2020 New York Redistricting

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Another who could try for a comeback would be David Squadron, though he might have been out of office for too long

[Tintrlvr]

Another who could try for a comeback would be David Squadron, though he might have been out of office for too long

As I recall Squadron left office very bitter about politics generally, so I doubt he'd come back in any form.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Another who could try for a comeback would be David Squadron, though he might have been out of office for too long

As I recall Squadron left office very bitter about politics generally, so I doubt he'd come back in any form.

Also didn’t want to quote the post to avoid spam but that write up is really good and comprehensive!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1527098981628710912?s=20&t=t0-txa...

GOP submitted "adjustments" map. Kinda repeats what I have said, and how drawing the Orthodox seat harms the minority seats, in this case the Central Brooklyn Hispanic seat.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1527098981628710912?s=20&t=t0-txa...
GOP submitted "adjustments" map. Kinda repeats what I have said, and how drawing the Orthodox seat harms the minority seats, in this case the Central Brooklyn Hispanic seat.

No, one can protect all of the existing minority seats, as well as an Orthodox Jewish seat with a max Asian percentage. We shall see.

[LabourJersey]

Has anyone been following the situation in NY-01 and NY-02?

As it looks, NY-01 is going to be the more Republican of the two which is a surprise. Would Andrew Garbarino run in NY-01?

[Smash255]

Has anyone been following the situation in NY-01 and NY-02?

As it looks, NY-01 is going to be the more Republican of the two which is a surprise. Would Andrew Garbarino run in NY-01?

Guess it is possible, but I doubt it.  He lives in Sayville, which granted isn't far from the border of the two, but it is in NY-02.   Neither the current NY-02 or his former Assembly district really cover any of NY-01

[Torie]

You heard it here first, I promise you. I was wondering how McAllister could rule on a map today, particularly given that Cervas needs to prepare a report, and there have been an avalanche of comments, every one of which Cervas reads and has said that he will consider. From all of that McAllister himself may request changes. I believe he has the final say, not Cervas. So when he considers relief to some intervenors as to calendar issues, he mentions that it is possible the map might not be adopted by his own May 20 deadline. And he mentions that prospect on - you guessed it, May 20. If I were a betting man, it ain't happening today. And the odds that there will be some map changes just went up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You heard it here first, I promise you. I was wondering how McAllister could rule on a map today, particularly given that Cervas needs to prepare a report, and there have been an avalanche of comments, every one of which Cervas reads and has said that he will consider. From all of that McAllister himself may request changes. I believe he has the final say, not Cervas. So when he considers relief to some intervenors as to calendar issues, he mentions that it is possible the map might not be adopted by his own May 20 deadline. And he mentions that prospect on - you guessed it, May 20. If I were a betting man, it ain't happening today. And the odds that there will be some map changes just went up.

I don’t trust them to be on time but I also doubt they’d be terribly late. Prolly Monday if not today.

Also I doubt the top line partisanship changes much; it’d look really bad for the court if suddenly they made a map with like 10 Trump seats. The districts will def be cleaned up though as the map was quite messy in some areas.

Biggest change when it comes to partisanship is if a swingy or R leaning Orthodox district in south Brooklyn is created (more likely Asian centric district), however, in that case NY-11 prolly becomes D leaning anyways

[Tekken_Guy]

You heard it here first, I promise you. I was wondering how McAllister could rule on a map today, particularly given that Cervas needs to prepare a report, and there have been an avalanche of comments, every one of which Cervas reads and has said that he will consider. From all of that McAllister himself may request changes. I believe he has the final say, not Cervas. So when he considers relief to some intervenors as to calendar issues, he mentions that it is possible the map might not be adopted by his own May 20 deadline. And he mentions that prospect on - you guessed it, May 20. If I were a betting man, it ain't happening today. And the odds that there will be some map changes just went up.

I don’t trust them to be on time but I also doubt they’d be terribly late. Prolly Monday if not today.

Also I doubt the top line partisanship changes much; it’d look really bad for the court if suddenly they made a map with like 10 Trump seats. The districts will def be cleaned up though as the map was quite messy in some areas.

Biggest change when it comes to partisanship is if a swingy or R leaning Orthodox district in south Brooklyn is created (more likely Asian centric district), however, in that case NY-11 prolly becomes D leaning anyways

The thing is by creating an Orthodox seat requires the elimination of one existing seat in the city, and that may lead to one less minority district because the white seats (NY-10 and NY-12) are too large to be cut. In the Republican map, relocating NY-10 led to a lot of Manhattan excess that couldn't fit into NY-12 and was stuffed into NY-07 instead, weakening its Hispanic percentages.

