2020 New York Redistricting

[cvparty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

that seems like a really bad idea

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

How is this really bad? There are only 3 GOP-favoring seats in upstate under this plan, and I've checked the numbers, the Albany and Syracuse seats both voted Clinton. The Scenectady seat also was really close in 2016, and now you've furnished even more evidence of this, with it being EVEN.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's also the consideration that any House district that has all of Albany in it is going to be hard for the GOP to win in all but the worst of conditions, due to the inelasticity of the county. (Though this becomes less true the smaller the % in population of the CD comes from said county)

In 2014 Paul Tonko was returned to office with 62% of the vote. I think we can afford to unpack his district.

[Tintrlvr]

Would be crazy to reach Delgado's district up to Plattsburgh.

I was actually referring to Tonko's district going up to Plattsburgh, not Delgado's. Delgado would take a chomp out of more D-leaning Albany area communities. Stefanik would take in more conservative areas in Delgado's (and Brindisi's) districts.

It is a bit of an outlandish idea though -- I might try and draw it to see if it'd work.

Got it. Tonko is based in Albany and wouldn't want to lose a lot of the Albany area to someone else, and his district isn't super safe to the point of being able to drop a lot of Democratic areas. Plattsburgh is not very big or very Democratic, so seems pretty unlikely.

[Nyvin]

There's also the consideration that any House district that has all of Albany in it is going to be hard for the GOP to win in all but the worst of conditions, due to the inelasticity of the county. (Though this becomes less true the smaller the % in population of the CD comes from said county)

In 2014 Paul Tonko was returned to office with 62% of the vote. I think we can afford to unpack his district.

I doubt the NY Dems would go for it with the way Upstate NY is trending recently.   When you draw safe districts you want some kind of buffer in place in case of a bad election.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/060abf38-58dd-470e-957a-8a2a7c3e6c38
something like this

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c77798-629d-417c-9f85-0168c675234d
17 - R+1
18 - D+2
19 - D+2
20 - R+0
21 - R+5
22 - D+6
23 - R+7
24 - D+7
25 - R+12
26 - D+9

indeed, a really bad idea

How is this really bad? There are only 3 GOP-favoring seats in upstate under this plan, and I've checked the numbers, the Albany and Syracuse seats both voted Clinton. The Scenectady seat also was really close in 2016, and now you've furnished even more evidence of this, with it being EVEN.

The Albany-to-Plattsburgh idea would be less risky if you wanted to do something really aggressive like this. Leave the solid GOP areas out of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0dff3bc8-2479-44a4-9b3b-3a02a71fe404
what about this?
This has a district running from Torie's home county all the way to Quebec and boosts the Obama 08 % in the "Binghambany" district by 1.9 points and in the leftovers Capital Region seat by 0.9 points. The seats in the Lower Hudson Valley are unchanged.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean if you want a Dem Gerry....

I'm not under any impression that such a map is realistic.

25 district map BTW.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6fc23244-133c-40cb-9f9a-33a7454643c6

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0dff3bc8-2479-44a4-9b3b-3a02a71fe404
what about this?
This has a district running from Torie's home county all the way to Quebec and boosts the Obama 08 % in the "Binghambany" district by 1.9 points and in the leftovers Capital Region seat by 0.9 points. The seats in the Lower Hudson Valley are unchanged.

This is really risky because you've put Elise Stefanik in the only marginally (at best) D district, and she is a strong incumbent. While Tonko's district is still only like D+3, which he is not going to be comfortable with (even if it's enough for the seat to be Likely D, for now anyway - but do remember that this map is supposed to last a decade).

[Non Swing Voter]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

[Tintrlvr]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

There is a commission, albeit a weak one. Also, the Democratic majority in New York is new and includes a lot of people committed to ideals instead of partisan politics. And a surprising amount of New York is simply immune to gerrymandering: There isn't much you can do on Long Island, e.g., unless you really want to create a safe Republican seat to shore up the Democratic seats, but it's not clear that's what the Democrats want or should want given that they could draw four fair seats that are all winnable for the Democrats instead. Beyond the obvious (make sure Ithaca and Syracuse are finally paired with each other, connect Staten Island to the hyper-liberal white areas of Brooklyn and ensure the one seat lost (if it is only one seat) is a Republican one, most notably), the Democrats are already at their maximum number of safe seats, and there isn't that much to be done to shore them up without creating opportunities for the Republicans unless you're willing to bacon strip from NYC, which the Democrats definitely are not (and which also has the problem of creating issues with minority representation, which is a delicate balancing act in NYC and dictates the shape of most districts largely as they are now).

[cinyc]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

Republicans currently hold 5/26 seats, with a vacancy in the 27th (an R-leaning seat). There's no way you can eliminate all 5 or 6. At most, you can probably take out 2 or 3 Republicans without baconstripping NYC or some really funny business upstate - and all but the baconstripping would probably end up being a dummymander after a few years, anyway.

