2020 New York Redistricting

[_.]

I'm very surprised I haven't seen a single Staten Island split in this thread so far.
What do you all think about this?



Image Link

I think that firstly, it's fair to give a Republican seat in Staten Island-Borough Park, and also on the flipside as a bone to Democrats, this can help contain Republican trends and population growth in the region. I also contend that it's aesthetically a good district.

The 2012-2016 Composite has the above district as 60.2% R - 39.8% D, but its quite likely that this raised to some 70% or 80% R by the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Maybe somebody who has spare time could run the numbers and find out?

Here's the link to the district (and the rest of the map as well, which I'm preparing a post for)

[S019]

I'm very surprised I haven't seen a single Staten Island split in this thread so far.
What do you all think about this?



Image Link

I think that firstly, it's fair to give a Republican seat in Staten Island-Borough Park, and also on the flipside as a bone to Democrats, this can help contain Republican trends and population growth in the region. I also contend that it's aesthetically a good district.

The 2012-2016 Composite has the above district as 60.2% R - 39.8% D, but its quite likely that this raised to some 70% or 80% R by the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Maybe somebody who has spare time could run the numbers and find out?

Here's the link to the district (and the rest of the map as well, which I'm preparing a post for)

obvious Republican gerrymander is obvious

[Suburbia]

It would be to make Staten Islanders feel like they have something of their own, especially South Shore Staten Islanders.

If SI doesn't split up, a lot of secession talk may emerge, SI sees itself as different than NYC, despite working for the city as civil servants.

North Shore and South Shore is racially and politically divided. South Shore Staten Island sees itself as completely different than the rest of the borough and the city---they are the most conservative section of the city!!

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of New York state using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

93/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
65/100 on the Compactness Index
50/100 on County Splitting
75/100 on the Minority Representation index
35/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from a composite of the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential elections in New York state, all that is currently available.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2012/2016 U.S. Presidential Elections in New York state composite: 21D to 5R


The above map has four Black-opportunity seats, one in Queens, two in Brooklyn, and one in the Bronx. One of the Brooklyn districts is a majority-Black seat, but the other three Black districts are over 40% Black. It's getting more and more difficult to draw the seats, though, over time. A little bit of precinct trading could possibly get the Queens district and the less Black Brooklyn district above 50% Black, but soon enough, that majority will be gone as African Americans continue to leave the city.

It also has one Hispanic-majority district in the Bronx and another district with a Hispanic plurality (47.3% of Population, 45.6% of VAP).

Finally, there's one Asian opportunity seat in Queens with an Asian plurality (38.5% of Population, 39.1% Asian of VAP).

And of course you can't forget Bronz's pet district in Southern Staten Island-Borough Park.


Opinions?

[Sol]

A fair map doesn't split SI Imo.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A fair map doesn't split SI Imo.

I could see a fair-proportional map doing it, but yeah, there's no real situation where a map guided by fairness does it outside of that specific context.

[Oryxslayer]

The VEST team has finally compiled recent election results for NY, a delay mainly caused by the Empire State's lack of a central data archive. Said data will therefore soon be in Dave's, allowing us to finally analyze maps accurately.

[Lognog]

The VEST team has finally compiled recent election results for NY, a delay mainly caused by the Empire State's lack of a central data archive. Said data will therefore soon be in Dave's, allowing us to finally analyze maps accurately.

FINALLY

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The VEST team has finally compiled recent election results for NY, a delay mainly caused by the Empire State's lack of a central data archive. Said data will therefore soon be in Dave's, allowing us to finally analyze maps accurately.

Wonderful news!

[Pink Panther]

The VEST team has finally compiled recent election results for NY, a delay mainly caused by the Empire State's lack of a central data archive. Said data will therefore soon be in Dave's, allowing us to finally analyze maps accurately.

Thank God. I have been waiting for new data for 9 month at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seriously f NY for having such bad election systems even the data is hard to gather. The one thing I will say is NY prolly has some of the nicest precincts, especially upstate.

[Pink Panther]

NY FINALLY HAS UPDATED ELECTION DRA DATA!!

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/def9849f-8276-4080-960a-057bda5660bb

This my attempt so far and this is what I got

Suprisingly central NY is prolly the hardest part as geography is pretty weird

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/def9849f-8276-4080-960a-057bda5660bb

This my attempt so far and this is what I got

Suprisingly central NY is prolly the hardest part as geography is pretty weird

Tonko is from Montgomery county.

[cinyc]

Seriously f NY for having such bad election systems even the data is hard to gather. The one thing I will say is NY prolly has some of the nicest precincts, especially upstate.

Now do Long Island. Don't get me started.

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of those gerrymanders seem to screw Stefanik out of a district.  That would be so amazing on so many levels if that ends up being the map.  A power hungry loser like her getting immediately booted through redistricting would be such fresh karma.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my stab at drawing Long Island to three D districts and one R vote sink. Then expand Staten Island to Park Slope and draw three R sinks Upstate and you probably have the map and thus a 22D-4R map.


Blue: Biden 54.68-Trump 43.92
Green: Biden 57.9-Trump 40.79
Purple: Biden 41.89-Trump 56.71
Red: Biden 55.42-Trump 43.3

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1453448834143641600?s=20

[thebeloitmoderate]

North Shore staten island and a sunset park focused district would be good.
Have the South shore of SI the ethnic cop and hardcore Republican Italian, Russian, Orthodox jewish neighborhoods in south Brooklyn as well.

