2020 New York Redistricting

[Brittain33]

The NYS Dems seem to hate Orthodox Jews. They get screwed in every cycle.

Given Simcha Felder's behavior, you can see why the relationship may have some tension. Orthodox Jewish leaders have been, at best, highly transactional with NYS Dems.

[BoiseBoy]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .

Biden +23.7
Clinton +32.3

[Oryxslayer]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .

Biden +23.7
Clinton +32.3

64.4/32.1 to 61.3/37.5. More relevant is the 44.4% Asian VAP.

[Brittain33]

The nonsense of looping a tendril NY-10 around NY-11 reminds me exactly of the vicious gerrymander TX Republicans did in northwestern Dallas County to ensure that VanDuyne's district was solid R and all the Hispanic communities in the area were satisfactorily drowned in Republican districts. It looks almost as bad - the Texas gerrymander pulls in more districts so looks worse.

[Torie]

The NYS Dems seem to hate Orthodox Jews. They get screwed in every cycle.

Given Simcha Felder's behavior, you can see why the relationship may have some tension. Orthodox Jewish leaders have been, at best, highly transactional with NYS Dems.

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me. But then, they are not good with the media, and do seem to take it laying down. They could take to the streets protesting in front of high visibility venues. It also is too damn cold at the moment, and the dog hates walking on salty sidewalks. So he is carried to snow banks to cavort and do his business. No sun came through the skylights today due to being covered with snow.

[GALeftist]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .

Biden +23.7
Clinton +32.3

64.4/32.1 to 61.3/37.5. More relevant is the 44.4% Asian VAP.

Meng is only in her late 40s so hopefully she can keep it locked down for the foreseeable future

[Oryxslayer]

The nonsense of looping a tendril NY-10 around NY-11 reminds me exactly of the vicious gerrymander TX Republicans did in northwestern Dallas County to ensure that VanDuyne's district was solid R and all the Hispanic communities in the area were satisfactorily drowned in Republican districts. It looks almost as bad - the Texas gerrymander pulls in more districts so looks worse.

The thing is though...such tendrils are not needed. Get NY-05 involved in the orthodox carve-up and NY-10 could take other areas. This however what Nadler wants. A district that can best be described as a "Jewish Seat" - dominated by Manhattan of course.

[Brittain33]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

[Torie]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

Except in OH they only followed the objective criteria and still tried to make as R friendly of a map as possible. NY literally has no quantifiable criteria.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh boy. They really went all in.

[lfromnj]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

Except in OH they only followed the objective criteria and still tried to make as R friendly of a map as possible. NY literally has no quantifiable criteria.

Not really but they did have other stuff to worry about including the court and a ballot measure.
There was the Dayton seat . Akron also could have been drawn into a Trump seat with Canton. Infact Democrats even propose that except they want to keep Summit instead of Stark whole.

I think I've finally made a map that I'm content with. 15 county splits apart from multi-county cities and very compact. It also keeps all major metro areas, Akron-Canton, Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati's suburbs, Amish communities, minority communities (two majority-minority seats) and most of Appalachian Ohio respectively together.

In addition to the COIs kept that I tried to maximize, it would fit the court's demand for partisan fairness pretty well: it goes 9-6 for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Any Democrat that wins the state carries a majority of districts; Obama would have won 8/15, and Dems won 7/15 in both their narrow GOV/AG losses in 2018, with the 8th seat being within a couple points of winning. Brown would have won 10/15

Just take this map that cv party and remove that arm into Eastern Cleveland suburbs like shaker heights.

Hamilton wasn't maximized but very much still a very aggressive gerrymander.

[MillennialModerate]

Going 22-4 is not “going all in”

That’s a 7 seat swing……9 was really the minimum we needed out of NY to make the nation even close to fair. They could’ve made a prettt damn safe 23-3

[swf541]

Going 22-4 is not “going all in”

That’s a 7 seat swing……9 was really the minimum we needed out of NY to make the nation even close to fair. They could’ve made a prettt damn safe 23-3

It's not but given its the NY leg i expected smth much less aggressive.

[Brittain33]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

It's totally fair to say that there are general outlines and NY is breaking them - I get that - it's the outrage about NYS Dems breaking up an Orthodox Jewish community because it votes against them as if it were unusually bad, when it's exactly what happens in every other state, usually to African-Americans at the hands of Republicans, and everyone acknowledges it's BAU and good politics. And also, there's at least some deniability about violating mushy guidelines about unduly favoring etc. vs. outright ignoring actual directives as in Ohio. Both are bad but the latter isn't even plausibly deniable.

[Torie]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

It's totally fair to say that there are general outlines and NY is breaking them - I get that - it's the outrage about NYS Dems breaking up an Orthodox Jewish community because it votes against them as if it were unusually bad, when it's exactly what happens in every other state, usually to African-Americans at the hands of Republicans, and everyone acknowledges it's BAU and good politics. And also, there's at least some deniability about violating mushy guidelines about unduly favoring etc. vs. outright ignoring actual directives as in Ohio. Both are bad but the latter isn't even plausibly deniable.

The VRA protects other groups, and in this day and age, I tend to doubt the Pubs would crack an otherwise protected VRA seat. I also don't think the Pubs outright ignored the Ohio law, and I think a reasonable argument could be made that the law did not demand outright proportionality, that forces ugly gerrymanders. And that requirement does not apply to CD's. There the court applied mushy guidelines to blow the Pubs out, in a way that I think went too far actually outside the Hamilton seat.

