2020 New York Redistricting

[MillennialModerate]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

[cinyc]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

[lfromnj]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

He's saying they don't want to bother with the infighting that submitting an actual map could cause. For example screwing over Biaggi would not be popular with the significant progressive caucus.

[MillennialModerate]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

He's saying they don't want to bother with the infighting that submitting an actual map could cause. For example screwing over Biaggi would not be popular with the significant progressive caucus.

Who the F cares? You’re costing your party a 4-6 seat swing because you don’t want to hurt someone’s feelings? GTFO with that

[lfromnj]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

He's saying they don't want to bother with the infighting that submitting an actual map could cause. For example screwing over Biaggi would not be popular with the significant progressive caucus.

Who the F cares? You’re costing your party a 4-6 seat swing because you don’t want to hurt someone’s feelings? GTFO with that

I mean its like half a seat or something like that. In all likelihood the special master will draw their own map. I do think if Democrats got behind the relatively favorable GOP map for upstate the judge would force that, so I too am not sure.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

He's saying they don't want to bother with the infighting that submitting an actual map could cause. For example screwing over Biaggi would not be popular with the significant progressive caucus.

Who the F cares? You’re costing your party a 4-6 seat swing because you don’t want to hurt someone’s feelings? GTFO with that

I mean its like half a seat or something like that. In all likelihood the special master will draw their own map. I do think if Democrats got behind the relatively favorable GOP map for upstate the judge would force that, so I too am not sure.

One way in which Dems might've hurt themselves upstate is that they argued in court for maximal metro districts while not arguing for maximal rural districts. It's not like Rochester will be cracked or anything in any fair map, but especially when it comes to Albany that could really hurt them and consequently slightly unpack NY-21 even more.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

[lfromnj]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

[lfromnj]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

Well the reason its is to keep NY 11th with Park Slope. Overall its a futile effort and I see it next to impossible that there won't be 1 R seat in NYC. Democrats should still try to keep Nadlers district as its the only way to fully crack South Brooklyn and avoid that 2nd R seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

Well the reason its is to keep NY 11th with Park Slope. Overall its a futile effort and I see it next to impossible that there won't be 1 R seat in NYC. Democrats should still try to keep Nadlers district as its the only way to fully crack South Brooklyn and avoid that 2nd R seat.

This reminds me of Sarbanes and the MD map. I think another way would just be to cede a Jewish/Asian seat that forces NY-11 to either go up to Park Slope anyways or connect to Lower Manhattan which I still think is an underrated possibility.

[lfromnj]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

Well the reason its is to keep NY 11th with Park Slope. Overall its a futile effort and I see it next to impossible that there won't be 1 R seat in NYC. Democrats should still try to keep Nadlers district as its the only way to fully crack South Brooklyn and avoid that 2nd R seat.

This reminds me of Sarbanes and the MD map. I think another way would just be to cede a Jewish/Asian seat that forces NY-11 to either go up to Park Slope anyways or connect to Lower Manhattan which I still think is an underrated possibility.

The base of this lawsuit is from the NY GOP, and the judge still has the final say on the map.


There is simply no way this conservative corner of NYC with 1.4 million people will not get even 1 Red district(assuming Orthodox Bloc vote for the GOP which is a bad assumption.)

[Torie]

Did you know it is possible to draw a 30% Asian district in Southern Brooklyn?

33.3333% is the number that is whispering, whispering in my ear.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Btw I was able to submit both State Senate and Congressional maps to the court ultimately.

Congressional was basically a least change with a new NY-10 in south Brooklyn that was like 33% Asian and NY-22 cut. It was 21-5 in 2020 but lots of competitive seats especially upstate.

State Senate had 17 Trump seats iirc but again a lot of competitive seats. The supermajority would prolly be a tossup most elective while Dems should safely hold the majority

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

Well the reason its is to keep NY 11th with Park Slope. Overall its a futile effort and I see it next to impossible that there won't be 1 R seat in NYC. Democrats should still try to keep Nadlers district as its the only way to fully crack South Brooklyn and avoid that 2nd R seat.

This reminds me of Sarbanes and the MD map. I think another way would just be to cede a Jewish/Asian seat that forces NY-11 to either go up to Park Slope anyways or connect to Lower Manhattan which I still think is an underrated possibility.

The base of this lawsuit is from the NY GOP, and the judge still has the final say on the map.


There is simply no way this conservative corner of NYC with 1.4 million people will not get even 1 Red district.

It def will or at the very least a swing seat. The question is will there be 2 which seems a bit weird and purposeful to do

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apologies, forgot add the link

Overall good job! I think that config for NY-10 and 11 is quite nice as NY-10 keeps both the Jewish and Asian communities relatively whole. Brooklyn is also relatively clean and makes sense and you kept all 3 black seats.

I think those NY-12 and 13 have really nice clear COIs which is also a benfit.