[Spectator]

We’re expecting a 22D-4R here, right? I drew 3 upstate R packs that gave Trump 60% of the vote, and one Long Island 57% R pack. This makes the other 3 LI seats solidly blue. Malliotakis is really easy to give a 62% Biden seat. Just give her the woke white liberals in Brooklyn. Karoo would be a goner in a Tompkins County-Cortland County-Onondaga County configuration with a tentacle to pick up Utica city. That pushes his seat to 59% Biden. The. Draw a Biden +6.5% seat for Stefanik by giving her Saratoga County and the blue parts of Rensselaer. Shore up Delgado’s seat by moving it 6 points left by picking up Binghamton. Maloney gets shored up by contracting more into Westchester County and getting a Biden +10 seat.

[kwabbit]

We’re expecting a 22D-4R here, right? I drew 3 upstate R packs that gave Trump 60% of the vote, and one Long Island 57% R pack. This makes the other 3 LI seats solidly blue. Malliotakis is really easy to give a 62% Biden seat. Just give her the woke white liberals in Brooklyn. Karoo would be a goner in a Tompkins County-Cortland County-Onondaga County configuration with a tentacle to pick up Utica city. That pushes his seat to 59% Biden. The. Draw a Biden +6.5% seat for Stefanik by giving her Saratoga County and the blue parts of Rensselaer. Shore up Delgado’s seat by moving it 6 points left by picking up Binghamton. Maloney gets shored up by contracting more into Westchester County and getting a Biden +10 seat.

I think 23-3 is the expectation more. It's risky to give Stefanik and especially Katko seats that aren't blue enough, given their personal popularity however. That's why Stefanik's seat is often used as a sink. Katko is another deal, given that he got a full 10% more than Trump in 2020. You either have to really pack Dems to make the seat blue enough where he won't just win in 2022, which might be impossible, or you could make an arm from the Western NY R sink into his neighborhood to draw him out and then package the rest of Syracuse into other districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We’re expecting a 22D-4R here, right? I drew 3 upstate R packs that gave Trump 60% of the vote, and one Long Island 57% R pack. This makes the other 3 LI seats solidly blue. Malliotakis is really easy to give a 62% Biden seat. Just give her the woke white liberals in Brooklyn. Karoo would be a goner in a Tompkins County-Cortland County-Onondaga County configuration with a tentacle to pick up Utica city. That pushes his seat to 59% Biden. The. Draw a Biden +6.5% seat for Stefanik by giving her Saratoga County and the blue parts of Rensselaer. Shore up Delgado’s seat by moving it 6 points left by picking up Binghamton. Maloney gets shored up by contracting more into Westchester County and getting a Biden +10 seat.

I think 23-3 is the expectation more. It's risky to give Stefanik and especially Katko seats that aren't blue enough, given their personal popularity however. That's why Stefanik's seat is often used as a sink. Katko is another deal, given that he got a full 10% more than Trump in 2020. You either have to really pack Dems to make the seat blue enough where he won't just win in 2022, which might be impossible, or you could make an arm from the Western NY R sink into his neighborhood to draw him out and then package the rest of Syracuse into other districts.

It doesn't help the case for cracking Stefanik's seat that it is in a corner of the state far away from major urban centers and with a pretty high R baseline.

[kwabbit]

My Upstate NY Gerrymander. The Syarcuse based seat is Biden +20, too Dem for Katko in all likehood. I moved his residence, along with Tenney's, into the Northeast Pub district. The district that replaces Stefanik's is Biden +12. The goal for the map was to create the two Upstate R packs, but the Northeast one to force Katko, Tenney, and Stefanik to run against each other. [/img]

[patzer]

This was challenging but I managed to make a 25-1 map. Every district voted for Biden by at least 10 points in 2020, so hopefully that'd be safe enough though it could in theory be vulnerable if upstate NY were to drift sharply to the right. (And Katko's district is Biden +15 just in case...)

 DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2523312-e33e-4a5f-b6da-d89198227202

All incumbent Dems except Carolyn Maloney should keep their seats. Maloney loses her seat at the expense of a new Asian-plurailty 9th (the existing 9th is renumbered as the 12th). In theory this isn't inevitable, you could keep Maloney around, but I figured a new majority-minority seat was more important. NYC itself probably has more stringy districts than is strictly necessary; I mostly just did the stringiness to try to retain all the existing majority-minority seats.

Amusing fact: none of the upstate New York Republicans are actually living in the 21st here. Stefanik's in the 20th, Tenney in the 22nd, Katko and Reed in the 24th, and Jacobs in the 26th. I'm sure some of them would move to the new 21st to fight out a primary though.

Seats without a Dem incumbent, for pickup opportunities: 1st, 2nd or 4th (whichever Rice doesn't run in), 7th or 11th (whichever Velázquez doesn't run in- I think Velázquez lives in the latter but the former has most of her old seat's territory), and upstate you have the 20th, 23rd, and 24th.

I hope they go for a 25-1 map like this, given that it's possible.

[_.]

All WEAK Republican HACK maps that UNILATERALLY DISARM to the GOP districts should not be viewed by any self-respecting New Yorker

New York deserves THIS:

Image Link

Image Link

DRA Link