2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1691109898568994816?t=Pqer4SZGKMAu44D7k...

High Court orders a normal (not expidited) schedule for briefing on whether to take and hear the lower appeal.

[Oryxslayer]

High Court will hear the Appeal November 15th.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is this case even about? Didn't the GOP already get what they wanted with the court-ordered map last cycle?

[Oryxslayer]

What is this case even about? Didn't the GOP already get what they wanted with the court-ordered map last cycle?

This case comes from the Dems and concerns whether the commission body followed proper procedure or not, and if not, all that followed is unjustified and should be redone. The GOP appeal is to try to get the High Court of Appeals to overturn the lower ruling in favor of the Dems, despite the body seemingly shifting in favor of Dem Partisans since 2022.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1704134078109286749?t=XlFN10ppYwaYmP3V...

I think this de facto means the court reserves the authority to stop the commission or prevent its work from being implemented,  but it's confusing since it's a legal pause without actually pausing.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1708950582608707949?t=eJKw1RqJ389u89FZ-...

So they way how the "stay but not a stay" has been detailed was tha commission can begin work but not implement anything.  To that end, Democrats are beginning the necessary step of public input.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1712595688972828718?t=OslPhkTXdnkcMoMIO...

The situation becomes more confusing.  Unlike most state, NY seemingly has replacements that take a temporary seat in the event of this. And so everyone who was trying to probe the courts lean now has to do it with less information.

Renwick takes the seat, appointed by David Paterson. She's from the Bronx,  services the Bronx,  and is married to the former DA of the Bronx.

[henster]

If Dems get a favorable ruling the key is party unity in the legislature in getting 2/3's to reject four different maps so they can draw their own. I'm not too confident in that happening tbh, I could see the IRC submitting a map that moves most of the swing seats to the left a bit and Dems accepting it.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Dems get a favorable ruling the key is party unity in the legislature in getting 2/3's to reject four different maps so they can draw their own. I'm not too confident in that happening tbh, I could see the IRC submitting a map that moves most of the swing seats to the left a bit and Dems accepting it.

Democrats only need a majority to shoot down the maps.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1724428596817559989?t=fybigMgPRkwkc7tRx...

NY case tomorrow over whether the state should be remapped by the Dem Controlled commission.  

[wbrocks67]

Will it be decided tomorrow or will this be a multi day event?

[Oryxslayer]

Will it be decided tomorrow or will this be a multi day event?

You guys should really know by now that opinions take weeks if not months to produce.

[kwabbit]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

The Dem areas of NY-04 are a lot more densely packed than NY-03's. It's possible that they make NY-04 a Dem sink that goes into Queens while NY-03 is made a toss-up seat that D'Esposito runs in.

[Devils30]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

[kwabbit]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

The thing is, you can do the Nassau stuff this without bothering with Suffolk really, or getting too ugly. Just go back a few pages. Oyster Bay is very easy to pack.

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

[Atlas Force]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it.

Also the Dem incumbents in Brooklyn don't want these areas anyway since they might vote for progressive primary challengers.

[Oryxslayer]

And on the staten Island point from the last page:

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

In the event of a redrawing in NYC, if they're willing to have more erosity in return for grouping communities of interest together I'd suggest this.

Six districts modified (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12). 11th is anchored in Goldman's strongest areas in Manhattan and is Biden+17, so I'm sure Goldman would be happy with it; 7th regains Park Slope; the new 10th is plurality Asian.

Grouping SI with parts of Manhattan works too.  It can be done without looking erose.

I will laugh if we ever see something like the above. In a twisted way it makes a lot of sense, and couldn't have been passed with the 2020 incumbents, but is also very clearly a pretty partisan move.

NY-10 after 2020 took in the Hasidim of Brooklyn, that is now very unlikely. Back then there were two White incumbents in Upper Manhattan rather than one, and now Jeffries's CBC allies are bolder and empowered to desire the whole of Republican Brooklyn. NY-10 after the special remapping takes in Park Slope and other downtown Brooklyn Working Families strongholds. These areas did not vote for the primary winner Goldman, and represent a fertile base where future progressive challengers will emerge from.

Goldman wants to be protected from Progressives despite there being no more upscale Liberal areas easily available for him: White Staten is weirdly the best option. Nadler previously had to negotiate with Maloney for every neighborhood in Manhattan - now there is only one and the master gave Nadler incumbency over the Upper East Side. NY-11 currently takes in south Chinese Brooklyn - that is maintained for continuity. But the growing NYC Chinese community was uniquely mistreated during the congressional special master's remap, splitting it between four districts. Lets remedy that with an access district which will probably elect a Chinese-American, perhaps the same one who if not sidetracked in this manner will challenge Jeffries's African American ally in the mayors office.

