2020 New York Redistricting
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #500 on: December 31, 2021, 09:49:36 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.
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Torie
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« Reply #501 on: January 01, 2022, 03:07:09 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2022, 03:15:54 PM by Torie »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #502 on: January 01, 2022, 03:31:06 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.
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Torie
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« Reply #503 on: January 01, 2022, 03:35:31 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #504 on: January 01, 2022, 03:51:59 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.


Well, by respecting jurisdictional lines and compactness, while geography may favor the Democrats, it does not unduly favor the Democrats.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #505 on: January 01, 2022, 03:52:48 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.
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Torie
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« Reply #506 on: January 01, 2022, 04:03:52 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.


Counsel, what is the reason for that NY-21 chop into Madison County? Please be specific. And what do northern Washington County and Binghamton have in common? Why is NY-19 going up there?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #507 on: January 01, 2022, 04:06:45 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.


Well, by respecting jurisdictional lines and compactness, while geography may favor the Democrats, it does not unduly favor the Democrats.
The alternate version I posted in any case does seem to adhere to compactness standard, even if the previous version (with its arm to Utica) does not.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #508 on: January 01, 2022, 04:15:24 PM »

I think there's a pretty good reason for giving Katko Ithaca, as both Syracuse and Ithaca are college towns. It sure makes more sense imo to put Tompkins with Onondaga than to group it with a bunch of random rurals it shares very little in common with.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #509 on: January 01, 2022, 04:17:14 PM »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.


Counsel, what is the reason for that NY-21 chop into Madison County? Please be specific. And what do northern Washington County and Binghamton have in common? Why is NY-19 going up there?
"north Washington County" and Binghamton in the same CD does sound like the sort of question that would hurt in a court hearing. I've done round two of revisions.
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Torie
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« Reply #510 on: January 01, 2022, 04:24:18 PM »

My request is that you come up with your talking points in advance. You know what I will pounce on like a batter who sees a slow hanging curve ball drift over the middle of the plate. Otherwise the game is just not very fun.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #511 on: January 01, 2022, 04:58:17 PM »

My request is that you come up with your talking points in advance. You know what I will pounce on like a batter who sees a slow hanging curve ball drift over the middle of the plate. Otherwise the game is just not very fun.

This feels like low key bullying /s
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #512 on: January 01, 2022, 05:34:26 PM »


On another note, here is a gerrymander designed to turn as much congressional districts as possible in Upstate New York into a competitive swing district. No municipalities were split.
DRA link
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Torie
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« Reply #513 on: January 01, 2022, 06:49:16 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2022, 06:55:26 PM by Torie »


-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.
Apologies, I was trying to draw a clean-looking Dem gerrymander and forgot to say so.

Your map is very skillfully done, particularly the way it screws the Pubs out of a Brooklyn seat under the guise of uniting the Orthodox Jews of Borough Park with those of Williamsburg. You also handled NY-17 and 18 very well, given that the issue of finding a seat for the way too far left for the area Mondaire Jones to thrive and prosper is basically unsolvable.  But what are your talking points justifying all those chops and erosity upstate to prop up Delgado (who by the way is campaigning non stop these days and has not uttered a progressive thought in months), and ax Katko? I think you have an issue there. See the map below. What is the rationale for not drawing that map versus the one you drew other than for partisan reasons?  The whole Dem dream of giving Katko Thompkins County just lacks any talking points that are worth a damn imo. Ditto giving it to Delgado. The best one can do is give Katko, Utica (yes, Katko, not Delgado, but nice try though Smiley )

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36d04a1b-2371-4210-a7b5-7e7d9e0dd0ac


The chops aren't all that exceptional. If anything, they are not that many, especially when compared to the 2003-2013 map (just one look at the district of John E. Sweeney will tell you why), and just about as numerous as the 2013-2023 one.

Back then, there was no "no unduly law," and you have not answered the question as to why you drew the lines the way you drew them other than to screw the already underrepresented Pubs out of more seats. If you don't have talking points, you don't have much of a defense.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5afddbc1-4b19-4d35-a9df-4fe8c97d2b5b
I've removed the arm to Utica and reconfigured all but one of the districts in Central and Northern NY in this alternate version.