On this one we will just have to agree to disagree. Have a nice evening.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Going 22-4 is not “going all in”

That’s a 7 seat swing……9 was really the minimum we needed out of NY to make the nation even close to fair. They could’ve made a prettt damn safe 23-3

Uh the median seat could still very well vote to the left of the nation

[Tintrlvr]

The map is clever, and what they did with NY-10 is interesting. I think they plan to justify it as an Asian-opportunity district that combines Manhattan and Brooklyn Chinatown areas, especially with the large ultra-Orthodox population that means the white vote is far from monolithic. To that end, I see why they didn't end up min-maxing NY-11 because it becomes harder to do so if you want to keep Manhattan Chinatown in NY-10. However, I do have a proposal below that actually gets NY-10 well below majority white on VAP (44.2% white, 33.4% Asian, 15.0% Hispanic) while improving the D% in NY-11 noticeably and keeping the ultra-Orthodox areas united in one district (not one they would like!) - but this would be unpopular with a certain group of white politicians on the Upper West Side:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7481ad2-6ce8-48ea-ad40-9119301e6bee

[Oryxslayer]

The map is clever, and what they did with NY-10 is interesting. I think they plan to justify it as an Asian-opportunity district that combines Manhattan and Brooklyn Chinatown areas, especially with the large ultra-Orthodox population that means the white vote is far from monolithic. To that end, I see why they didn't end up min-maxing NY-11 because it becomes harder to do so if you want to keep Manhattan Chinatown in NY-10. However, I do have a proposal below that actually gets NY-10 below majority white on VAP (47.7% white, 29.8% Asian, 14.7% Hispanic) while improving the D% in NY-11 noticeably - but this would be unpopular with a certain group of white politicians on the Upper West Side:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7481ad2-6ce8-48ea-ad40-9119301e6bee

Last I checked Velasquez lives in Red Hook, so that is the main reason why things have to get complicated around the Brooklyn-Battery tunnel. Obviously incumbents doesn't need to be in their seat, but the D legislature looks out for their own.

[Tintrlvr]

The map is clever, and what they did with NY-10 is interesting. I think they plan to justify it as an Asian-opportunity district that combines Manhattan and Brooklyn Chinatown areas, especially with the large ultra-Orthodox population that means the white vote is far from monolithic. To that end, I see why they didn't end up min-maxing NY-11 because it becomes harder to do so if you want to keep Manhattan Chinatown in NY-10. However, I do have a proposal below that actually gets NY-10 below majority white on VAP (47.7% white, 29.8% Asian, 14.7% Hispanic) while improving the D% in NY-11 noticeably - but this would be unpopular with a certain group of white politicians on the Upper West Side:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7481ad2-6ce8-48ea-ad40-9119301e6bee

Last I checked Velasquez lives in Red Hook, so that is the main reason why things have to get complicated around the Brooklyn-Battery tunnel. Obviously incumbents doesn't need to be in their seat, but the D legislature looks out for their own.

She doesn't live in the district proposed by the legislature, either, as she lives right on the waterfront, in a precinct that is currently and continues to be in the proposal in Nadler's district. I take the point, but it is still solvable on my proposal with some messier lines in downtown Brooklyn if you really want to get her district to touch Red Hook.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...

Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

[rhg2052]

New NY-11er here. Very excited to vote out Malliotakis this fall, and very interested to see what the primary looks like. Park Slope, Sunset Park, and Staten Island all have very different segments of the Democratic electorate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lowkey Dems are kinda lucky NYC has so many R enclaves; the NYC districts aren't really "overppacked" like SF Bay or PA-03

[Pericles]

This is a job well done by New York Democrats. While awful for democracy, they know how to boost their own interests. Republicans can take up the offer any time to outlaw this kind of map drawing nationwide.

[lfromnj]

Lowkey Dems are kinda lucky NYC has so many R enclaves; the NYC districts aren't really "overppacked" like SF Bay or PA-03

From a gerrymander perspective you mean right ?
NYC is around 11 seats but a fair map would have 1 likely r in Staten Island and 1 swingy south Brooklyn seat. Easy to nuke in a gerrymander but Ra have pretty decent geography considering the city is 75% D
NY Rs mostly have the worst geography in the Hudson Valley  atleast by Biden numbers.

For example in LA county it voted 71% Biden yet the only possible Republican seats are a Biden +12 seat in the north of the county and a very small portion of SE LA county near Orange County going to the Asian seat in OC.

The Bay area actually voted pretty similar to NYC(if you include Stockton/San Joaquin which IIRC had a lot of growth due to people who can't find any other housing) with a similar # of districts . Yet NYC R's can pretty reasonably have 2 Trump seats along with an eye open on the Asian district. Yet the only "winnable" R seat in the bay area here would be the San Joaquin seat which is Biden +15 or just a few points more R than the Asian seat. Having pretty close to proportional representation in such a disproportional area is actually a square deal for the GOP

NY  dems relatively make up for their geographical disadvantage here due to immigrants not being voters. Overall if you do by the double rule Biden would be expected to win 73% of seats or exactly 19. A fair map has 2 LI Trump seats, 1-2 in Southern NYC. 4 in upstate NY as Tenney's seat is cut but Delgado's moves to being a narrow Trump seat. So biden wins 18/26