I guess the main flaw with your map is a Hispanic in the Bronx is cut even though population doesn't warrant it and that NY-04 is obviously not very ideal and as a NYer it's convering communities that really don't have much in common beyond beyond inner suburbs. '

While it is nice to boost the Hispanic population in NY-07 ngl northern Queens Hispanics and Hispanics along the L train corridor don't have a ton in common which is why I prefer just keeping NY-07 to itself but it's not the most offensive sacrifice.

I feel like there's really no perfect config of NYC at the end of the day since there are basically too many communities to try and represent with too few districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting thing to think about is a fair map may only have 2 safe GOP seats (something in West and North NY). That being said there should be a good handful of GOP leaning seats after that.

[cinyc]

Btw I was able to submit both State Senate and Congressional maps to the court ultimately.

Congressional was basically a least change with a new NY-10 in south Brooklyn that was like 33% Asian and NY-22 cut. It was 21-5 in 2020 but lots of competitive seats especially upstate.

State Senate had 17 Trump seats iirc but again a lot of competitive seats. The supermajority would prolly be a tossup most elective while Dems should safely hold the majority

Is there a DRA or block assignment file or shapefile for this plan?

[Tintrlvr]

Here’s the Dem proposal:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1520511947325779968?s=21&t=6-2mL1Da9B4FRR4...

WHY ARE DEMS SO OBSESSED WITH NY-10

Why not ? South Brooklyn and Si is a whole lot of r leaning areas to crack andy ny 10 is there on the current map(pretty similar to the FL map having the collier Hialeah district.) Considering both were court approved why wouldn't you keep it ?

Cause as a NY-er the district really doesn't make sense, and it just seems like a bid to keep Nadler happy. And besides they made it worse than the old map config.

Well the reason its is to keep NY 11th with Park Slope. Overall its a futile effort and I see it next to impossible that there won't be 1 R seat in NYC. Democrats should still try to keep Nadlers district as its the only way to fully crack South Brooklyn and avoid that 2nd R seat.

This reminds me of Sarbanes and the MD map. I think another way would just be to cede a Jewish/Asian seat that forces NY-11 to either go up to Park Slope anyways or connect to Lower Manhattan which I still think is an underrated possibility.

You can draw a neat Dem district in Brooklyn ex. the black seats while still making NY-11 Dem (Biden+12 on this map). This NY-10 is even 32% Asian for a clear opportunity district while also keeping all of the ultra-Orthodox areas together (you'll see some heavily R areas left out, but those places are Russian, not ultra-Orthodox) and being Biden+11.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a9c470fb-a6b2-473e-9566-6d7a04ab0de6

The messiness is entirely to preserve Nadler's district (this configuration would mean only two Manhattan-based districts) and to satisfy Velazquez by putting most of Red Hook (where she lives, although her actual residence is in Nadler's district both currently and in the state Democrats' map) in her seat.

[Sol]

Here's a reconfigured map of NYC.





NY-01: 57% W-28% L-11% B, 51-48% Biden, 50-46% Trump 2016.
The most Democratic and least white LI district, excluding NY-04. Still very much a swing seat. Garbarino lives here but would probably have a difficult time in a more Democratic year.

NY-02: 67% W-17% L, 51-48% Trump 2020, 52-44% Trump 2016
The most Republican seat in Long Island, and is likely R. Kathleen Rice lives here but has basically no chance to win in 2022 imo, her career would likely be over unless she's able to transplant successfully to 4.

NY-03: 71% W-13% L-10% A, 49-49% Biden, 52-45% Trump 2016
A weird seat, this is probably the most upscale of the Long Island seats and votes like it--it was nearly as Republican as NY-02 but flipped to Biden in 2020. Probably still lean R, though I'm not sure what sort of home-ground advantage Suozzi has here.

NY-04: 54% W-20% L-18% A, 63-36% Biden, 61-35% Clinton
In some states one sometimes has to draw one heinous district to make the map work, and this is it for New York. My apologies--the plausible alternatives were A) making one or two of the Brooklyn Black districts plurality, B) giving Grace Meng most of North Hempstead, C) Drawing a North Hempstead district which slides over to Astoria. I figured this one was the best option.

Weirdly for a district based in Long Island Mondaire Jones is the incumbent and is probably favored. Safe D ofc.

NY-05: 52% B-21% L-20% W
The successor to Meeks' seat. To maintain Black influence in all of the New York seats you basically have to go into Long Island, and if you don't the area that is going to be diluted is actually the Brooklyn seats. Safe D.

NY-06: 50% A-22% W-19% L
Grace Meng's seat. Plurality Asian by the tiniest of margins (49.9) but you can bump it up if you're okay with getting ugly in Woodside. Safe D although a surprisingly weak 2020 margin.