That I think is absolutely the best one can do for the Dem case to get that partisan payoff, but with losing about a point in margin, one can do the below and make it seem less obvious that putting Tompkins, all of it, in the Katko CD, was job one. Now you have a talking point, that Thompkins was the most logical county to chop, given CD compactness, and given leaving un-chopped, the "core" county, Onandago,  and its metro area, was paramount. Securing that talking point, which is also easy on the eyes, is well worth the price in partisan spoils lost, imo.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3904a151-ce14-439d-b708-25ed6f7efa5a

Well done!


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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #514 on: January 02, 2022, 04:51:12 PM »

Tomorrow we’ll see a vote on maps to advance to the legislature.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #515 on: January 03, 2022, 11:02:07 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2022, 11:36:45 AM by Oryxslayer »

Commission has posted their competing plans. Not immediately apparent which is which parties plan, but map A is more D favorable so yeah. Both are D favoring, showing how much the scales are tilted in their favor, but the NYC suburbs and Staten are drawn differently. Map A isn't as extreme of a gerry as thought, but this is the commission, not the leg.

Katko on both maps is having to hold a massive L. '

Neither though got a majority of votes and both were submitted with 5 votes, 100% of one party's members or 50% of the body.

The legislative maps are actually substantially divergent whereas the congressional maps are both D favoring and only differ around NYC.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #516 on: January 03, 2022, 01:13:11 PM »

Both versions of NY-22 look like it was drawn to bring back Anthony Brindisi.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #517 on: January 03, 2022, 01:48:29 PM »

Poor Katko is a party line vote on almost everything in a Biden+9 district and is still hated so much by his own party that they literally drew an Onondaga-Tompkins-Utica district to get rid of him lol. Packwatch
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rhg2052
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« Reply #518 on: January 03, 2022, 04:31:26 PM »

The two halves of NY-10 are really stretching the definition of contiguity lmao

Speaking of, guess I'll be in Nadler's district once one of the maps gets approved. Wonder how much longer he'll stick around before retiring.
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Torie
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« Reply #519 on: January 03, 2022, 05:06:57 PM »

I look forward to the lawsuit on this one. I thin NY-18 and NY-19 were made somewhat marginal due to the need to get a 2/3's vote and make Mondaire Jones happy. As it is though, the chops there to prop up both CD's in the south, with the Dems to the west being unavailable since they were used to weaken Katko, are going to be hard to explain away as not "unduly" favoring one party.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #520 on: January 03, 2022, 05:41:03 PM »

Map A looks bad for Jamaal Bowman.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #521 on: January 03, 2022, 06:15:32 PM »

Neither of these are going to be the map
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #522 on: January 03, 2022, 06:40:24 PM »


Yes, unless something changes, the likely outcome right now is both maps failing to obtain 2/3s of the legislature's votes. This gives the commission a final attempt at a compromise map (lol given the breakdown) before the legislature assumes responsibility.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #523 on: January 03, 2022, 08:06:43 PM »

Some expected results in these maps beyond partisan considerations, e.g., Yvette Clarke's district was purged of white liberals for the sin of voting for the candidate who nearly unseated her in the primary in 2018. Interesting but not shocking that they chose NY-02 as the R-pack on Long Island; that way, the Democratic candidate in NY-01 can be someone who also gets to rely on the fundraising of representing the Hamptons.

I expect the final result will be closer to Plan A than Plan B; don't think the Democrats want to risk two Republicans on Long Island for the outside chance of a sweep, and of course the Democrats would rather the Staten Island seat become D-leaning.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #524 on: January 03, 2022, 08:57:01 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2022, 09:34:21 PM by Nyvin »

They added shapefiles on the website

Plan A
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bdd3d852-55a1-4226-bef1-5669362357d7


Plan B
https://davesredistricting.org/join/98541de6-2862-4f03-9953-a5ea98755df2

Surprised the Dems didn't really go for the kill on NY-11, they left it Trump+6.2%, which should be easily winnable for Malliotakis.   The Republican map even add some of the Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods to make it Trump+10.8%.  

After that the biggest difference in the two maps is Long Island, Republicans basically made a vote sink out of NY-4, while Dems try to pack Republicans as much as possible into NY-2.

Katko really doesn't get any love from anyone, lol.

Looking it over now, wouldn't it be possible Legislative R's would accept plan A?   The Democrats can kinda hold NY-11 and maybe even NY-1 hostage in that NY-2 can be further R packed and NY-11 can obviously be made safe D if the map was a complete D gerrymander.   At least this map leaves the Republicans those two seats (NY-11 and NY-1) that are winnable.
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