2020 New York Redistricting

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Assuming Tenney wins and thus NY-22 can be removed from the map, and the Dems can draw a map that pleases them without looking too ridiculous upstate, here is one approach. The incumbent, Mr. Jones (Rockland County), who is very progressive, might not like it though. The map assumes the Dems lose two seats, down to 25, and as I moved lines around from my non partisan map, I was just making estimates. The lines would have to move a tad from NY-16 north excluding the three CD's in western NY that I did not play with.

It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko

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"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

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What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?

Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.

NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.

I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.

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What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?

Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.

NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.

I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.

I thought most of NY-23 would get combined with NY-27 to create a deep-red sink, while NY-22 would get a lot bluer by picking up Tompkins.

NY-24 would be what picks up Tompkins since it already has Syracuse.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1389781258650193923
Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.

Yeah this map is a dummymander, and a pretty dumb one. Splitting Buffalo is not needed, and you can make a Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat.

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https://twitter.com/davidnir/status/1404532125823610889?s=21

If Democrats can successfully make this argument, it really broadens their options by a significant amount. This would allow them to be able to ignore significant chunks of their caucus and still have the votes to pass a map, this would definitely increase the chances of 22-4.

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https://davesredistricting.org/join/504abbe1-01c2-45c4-8561-ff6f5d6d7fa4 D plan imported to DRA by using the csv file

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I'm very surprised I haven't seen a single Staten Island split in this thread so far.
What do you all think about this?



Image Link

I think that firstly, it's fair to give a Republican seat in Staten Island-Borough Park, and also on the flipside as a bone to Democrats, this can help contain Republican trends and population growth in the region. I also contend that it's aesthetically a good district.

The 2012-2016 Composite has the above district as 60.2% R - 39.8% D, but its quite likely that this raised to some 70% or 80% R by the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Maybe somebody who has spare time could run the numbers and find out?

Here's the link to the district (and the rest of the map as well, which I'm preparing a post for)

obvious Republican gerrymander is obvious

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1487900379245387779?cxt=HHwWhoC54d_giqYpAA...

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Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Democrats passing fair maps in states that they control while Republicans pass gerrymandered maps in those that they control leads to a Republican leaning map overall and a repeat of 2012-2016.

I endorse ProgressiveModerate's gerrymander. I really hope an influential New York Democrat somehow comes across this thread.

I was actually thinking about writing an email to NY-Dems. Does anyone know who would be the best State Senators/State Reps to write to for the matters of redistricting?

Maybe Andrea Stewart Cousins just by virtue of her being the floor leader and thus controlling what legislation gets to come to the floor.