NY-07: 50% L-23% W-20% A
This is an open Latino influence seat. It contains big chunks of AOC and Velazquez's districts but neither of them live here. However, since neither have a great place to run as an alternative, it may be that both would end up running here. Safe D obviously.

NY-08: 52% B-22% L-13% A
Hakeem Jeffries' seat. Has some of the less gentrified parts of Brooklyn but also some other ethnic enclaves, including the Guyanese community in SW Queens, Howard Beach, and Bergen Beach. Despite the latter two, it's extremely non-white. Safe D.

NY-09: 53% B-26% W-15% L
Clark's district. Has a lot more of your usual Brooklyn gentrifiers but is a bit more Black. It's interesting imo how resilient the Black community in the area of the Brooklyn Bridge is--is this a result of rent controlled or public housing? Safe D ofc.

NY-10: 49% W-32% A-14% L, 57-42% Trump 2020, 50-46% Trump 2016
The Republican South Brooklyn seat. Also includes almost all of Brooklyn Chinatown. Safe R on paper but the realities of local politics are a bit different and odd so it might end up electing an extremely right-wing Democrat.

NY-11: 55% W-22% L-13% A-11% B, 55-44% Biden, 55-42% Clinton
A bit of an odd marriage, as is always the case for Staten Island. Despite its relative closeness on paper it's probably something like "Titanium tilt D" given the rabid Democratic voting of Park Slope. Primaries are probably insane here. Velazquez technically lives here so she might actually run here lol.

NY-12: 52% W-19% L-19% A
Lower Manhattan+Outer Borough Gentrifiers. Pretty straightforward seat. Not sure where Maloney lives but she's represented a good part of this seat so this might be the place for her. On the other hand though, AOC could carpetbag here or it could elect a DSA-type who isn't her.

NY-13: 61% W-16% A-10% L
Midtown Manhattan. Potentially sets up a nasty Maloney vs. Nadler primary fight though I imagine Nadler has the upper hand as he's relatively popular and not tainted by scandal.

NY-14: 50% L-36% B-16% W
Espaillat's obvious seat. Not much to see here really.

NY-15: 57% L-37% B
I think AOC technically lives here but this is the obvious successor seat for Torres. It's interesting how much less Asian the Bronx is than Brooklyn or Queens. Not much to see here except the nasty swing to Trump in 2020 that still doesn't matter.

NY-16: 44% L-43% L-17% W
Jamaal Bowman's seat, except I made it Latino influence to make up for cutting AOC's district. He still should be favored here. Despite taking in Yonkers and the whitest parts of the Bronx, it's still only 17% white lol.

Will have more later.

[lfromnj]

Rice/Suozzi are retiring by the way. Suozzi might still jump back in though. Suozzi is also a pretty good candidate, he outperformed Biden by like 7 or 8 in a pretty upscale district(although it is LI still)


Its pretty good although I find it funny how you take 2 of the most contraversial districts from the Dem gerrymander which is the Staten Island Park Slope and the Biaggimander.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So I drew a map thinking of if I were drawing as a "nonpartisan" special master but am still a Democratic partisan (which it sounds is exactly what the guy drawing it is) and the results were...actually still pretty good for the Democrats:



The 20th is probably the biggest issue, but arguing that all of the western border with Vermont is a community of interest isn't really that insane based on geography and roads.

The Long Island seats aren't really that great for Democrats admittedly, but Suozzi could definitely hold the second at least (and no reason for him to not run again), the third was about Biden 50 - Trump 47 so it would definitely flip in a R+3 generic ballot but also would flip back the next D House victory.

I would argue the biggest issue is the lack of a metro Rochester seat even though metro Rochester is basically perfect size for a district. Very interesting results though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I plugged the Plantiff's remedial map into my model. While the net bias is R + 11 it becomes R + 0 once one accounts for NY's geography which overall isn't great for Dems. From the Dem gerry it's really only an average loss of 2 D seats and an R gain of 2 seats. However, competitiveness goes way up so in 2022, Dems loss will likely be bigger whereas in a great year they could have the ability to go 22-4 or even 23-3. The main consequence of this map for Dems is the median seat nationally would shift from Biden + 4ish to Biden + 2ish (though this assumes a weakened KS-03 for Dems and a NH-01 that is pretty close and everything else stays in place).

A big question is if Biden's strong performance upstate an anomaly or the future. If upstate sees a dramatic R shift in the coming years, especially in the central valley, that would be very bad news for Dems but in the reverse they could make NY-18 and NY-24, MAYBE even NY-19 relatively solid.

Also, the Northeast overall looks funny cause inland is hyper liberal even in rural areas and then you just have this line of urban/suburban R districts along the coast.

This map is unlikely to be the final map but is interesting to see what a fair map could look like.

This map would also add another Clinton-Trump seat meaning we could get a total of 5 under the new maps nationally.