2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

[lfromnj]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

What percebt of the black vote did Clarke win in 2018 anyway. Was it very strong or was it more like Lacy Clay vs Cori Bush ?

[Oryxslayer]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

What percebt of the black vote did Clarke win in 2018 anyway. Was it very strong or was it more like Lacy Clay vs Cori Bush ?

I don't have the maps on hand, but when I saw them in the past, in all the Progressive vs AA races in the past 4 years, the Progressive, regardless of race, dominates the expected neighborhoods in West Brooklyn and Queens vs the incumbent in the AA areas usually in the east of the seat.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

#1 is definitely a tough issue. To some extent, I like Phil's solution of splitting the banks of the Hudson, but on the other hand, it does feel awkward: putting Putnam County and Albany in the same district is a poor fit. I lean towards splitting Ulster and Sullivan: my impression is that the area is less integrated and certainly less dense than Dutchess. My optimal solution would probably look something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0bae0382-02f2-40b9-a32e-5debe7a22f67

#2 is easier for me. The Brooklyn progressives don't have enough population for their own seat and aren't compact. The ethnic whites do have enough, and are compact. Drawing a South Brooklyn seat makes all of the Brooklyn seats together and better keeps together communities of interest. I lean strongly towards the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

#1 is definitely a tough issue. To some extent, I like Phil's solution of splitting the banks of the Hudson, but on the other hand, it does feel awkward: putting Putnam County and Albany in the same district is a poor fit. I lean towards splitting Ulster and Sullivan: my impression is that the area is less integrated and certainly less dense than Dutchess. My optimal solution would probably look something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0bae0382-02f2-40b9-a32e-5debe7a22f67

#2 is easier for me. The Brooklyn progressives don't have enough population for their own seat and aren't compact. The ethnic whites do have enough, and are compact. Drawing a South Brooklyn seat makes all of the Brooklyn seats together and better keeps together communities of interest. I lean strongly towards the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans seat.

My reasoning for splitting the Hudson along its two banks is simple: there are only 4 bridges crossing the Hudson between Albany and Westchester counties, reducing the amount of connectivity that the two banks have to each other. That being said, while I prefer to draw the Hudson that way, I also concede there are benefits to doing it the traditional way, so I don't preclude an ideal map from doing the latter.

[Oryxslayer]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

[Oryxslayer]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

State Site has yet to be updated with the exact vote transcripts, but one NO D vote I can see on twitter was Marcela Mitaynes of Brooklyn. Senate is expected to vote between 3 and 4.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

State Site has yet to be updated with the exact vote transcripts, but one NO D vote I can see on twitter was Marcela Mitaynes of Brooklyn. Senate is expected to vote between 3 and 4.

Is it a matter of any importance the precise margin by which the map passes the State Senate? In terms of its likelihood of being overturned or whatnot.

[Oryxslayer]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

State Site has yet to be updated with the exact vote transcripts, but one NO D vote I can see on twitter was Marcela Mitaynes of Brooklyn. Senate is expected to vote between 3 and 4.

Is it a matter of any importance the precise margin by which the map passes the State Senate? In terms of its likelihood of being overturned or whatnot.

In this situation, where the commission collapsed and provided nothing to edit, the constitutional amendment is a mess. Nobody knows if a majority or 2/3s are needed, though 2/3s is obviously preferable cause then that can of worms can remain closed.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

I like it other than the Borough Park-other Jewish communities split. Ideally there would be a solely South Brooklyn seat. Like this.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::52efeb58-18a3-465c-9f74-b98643bd5a32

Looking at that sort of arrangement gives me the thought that I should redraw the 11th and 9th to put Bensonhurst in the 9th while placing Sunset Park in the 11th.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/73e32e04-cbcd-472c-942f-6023fab6e208
Something like this.

That makes sense, yeah.

I think your biggest problem is combining the UWS with Harlem, which leaves that seat plurality white. Not going to be acceptable. You have to pair white parts of Manhattan with Brooklyn to preserve that minority seat.

I doubt the courts would strike it down, honestly. Especially since the seat is still 60%+ non-White VAP and it can be pretty plausibly argued that Harlem and Brooklyn are disparate communities versus Harlem and the UWS.

It's not a court issue, it's a political issue. The north Manhattan seat has to sufficiently minority that it's not going to elect a white politician. You *might* be able to get away with the UWS, but certainly nothing south of that. (Incidentally, all of Manhattan north of 59th St on the west side and of 96th St on the east side is exactly one district, which is almost too neat to be true.)

On the whole, this map eliminates a minority seat in northern Manhattan in favor of creating a white seat in Brooklyn, which is just not viable.

[Brittain33]

This analysis was too amazing not to share.

https://twitter.com/rrhelections/status/1488946970223906816?s=21

[Oryxslayer]

The best part of that dumpster fire take was that cinyc did this breakdown after Thorongil made one of the 2017 mayoral map. And in that election Malliotakis won the 6th as drawn by about 2 points, while doing almost exactly the same as Silva in this local election. So he actually did worse than other city-wide GOP'ers here!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This analysis was too amazing not to share.

https://twitter.com/rrhelections/status/1488946970223906816?s=21

NY-06 Safe Dem>Lean R
#CantDismissTheCurtis

[ProgressiveModerate]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

State Site has yet to be updated with the exact vote transcripts, but one NO D vote I can see on twitter was Marcela Mitaynes of Brooklyn. Senate is expected to vote between 3 and 4.

She also a DSA member. Makes me wonder if DSA memberrs in state Senate could shoot it down but I think most likely it passes with 2/3rds or more.

She also represents Red Hook where the map gets quite crazy so maybe that has something to do with it too.

[Torie]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe817ecb-ce7f-405e-8a00-6e2fcc802294

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watching the live stream they passing stuff extremely fast in the State Senate lol (nothing on the maps yet)

[ProgressiveModerate]

They about to vote I think

https://www.nysenate.gov/

Stream

[lfromnj]

I mean if it comes up for a vote its obviously going to pass.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

So much for the two thirds threshold lol. New York really pulled through

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

Hopefully it is near the CD-1, CD-2 border in Nassau Co...

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

Hopefully it is near the CD-1, CD-2 border in Nassau Co...

The changes were two 0 population census blocks being swapped in NY-10 from what I can tell.

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

Hopefully it is near the CD-1, CD-2 border in Nassau Co...

The changes were two 0 population census blocks being swapped in NY-10 from what I can tell.

Had a feeling it was something like that.