If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.
If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).
I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)
How exactly do you propose cutting up NY 27 without giving the most red territory in NY to either Buffalo or Rochester?
Actually, that district would probably be divided three ways. The Wyoming, Livingston and Ontario County portions would go in Tom Reed's District (currently New York 23), the Erie and Niagara County sections would go Brian Higgins's Buffalo based district, and the Monroe and Ontario County portions would go in Joseph Morellle's Rochester based district.