The NY 2020 goal will likely be shoring up D incumbents. The commission will likely do that even if Dems get a supermajority in the Senate, rendering the commission essentially toothless.

[cvparty]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

the geography of the state is terrible for gerrymandering. you could easily make the staten island district democratic, but the current lines upstate are basically the best democrats can do without risking a massive dummymander. suffolk co’s districts are also pretty untouchable unless you do some really weird lines

[Nyvin]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

the geography of the state is terrible for gerrymandering. you could easily make the staten island district democratic, but the current lines upstate are basically the best democrats can do without risking a massive dummymander. suffolk co’s districts are also pretty untouchable unless you do some really weird lines

The only real big improvement to make Upstate for Democrats is uniting Ithaca with Syracuse.   The rest of the seats are all pretty much set in place for the most part (without doing anything crazy anyway).

I'd see NY-11 becoming a safe D district as a no brainer if the Dem legislature has any say at all in what happens.

Interestingly - If NY does lose two seats, that actually REALLY helps Max Rose's seat (NY-11) become even more safe since it'll have to go futher into Kings, where there's pretty much no Republican votes whatsoever past the Orthodox Jewish areas.

[Tintrlvr]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

the geography of the state is terrible for gerrymandering. you could easily make the staten island district democratic, but the current lines upstate are basically the best democrats can do without risking a massive dummymander. suffolk co’s districts are also pretty untouchable unless you do some really weird lines

The only real big improvement to make Upstate for Democrats is uniting Ithaca with Syracuse.   The rest of the seats are all pretty much set in place for the most part (without doing anything crazy anyway).

I'd see NY-11 becoming a safe D district as a no brainer if the Dem legislature has any say at all in what happens.

Interestingly - If NY does lose two seats, that actually REALLY helps Max Rose's seat (NY-11) become even more safe since it'll have to go futher into Kings, where there's pretty much no Republican votes whatsoever past the Orthodox Jewish areas.

Yes, although you do have to thread it carefully around Borough Park, assuming the approach of putting Borough Park in Nadler's district is maintained (a commission might get rid of that arrangement, though, in which case all bets are off).

[Sol]

One speculative scenario: the discussion about Velazquez's district on the congressional elections board got me thinking. IIRC Much of the oddness of her district comes from a desire to put Sunset Park in the same district as Chinatown while also keeping Puerto Rican neighborhoods together--it's a bit of understandable logic for a bizarre district. Is a district along the lines of the current NY-07 likely/possible?

Additionally, will it be possible to draw two black-majority districts in Brooklyn anymore?

[Suburbia]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

[Sol]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

Sunset Park is the obvious area to slide into to shore up Max Rose. But it's not clear to me if that'd be acceptable because of the large Latino and Chinese communities there, which might prefer Velazquez's district. There's not much else in the vicinity to really boost him up.

I know in past discussion on this topic folks have talked about the possibility of giving him a slice of lower Manhattan on account of this issue. Heck, he could take in the Sunset Park Chinese community and the Manhattan Chinatown if you want more nonconfigurational logic in redistricting.

[MaxQue]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

If NY lose 2 seats, that seat is probably doomed, not much Republican areas to add.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Additionally, will it be possible to draw two black-majority districts in Brooklyn anymore?

I don't think it is possible any more. It was only BARELY possible in 2010, and since then the general trends of district populations increasing, Hispanic/Asian population growth, suburbanization/spreading out of the African American population, and gentrification into black majority areas have all continued.

What I would expect to happen is that it will be similar to what gradually happened in other places like Los Angeles where it was no longer possible to draw black majority districts. The districts will remain with a black plurality (should be easily in the 40%-50% range) and that will be sufficient at least for the time-being for black voters to have an ability to elect the candidate of their choice. The most obvious way for that to happen is for the districts to abandon white liberal & gentrifying areas in the north-west of the current districts and instead to take on more territory (which is less liberal, more competitive, and in some cases Republican on the presidential level (Orthodox Jewish precincts).

From the perspective of the incumbents, this is a "win-win" - it means that the Staten Island district (and potentially also Nadler's district) don't need to suck up competitive/Republican territory in southern Brooklyn, and instead can include more liberal areas in NW Brooklyn which will make the Staten Island district in particular safe Dem in the General Election. Meanwhile the black incumbents in the the black plurality districts are also safer, because they no longer have to worry about progressive primary challenges based from the high-turnout white liberal precincts in north-west Brooklyn (and obviously they remain 110% safe in a General Election).


-- edit --

also from Max Rose's wikipedia page:

"Rose grew up primarily in Park Slope. He is Jewish, and celebrated becoming a bar mitzvah at Union Temple of Brooklyn in Prospect Heights."

