2020 New York Redistricting

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

The overlay is not native to DRA, its NY towns/hamlets/CDPs. This can be found easily at the census tigerline "place" shapefile and imported accordingly.

Such boundaries are VERY important on Long Island (and the rest of the downstate suburbs) IMO, cause the city lines native to DRA are bulky, uninformative, and don't really show the diversity of suburban communities in the region. I've had it imported in DRA since like 2021 when for some reason it was changed from the towns to the present lines, leading to a mass of squares upstate and uninformative blobs downstate.

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

"The area of census.gov that you are trying to access is currently unavailable due to maintenance.

We are working to have this area back online as quickly as possible. For assistance, please contact our Call Center at 1-800-923-8282."

so this is why i couldn't find it by myself. lol looks like census shapefile databases are geoblocked lmfao

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You wouldn't happen to have a link for that shapefile import? The lack of NY towns/hamlets has been annoying while playing around with NY.

https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2020PL/LAYER/PLACE/2020/

New York is state FIP 36. You import it to DRA by custom layers -> Import New -> Choose the downloaded file in it's ZIP format.

Additionally, if you start the process by duplicating the present congressional plan under DRA's "official NY plans," you get the additionally beneficial NYC neighborhood custom layer pre-imported.

"The area of census.gov that you are trying to access is currently unavailable due to maintenance.

We are working to have this area back online as quickly as possible. For assistance, please contact our Call Center at 1-800-923-8282."

so this is why i couldn't find it by myself. lol looks like census shapefile databases are geoblocked lmfao

If anyone else has this issue, use this link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed639b7b-b184-4b10-89a7-8ae1e4e49ec5

There's a basic map with the CDP shapefile already imported. If you duplicate it, you'll get a editable copy with the file in the custom layers tab.

Thanks so much for that Oryx! It can be so annoying how US govt websites geoblock access.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&a...
Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

What a pathetic statement from someone who is killing fair maps.

Why should New York have to play by the rules when North Carolina and Texas can gerrymander to their heart’s desire?

The reverse is also true.

Why N.C. and Texas play by the rules when Nevada, NM, NJ, IL, OR, ect ect can gerrymander ?

The Democrats have gerrymandered so much, Republicans need the to win the P.V. by 2+ to have a majority, and that's without a NY gerrymander.

Democrats want to ban gerrymandering, but oppose unilateral disarmament.  Republicans oppose banning gerrymandering.  It’s not the same.

I think it’s equally accurate to say that the DNC wants to ban gerrymandering, meanwhile the local state parties who would actually be losing the power to draw the lines are rather more sceptical.
Whether congressional democrats support or oppose universal disarmament is ultimately irrelevant, the state legislative caucuses can and will do whatever they please as it is within their power alone.
And ultimately there isn’t a shared interest here. Banning gerrymandering would be extremely beneficial to the DCCC, but it would also destroy state legislative supermajorities. The most obvious example, MD Democrats would’ve been in deep trouble with 8 years of Larry Hogan if it weren’t for their gerrymandered veto-proof majorities.