[kwabbit]

You heard it here first, I promise you. I was wondering how McAllister could rule on a map today, particularly given that Cervas needs to prepare a report, and there have been an avalanche of comments, every one of which Cervas reads and has said that he will consider. From all of that McAllister himself may request changes. I believe he has the final say, not Cervas. So when he considers relief to some intervenors as to calendar issues, he mentions that it is possible the map might not be adopted by his own May 20 deadline. And he mentions that prospect on - you guessed it, May 20. If I were a betting man, it ain't happening today. And the odds that there will be some map changes just went up.

I don’t trust them to be on time but I also doubt they’d be terribly late. Prolly Monday if not today.

Also I doubt the top line partisanship changes much; it’d look really bad for the court if suddenly they made a map with like 10 Trump seats. The districts will def be cleaned up though as the map was quite messy in some areas.

Biggest change when it comes to partisanship is if a swingy or R leaning Orthodox district in south Brooklyn is created (more likely Asian centric district), however, in that case NY-11 prolly becomes D leaning anyways

The thing is by creating an Orthodox seat requires the elimination of one existing seat in the city, and that may lead to one less minority district because the white seats (NY-10 and NY-12) are too large to be cut. In the Republican map, relocating NY-10 led to a lot of Manhattan excess that couldn't fit into NY-12 and was stuffed into NY-07 instead, weakening its Hispanic percentages.

You can send a South Brooklyn seat into the Rockaways to relieve some of the jam in NYC. Doing that allows the Black seats to move South a tad and creates  more of an opening for the Hispanic seat.

[cinyc]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1527722526197043201

[Torie]

And below is Mr. Dunn's last gasp to try to forge a south Brooklyn CD with his own two bare hands. He hopes that if a miracle does not happen, that the "Report" will explain why that quite compelling COI was constrained to get the short end of the stick for two redistricting cycles in a row. Dr. Cervas and the Judge know what Mr. Dunn wants. He has told them more than once. That said Mr. Dunn tells me that he  very much likes the SM.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/899a90fa-ef84-4ac8-b8a5-d28026836017

One can see that such a CD can be given birth while minorities not only prosper and thrive, but actually get close to the max. Praise the Lord.

[lfromnj]

Gib maps.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And below is Mr. Dunn's last gasp to try to forge a south Brooklyn CD with his own two bare hands. He hopes that if a miracle does not happen, that the "Report" will explain why that quite compelling COI was constrained to get the short end of the stick for two redistricting cycles in a row. Dr. Cervas and the Judge know what Mr. Dunn wants. He has told them more than once. That said Mr. Dunn tells me that he  very much likes the SM.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/899a90fa-ef84-4ac8-b8a5-d28026836017

One can see that such a CD can be given birth while minorities not only prosper and thrive, but actually get close to the max. Praise the Lord.

Ye this is prolly one of the better ways to do it, however, I'm hesistant to think the court will draw a trans-sound of Manhattan - SI district which are kinda needed to protect minority access

[Oryxslayer]

Gib maps.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a3a223ed-54cf-4b54-8ea3-6f9312d7c405



Unsuprisingly, very similar map. Main changes are in NY-11, Suffolk going N-S now, and the Albany region. Also if SPM doesn't run in his current seat now he's just a asshole.


Senate: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db25a7a8-477a-4443-bc68-9a157f9b2cc8

Most interesting things are a rightful Babylon Majority-minority seat, the max-asian seat in south Brooklyn, and Syracuse now is weirder. On the draft map, Biden won the 32nd most Dem seat by 20 points, and the 42nd by 9 points. On this map, he wins the 32nd by 23 points, and the 42nd by 10.5 points. So marginally better in terms of the Dem supermajority.

[GALeftist]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

[lfromnj]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

Guess he felt that national Democrats would support SPM in the NY 17 primary and he would get cooked against Bowmaan in NY 16.

[Torie]

Here is the final Cervas map, with a layer of his preliminary map, so one can see the changes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/364f6082-dd4b-4aa2-9b2d-7dc6e99adefa



Mr. Dunn was a fail on his primary mission, but did have one small impact as a technocrat.

Kudos to Mr. Prieve for discerning that the appropriate star to use for purposes of redistricting navigation is indeed declination.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

Guess he felt that national Democrats would support SPM in the NY 17 primary and he would get cooked against Bowmaan in NY 16.

I don’t think it’s a sure thing SPM would’ve gotten strong support from national Dems.  He’s likely pissed off lots of people to the point that I doubt he’ll be in a leadership post ever again after this cycle.  Even if he was gonna get national backing though, Jones would’ve likely wiped the floor with SPM in the primary.  My guess is that either Jones was either bought off with promises of support from SPM’s fundraising network or promises of a seat on some committee/subcommittee.  

As for primarying Bowman, Jones would have no path to victory and could end up splitting the progressive vote enough for that guy who is trying to primary Bowman from the right to win.  It’d be Jones vs. Bowman vs. a really well-funded (IIRC) Problem Starters Caucus-style #ModerateHero elected official from Westchester County.  So that was always a non-starter.  