So yeah, that is doubly more reason to expect Park Slope to be drawn into his district, and perhaps at least a good chunk of Prospect Heights also.

[Tintrlvr]

Additionally, will it be possible to draw two black-majority districts in Brooklyn anymore?

I don't think it is possible any more. It was only BARELY possible in 2010, and since then the general trends of district populations increasing, Hispanic/Asian population growth, suburbanization/spreading out of the African American population, and gentrification into black majority areas have all continued.

What I would expect to happen is that it will be similar to what gradually happened in other places like Los Angeles where it was no longer possible to draw black majority districts. The districts will remain with a black plurality (should be easily in the 40%-50% range) and that will be sufficient at least for the time-being for black voters to have an ability to elect the candidate of their choice. The most obvious way for that to happen is for the districts to abandon white liberal & gentrifying areas in the north-west of the current districts and instead to take on more territory (which is less liberal, more competitive, and in some cases Republican on the presidential level (Orthodox Jewish precincts).

From the perspective of the incumbents, this is a "win-win" - it means that the Staten Island district (and potentially also Nadler's district) don't need to suck up competitive/Republican territory in southern Brooklyn, and instead can include more liberal areas in NW Brooklyn which will make the Staten Island district in particular safe Dem in the General Election. Meanwhile the black incumbents in the the black plurality districts are also safer, because they no longer have to worry about progressive primary challenges based from the high-turnout white liberal precincts in north-west Brooklyn (and obviously they remain 110% safe in a General Election).


-- edit --

also from Max Rose's wikipedia page:

"Rose grew up primarily in Park Slope. He is Jewish, and celebrated becoming a bar mitzvah at Union Temple of Brooklyn in Prospect Heights."

So yeah, that is doubly more reason to expect Park Slope to be drawn into his district, and perhaps at least a good chunk of Prospect Heights also.

Prospect Heights (my neighborhood!) won't be drawn into Rose's district, as the black population is too substantial here even with demographic shifts over the past decade to be put anywhere but one of the black districts (presumably kept in Clarke's district). They could try pushing Rose's district west into Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill, though, if the population works. Those neighborhoods are very heavily white and were only added to Velazquez's district in 2010 (i.e., she doesn't care about keeping them, and most of the minority politicians of late view having too many white liberals in their districts as somewhat dangerous to them in a primary in any case).

I agree that making the black districts actually majority black appears to no longer be possible (even on a -1 map and especially on a -2 map), but I don't think either Clarke or (especially) Jeffries feels particularly strongly about whether their district is 51% black or 45% black. Clarke is most interested in excising out voters who vote against her in primaries (so, white liberals in Park Slope) but doesn't care so much about having white Republicans in her seat. Jeffries probably would like to have more white liberals in his district but it's not something important to him (and he gets more just by virtue of demographic shifts anyway).

The 2020 primary will be important here, though. If Clarke loses her primary (and I would say it's 50/50 at this point, only not more because the internal factional strife has died down a bit since the IDC went belly up), all calculations on what will be done with her district are off.

[Tintrlvr]

Should NY-11 extend into Sunset Park, etc., more liberal areas?

If a Staten Island Republican wins, can they hold on?

Bay Ridge is one of the last Brooklyn GOP strongholds.

Sunset Park is the obvious area to slide into to shore up Max Rose. But it's not clear to me if that'd be acceptable because of the large Latino and Chinese communities there, which might prefer Velazquez's district. There's not much else in the vicinity to really boost him up.

I know in past discussion on this topic folks have talked about the possibility of giving him a slice of lower Manhattan on account of this issue. Heck, he could take in the Sunset Park Chinese community and the Manhattan Chinatown if you want more nonconfigurational logic in redistricting.

They're not going to take Chinese areas (either eastern Sunset Park or Chinatown) out of Velazquez's district. It's a key part of her coalition: She likes having populations that are part of political machines in her district. I don't think Velazquez's district is reasonable, but it's also not going anywhere.

Staten Island-to-Manhattan was an arrangement that existed before the 2000s redistricting (I think? Maybe it was the 90s redistricting), so it could definitely come back, though I don't think it's especially likely. If it did, though, it wouldn't take Chinatown, nor would the Democrats want it to, as Chinatown is actually one of the least Democratic (and lowest turnout) parts of Manhattan. It would instead travel up the west side through Tribeca and into Greenwich Village, taking in lots of 90% Democratic, high-turnout, heavily white areas. This would totally destroy Nadler's district, of course, so would be dependent on the map-drawers deciding to eliminate his district and consolidate the remainder of the white parts of Manhattan into Maloney's district (which then also pulls out of Brooklyn and Queens). That could happen if Nadler retires (and he is fairly old) but isn't going to happen as long as he's still around.