Its also not a change so easily undone. Besides the fact that the Chinese population of Brooklyn is growing, all types of minority constituents raise loud voices and legal claims if their access seats are destroyed during remapping processes. Something like this would be effectively reducing NYC's White districts from 3 to 2, and Staten-Manhatten would remain the simplest option in future redistricting processes to pack Whites and not dilute a minority seat into a White one.

[Devils30]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

3-1 on LI is very possible, Dems have to pack NY-2 a little bit better.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway in terms of the case, the 3 opposed to Dem power last time seemed opposed again, and the block of 3 known to be in favor were favorable once more. Troutman is the swing, she's hard to read and seemed open to both, but the other justices seemed to be acting like she was in the Dem power camp. An opinion is anticipated before the December holidays.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

The thing is, you can do the Nassau stuff this without bothering with Suffolk really, or getting too ugly. Just go back a few pages. Oyster Bay is very easy to pack.

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

The one problem here is that the "Asian opportunity district" approach has the effect of drawing out Dan Goldman. (He lives in Tribeca.) I'm not sure how much institutional support he has, but the legislature will definitely be taking incumbents into account. After all, incumbents were the cause of much of the messiness in the original map. You might be able to solve the problem by extending NY-11 up to lower Manhattan, although Staten Island/Bay Ridge Democrats would be annoyed.

[Tintrlvr]

And on the staten Island point from the last page:

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

In the event of a redrawing in NYC, if they're willing to have more erosity in return for grouping communities of interest together I'd suggest this.

Six districts modified (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12). 11th is anchored in Goldman's strongest areas in Manhattan and is Biden+17, so I'm sure Goldman would be happy with it; 7th regains Park Slope; the new 10th is plurality Asian.

Grouping SI with parts of Manhattan works too.  It can be done without looking erose.

I will laugh if we ever see something like the above. In a twisted way it makes a lot of sense, and couldn't have been passed with the 2020 incumbents, but is also very clearly a pretty partisan move.

NY-10 after 2020 took in the Hasidim of Brooklyn, that is now very unlikely. Back then there were two White incumbents in Upper Manhattan rather than one, and now Jeffries's CBC allies are bolder and empowered to desire the whole of Republican Brooklyn. NY-10 after the special remapping takes in Park Slope and other downtown Brooklyn Working Families strongholds. These areas did not vote for the primary winner Goldman, and represent a fertile base where future progressive challengers will emerge from.

Goldman wants to be protected from Progressives despite there being no more upscale Liberal areas easily available for him: White Staten is weirdly the best option. Nadler previously had to negotiate with Maloney for every neighborhood in Manhattan - now there is only one and the master gave Nadler incumbency over the Upper East Side. NY-11 currently takes in south Chinese Brooklyn - that is maintained for continuity. But the growing NYC Chinese community was uniquely mistreated during the congressional special master's remap, splitting it between four districts. Lets remedy that with an access district which will probably elect a Chinese-American, perhaps the same one who if not sidetracked in this manner will challenge Jeffries's African American ally in the mayors office.

Its also not a change so easily undone. Besides the fact that the Chinese population of Brooklyn is growing, all types of minority constituents raise loud voices and legal claims if their access seats are destroyed during remapping processes. Something like this would be effectively reducing NYC's White districts from 3 to 2, and Staten-Manhatten would remain the simplest option in future redistricting processes to pack Whites and not dilute a minority seat into a White one.

I see you posted this one separately. It's worth noting that the Staten Island-Manhattan district existed throughout most of the 20th century - connecting Staten Island to Brooklyn instead was an innovation of the 1991 redistricting.

[patzer]

Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

It's tricky but here's my best attempt at an Illinois-style heavy gerrymander in Long Island.

1st is Biden+10, 2nd is Biden+18, 3rd is Biden+15, 4th is Biden+16, 6th is Biden+20. 8th is Biden+20 as well but can easily be made safer than that.

The tricky part is that if you're trying to build up the margins in the Long Island seats by reaching into Queens, it's easy to end up heavily slicing up the 5th. But here I managed to keep at least the core of the 5th intact- it is essentially merged with the core of the 2nd to make the new 2nd, and 31% black VAP in the new 2nd should be enough to let Gregory Meeks comfortably hold on to the seat in such a scenario.