 to 18, with grits dropping from 8 to 5 and NDP going from 5 to 12; there had been 1 independent). Their main gains are in Quebec and Ontario. Elsewhere, it is sparse (only 2 seats in Atlantic Canada, with the Libs still winning every province there). Of course, there wasn't much to gain in the Praries: they took both seats they hadn't controlled in Alberta (with the grits keeping their one seat in Saskatchewan).

Gabu or Dean or someone else said that trends in British Columbia are often the exact opposite of the rest of Canada. Looks like they were right.

On another note, there's a Quebec MP named Pablo Rodriguez. I don't think the province has many Hispanics, whats up with that?
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Gabu
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« Reply #61 on: January 24, 2006, 12:07:21 AM »

6 Liberals elected in BC and 3 are leading, for a current total of 9.

The Liberals had 8 BC MPs from 2004.

God, I love my province.

Gabu or Dean or someone else said that trends in British Columbia are often the exact opposite of the rest of Canada. Looks like they were right.

That was me.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #62 on: January 24, 2006, 12:09:26 AM »

On another note, there's a Quebec MP named Pablo Rodriguez. I don't think the province has many Hispanics, whats up with that?

Other than he was born in Argentina, I don't know.
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Gabu
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« Reply #63 on: January 24, 2006, 12:15:55 AM »

In the last remaining race that I care to follow intently (Saanich-Gulf Islands and Victoria are both now called), Keith Martin is currently barely ahead of Randall Garrison:

Keith Martin   LIB   6867   34.53%    
Randall Garrison   NDP   6394   32.15%    
Troy DeSouza   CON   5401   27.16%    
Mike Robinson   GRN   1109   5.58%    
Douglas Christie   WBP   88   0.44%    
David Piney   CAP   28   0.14%    

I really hope Keith Martin wins; he's by far my favorite current MP.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #64 on: January 24, 2006, 12:18:02 AM »

Martin just announced that he is stepping down as Liberal leader.
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #65 on: January 24, 2006, 12:28:50 AM »

Lol, I'm glued to A Channel even when I have a geography project due tomorrow.
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Gabu
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« Reply #66 on: January 24, 2006, 12:29:15 AM »

In other news, the Marijuana Party came within razor-thin margins of picking up its first seat in Quebec.

Hochelaga

Réal Ménard   BQ   25300   55.3%    X
Vicky Harvey   LIB   7922   17.32%    
Audrey Castonguay   CON   5617   12.28%    
David-Roger Gagnon   NDP   4101   8.96%    
Rolf Bramann   GRN   2244   4.91%    
Blair T. Longley   MP   344   0.75%    
Christine Dandenault   ML   220   0.48%

GO DAD LOL
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Gabu
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« Reply #67 on: January 24, 2006, 12:43:38 AM »

For anyone curious, the two ridings in BC that the Liberals look like they might pick up are Newton-North Delta and West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country:

Newton-North Delta (180 of 194 polls reporting)

Sukh Dhaliwal   LIB   14064   33.99%    
Nancy Clegg   NDP   13338   32.24%    
Phil Eidsvik   CON   12663   30.6%    
Sunny Athwal   GRN   813   1.96%    
Rob Girn   IND   295   0.71%    
Harjit Daudharia   COM   105   0.25%    
Mike Saifie   IND   99   0.24%

2004 result:

Conservative    Gurmant Grewal    13,529    32.81%
Liberal    Sukh Dhaliwal    13,009    31.55%
New Democratic Party    Nancy Clegg    12,037    29.19%
Green    John Hague    2,535    6.19%
Communist    Nazir Rizvi    98    0.23%

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (195 of 237 polls reporting)

Blair Wilson   LIB   18205   37.77%    
John Weston   CON   17608   36.53%    
Judith Wilson   NDP   9225   19.14%    
Silvaine Zimmermann   GRN   3052   6.33%    
Anne Jamieson   ML   114   0.24%

2004 result:

Conservative    John Reynolds    21,372    35.29%
Liberal    Blair Wilson    19,685    32.51%
New Democratic Party    Nicholas Simons    13,156    21.72%
Green    Andrea Goldsmith    5,887    9.72%
Canadian Action    Marc Bombois    321    0.53%
Marxist-Leninist    Anne Jamieson    123    0.20%
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Richard
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« Reply #68 on: January 24, 2006, 12:58:59 AM »

No blackouts for me, whatsover (love hacked tv), and I've been watching since 7pm EST.  Now I'm going to bed with a warm feeling in my heart.

All hail, Prime Minister Steven Harper.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #69 on: January 24, 2006, 01:04:49 AM »

Martin just announced that he is stepping down as Liberal leader.

yay, good news!

Hopefully we can get a chretien now.
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Gabu
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« Reply #70 on: January 24, 2006, 01:54:33 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2006, 02:42:26 AM by Senator Gabu »

It's official: BC continues its reputation as being absolutely, positively, immune to prediction.

The Conservative Party gained 1.03% in the popular vote, but lost five seats.

Meanwhile, the NDP gained 1.88% in the popular vote, and gained five seats.

And, in the outcome of the night, the Liberal Party lost 0.93% in the popular vote, but achieved a net gain of one seat, leaving BC as one of the two provinces in the entire country in which the Liberals had a net gain of seats.

I repeat: I love my province. Smiley

The runner up is Saskatchewan, in which the Liberals lost 4.81% of the popular vote but somehow managed to gain a seat.
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Gabu
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« Reply #71 on: January 24, 2006, 02:10:55 AM »

Anyway, the final results are essentially in:

Party   Elected   Vote Share
CON   124   36.26%
LIB   103   30.21%
BQ   51   10.47%
NDP   29   17.48%
IND   1   .52%
OTH   0   5.05%

Election Prediction Project came surprisingly close in their prediction, despite Lewis' dismissal of the notion that the Liberals will achieve greater than 100 seats.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #72 on: January 24, 2006, 02:32:59 AM »

Yeah, I've already eaten my words. It was my first thought. And now I'll have a quick look around results round the country; I only have 90 minutes to spare.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #73 on: January 24, 2006, 02:41:25 AM »

WOOO! Paul Dewar won biyatches!
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #74 on: January 24, 2006, 03:36:20 AM »

Because I don't really care about BC Wink ...


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