2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thought I'd have another go at making my Long Island gerrymander as neat as possible. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b1b49423-bcb6-4e96-bac6-3598e2109ac7



5th and 6th are black and Asian VRA districts (44% black and 45% Asian respectively)

1st is Biden+9 in 2020, D+14 in 2016-20 composite
2nd is Biden+10 in 2020, D+18 in 2016-20 composite
3rd is Biden+9 in 2020, D+13 in 2016-20 composite
4th is Biden+10 in 2020, D+16 in 2016-20 composite

So... you've got 4 seats that are pretty safe but could conceivably fall in a landslide. Is it worth it? I don't know.

I'm impressed at how clean you made this. This definitely looks worth it imo.

[cinyc]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

A lot of states have "anti-gerrymandering" clauses in their constitution.

Like most of these other states, the NYS constitution specifies no objective metrics and the NYSC leans left.

It's not impossible a gerrymandered map is overturned, but it's probably have to be really egregious. I could see state legistlative maps being overturned more easily though as more things could go wrong with VRA/COIs and also there's a bit less pressure on the justices as a NYS CD case could ultimately decide the House control

[cinyc]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

A lot of states have "anti-gerrymandering" clauses in their constitution.

Like most of these other states, the NYS constitution specifies no objective metrics and the NYSC leans left.

It's not impossible a gerrymandered map is overturned, but it's probably have to be really egregious. I could see state legistlative maps being overturned more easily though as more things could go wrong with VRA/COIs and also there's a bit less pressure on the justices as a NYS CD case could ultimately decide the House control

These proposed 26-0, 25-1, 24-2, 23-3 and probably even 22-4 maps won't pass muster with any court, especially if the map looks like the nonsense posted here. As Torie has repatedly said, courts can be hacks, but they can't be total hacks - especially when what they do sets precedents for the future.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Always remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Especially when there are rules in the NYS constitution barring partisan Gerrymandering.

A lot of states have "anti-gerrymandering" clauses in their constitution.

Like most of these other states, the NYS constitution specifies no objective metrics and the NYSC leans left.

It's not impossible a gerrymandered map is overturned, but it's probably have to be really egregious. I could see state legistlative maps being overturned more easily though as more things could go wrong with VRA/COIs and also there's a bit less pressure on the justices as a NYS CD case could ultimately decide the House control

These proposed 26-0, 25-1, 24-2, 23-3 and probably even 22-4 maps won't pass muster with any court, especially if the map looks like the nonsense posted here. As Torie has repatedly said, courts can be hacks, but they can't be total hacks - especially when what they do sets precedents for the future.

23-3 can be done without looking absolutely ergregious but anything more ye.

From the perspective of most well educated Dems, there is a serious fear the GOP is a threat to Democracy. Therefore I have a hard time seeing left leaning SC justices overturning a map that in their eyes is a barrier to that. They won’t say it aloud but will find some reason to. They’d also prolly say in their ruling they want federal rules in redistricting and what not. They could also overturn gerrymander legislative  maps to show they’re at their core against gerrymandering.

I myself for instance don’t support gerrymandering, but in this case ah rooting for Dems to do it as a necessary evil to prevent greater tragedy. I full on condemn state lefistaltive gerrymanders and basically any other gerrymandering by either party, but this case really is beyond just gerrymandering itself inevitably .

[CookieDamage]

22-4 Dem gerry, with a surprisingly competitive district 20.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/869b13a6-88ea-4a00-b801-438573f48912

[Sol]

That map looks like a real dummymander in upstate. 24 and 25 could easily fall to Republicans even in a decent Dem year, and 24 has a real risk of re-elected Katko or developing a similarly entrenched figure given the Syracuse area's love of Republicans downballot.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

[GALeftist]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

You can make Delgado's Orange/Dutchess to Binghamton district (which seems to be the preferred strategy of shoring him up) narrowly Cuomo in 2018, but I doubt it's possible to give Tonko and Maloney both a Cuomo 2018 seat, I gave them basically every upstate blue precinct east of Utica which wasn't in Delgado's district and it still wasn't enough.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

[It’s so Joever]

For all the talk about 24 and 25, I’m honestly more concerned about 18 and 19.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

I meant for 2022.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

[kwabbit]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

[kwabbit]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

Whenever final results had to be certified in New York, I guess?
Of course there is more time to count votes for a congressional race than a presidential one.

[kwabbit]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

Whenever final results had to be certified in New York, I guess?
Of course there is more time to count votes for a congressional race than a presidential one.

I thought New York didn't actually certify its results until around June. It wouldn't be an issue during the electoral count, given that Biden had obviously won NY, but I imagine if ballot counting persisted as long as it did for NY-22, it also would've for Suffolk County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

If the county's BOE had just counted votes faster, then Biden very probably would have won the country outright.

What do you mean by this? Did they throw out some Biden votes for being counted too late after election day?

They were too slow to count the votes. By the time they ran out of time, there were still some votes left to count, that had to be left uncounted. These very, very likely would have flipped the county to Biden, considering that there was a major pro-R vote bias in New York that year.

Oh ok. What was the deadline? Tenney and Brindisi were still battling it out into February as as I recall.

Whenever final results had to be certified in New York, I guess?
Of course there is more time to count votes for a congressional race than a presidential one.

I thought New York didn't actually certify its results until around June. It wouldn't be an issue during the electoral count, given that Biden had obviously won NY, but I imagine if ballot counting persisted as long as it did for NY-22, it also would've for Suffolk County.

The new congressional term starts in early January. The Electoral College sits in early December. One month of difference makes a difference especially when the BOE takes so long to count votes.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Just for fun lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just for fun lol

Welcome to the forum!
EDIT: Lol, misread your post count. Good map, btw.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Just for fun lol

Welcome to the forum!
EDIT: Lol, misread your post count. Good map, btw.

Thank you!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated my NY gerrymander!







I slightly shored up a few districts upstate and tried to make NY-01 a tad safer for Dems. Also tried to focus on NYC a bit more to ensure it complied with VRA.

Overall, this map holds for every dataset on VRA except 2018 Gov where Cuomo's lackluster performance upstate, especially in Albany, cost him districts 19 and 20. This map should hold most cycles for Democrats, even if Republicans on average win one of the intended D seats it still does its job as a gerrymander. I tried to make the map not visually horrendous; only NY-01 and NY-02 have to look really ugly to make NY-01 a D-leaning seat, and 25 might become the new earmuffs district.

I tried to make all the upstate districts have a little bit of urban suburban, and rural areas in them to make them less reactive to potential political shifts down the road.

I pretty much ignored County Lines but did try to keep communities whole when possible.