Also, Sean Patrick Baloney needs to resign as DCCC chair and if he won’t, hopefully there is a way to force him out.  He’s shown he is woefully incapable of being a team player and you’ve gotta be one of you’re gonna take that job.  Plus, it’s just as important for moderates like SPM to be team players as it is for folks like AOC to do so.  And if folks like SPM refuse to do so, then they need to be held accountable.

Some other thoughts:

- I still think the courts were wrong to strike down the Dem maps and there’s certainly no reasonable justification for not allowing the legislature to redraw the maps*, but for the most part, this isn’t too unreasonable given the task the SM was given.  

- Long Island seems pretty reasonable and I like that the final map cleaned up Buffalo a bit

- Putting Saratoga Springs with Albany was a great idea for several reasons, so that was nice to see

- I really like the Syracuse to Oneida County district.  Honestly, upstate seems pretty good in general, although I have some minor quibbles with NY-19/NY-18 (I wish they could’ve found a way to put all of Kingston in NY-19.  I don’t love the way Ulster was carved up, although putting Tompkins County there was definitely the right call).  

- My biggest complaint about the map is NY-11.  I feel pretty strongly that southern Manhattan should go with Staten Island via ferry connectivity.  I can understand why one might disagree and I expected to be unhappy with what Staten Island got paired with, but this one is still pretty frustrating.

- On the other hand, my favorite thing about the map is definitely the absence of an Orthodox seat.  All due respect to Torie, but both from a fair maps standpoint and speaking as a Jewish-American, I am really glad to see the special master didn’t go that route.

- I am now even angrier than I was before at Delgado for ditching NY-19, this seat would definitely be winnable for him.  Hopefully Michelle Hinchey runs here, but I imagine she’d probably want to wait for a better environment.  Pat Ryan is running in NY-18 in the November GE.  

*Striking down the maps and allowing a redraw would’ve been one thing, but the ruling we got was just some Cuomo-appointed ConservaDems (one of whom IIRC was basically an outright DINO who Cuomo went all out to get on the court despite real opposition from a number of NY Democrats) trying to load the dice as much as they could for the Republicans by doing all they could to cut the Democratic legislature out of the process altogether.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

wut

[Torie]

Mr. X has twice now employed the phrase "with all due respect to" before pounding out my screen name, which reminds me of a story. I was once listening to this irascible judge, and he was ranting about how the habit of lawyers as a preface to referring to him employing the phrase "with all due respect Your Honor," utterly enraged him. You see, the possible implication was that the amount of respect he was "due" was the null set, and it was just a polite way of saying he deserved zero respect.

So, with that said, with all due respect to Mr. X, I basically don't agree with much if anything that he posted above. But inasmuch as most of it (except the assertions about what the law provides) are his subjective opinions (e.g., punish SPM and punish him some more, and he's a loser), and we all have them, including moi, life is still beautiful for me, and I don't mind. I did my best for South Brooklyn, but came up short, even though for a bit there I was quite hopeful that I had broken through to Dr. Cervas (he appreciated my map concepts). But when he chose to not cross Long Island sound with NY-03, for perfectly sound reasons actually (although alas not discussed in his report), I knew the jig was up. Perhaps it would have been different if the community down there had been more involved from day one, but it was not. It was unfortunate that he chopped Borough Park in half however in his final map iteration.

PS: Ferry connections may not suffice under NY law for purposes of contiguity, and I have never seen a NYS map that relied on that for connectivity. Links to Staten Island rely on the bridge, and to Brooklyn from Manhattan on bridges or tunnels.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It fits into the rest of the Northeast quite nicely.

Overall, I'm happy with the final product. It abides to all the criteria and is overall relatively clean and fair.

[Torie]

It fits into the rest of the Northeast quite nicely.

Overall, I'm happy with the final product. It abides to all the criteria and is overall relatively clean and fair.

I suspect your secret and proprietary algorithm for your color scheme has something to do with Planscrore.  

Well maybe not. Its black box has your white NY-01 marked as  the Dems having a 38% chance of winning, and your light blue NY-19 at a 54% Dem chance of winning (your very pale red NY-02 is at a 31% Dem chance), so to use a term that you like, that is asymmetrical. Oh well. Have fun with your color scheme.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It fits into the rest of the Northeast quite nicely.

Overall, I'm happy with the final product. It abides to all the criteria and is overall relatively clean and fair.

I suspect your secret and proprietary algorithm for your color scheme has something to do with Planscrore.  

Well maybe not. Its black box has your white NY-01 marked as  the Dems having a 38% chance of winning, and your light blue NY-19 at a 54% Dem chance of winning (your very pale red NY-02 is at a 31% Dem chance), so to use a term that you like, that is asymmetrical. Oh well. Have fun with your color scheme.

This is just 2020 Pres results lol