As discussed in other posts, the likeliest solution is to thread Rose's district up to the white liberal parts of Brooklyn that are right now mostly in Clarke's district: Kensington, Windsor Terrace, Park Slope and maybe even as far as Carroll Gardens and Cobble Hill (the F train corridor, basically the most liberal place in the country).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Prospect Heights (my neighborhood!) won't be drawn into Rose's district, as the black population is too substantial here even with demographic shifts over the past decade to be put anywhere but one of the black districts (presumably kept in Clarke's district). They could try pushing Rose's district west into Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill, though, if the population works. Those neighborhoods are very heavily white and were only added to Velazquez's district in 2010 (i.e., she doesn't care about keeping them, and most of the minority politicians of late view having too many white liberals in their districts as somewhat dangerous to them in a primary in any case).

I agree that making the black districts actually majority black appears to no longer be possible (even on a -1 map and especially on a -2 map), but I don't think either Clarke or (especially) Jeffries feels particularly strongly about whether their district is 51% black or 45% black. Clarke is most interested in excising out voters who vote against her in primaries (so, white liberals in Park Slope) but doesn't care so much about having white Republicans in her seat. Jeffries probably would like to have more white liberals in his district but it's not something important to him (and he gets more just by virtue of demographic shifts anyway).

The 2020 primary will be important here, though. If Clarke loses her primary (and I would say it's 50/50 at this point, only not more because the internal factional strife has died down a bit since the IDC went belly up), all calculations on what will be done with her district are off.

Re: Prospect Heights, I wouldn't say the whole thing gets drawn in, but it is only 25% black in the 2016 DRA data, and should be lower in the 2020 data. A bunch of precincts particularly in the western part are lower than that also, so even if it doesn't all get drawn in, it definitely seems conceivable that some precincts could be. Yes, Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill make sense of course.

However, since you mention Jeffries, he apparently lives in Prospect Heights, so he might well get some or all of it.

If Yvette Clarke loses her primary in 2020 due to votes from white voters in the western part of current NY-09 (but still wins in majority black areas in the rest of the district), there will still be a VRA case (indeed, more of a VRA case than currently) to remove those white liberal parts from NY-09, since they will have stopped the district from 'performing' and it won't have elected the candidate of choice of African American voters.

[Tintrlvr]

Prospect Heights (my neighborhood!) won't be drawn into Rose's district, as the black population is too substantial here even with demographic shifts over the past decade to be put anywhere but one of the black districts (presumably kept in Clarke's district). They could try pushing Rose's district west into Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill, though, if the population works. Those neighborhoods are very heavily white and were only added to Velazquez's district in 2010 (i.e., she doesn't care about keeping them, and most of the minority politicians of late view having too many white liberals in their districts as somewhat dangerous to them in a primary in any case).

I agree that making the black districts actually majority black appears to no longer be possible (even on a -1 map and especially on a -2 map), but I don't think either Clarke or (especially) Jeffries feels particularly strongly about whether their district is 51% black or 45% black. Clarke is most interested in excising out voters who vote against her in primaries (so, white liberals in Park Slope) but doesn't care so much about having white Republicans in her seat. Jeffries probably would like to have more white liberals in his district but it's not something important to him (and he gets more just by virtue of demographic shifts anyway).

The 2020 primary will be important here, though. If Clarke loses her primary (and I would say it's 50/50 at this point, only not more because the internal factional strife has died down a bit since the IDC went belly up), all calculations on what will be done with her district are off.

Re: Prospect Heights, I wouldn't say the whole thing gets drawn in, but it is only 25% black in the 2016 DRA data, and should be lower in the 2020 data. A bunch of precincts particularly in the western part are lower than that also, so even if it doesn't all get drawn in, it definitely seems conceivable that some precincts could be. Yes, Carroll Gardens/Cobble Hill make sense of course.

However, since you mention Jeffries, he apparently lives in Prospect Heights, so he might well get some or all of it.

If Yvette Clarke loses her primary in 2020 due to votes from white voters in the western part of current NY-09 (but still wins in majority black areas in the rest of the district), there will still be a VRA case (indeed, more of a VRA case than currently) to remove those white liberal parts from NY-09, since they will have stopped the district from 'performing' and it won't have elected the candidate of choice of African American voters.

Yes and no on the last point - given that the candidate who is likely to defeat her, Adem Bunkedekko, is also black and does get a lot of support from recent African and Caribbean immigrants also (but the largest portion of his support from white liberals). I don't think the VRA would really be implicated since immediately after Clarke loses Bunkedekko would become the preferred black candidate. There is precedent here. Donna Edwards definitely lost the black vote when she defeated Albert Wynn in the primary in MD-04 in 2008, but she immediately started winning the black vote in subsequent elections.