2020 New York Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

This isn’t about New York redistricting, but it indicates perhaps some inflation in Szymanski’s optimism.

https://twitter.com/josephszymanski/status/1481029288367312896?s=21

Dems really need to make sure Courtney doesn’t retire this cycle.  Try and get him to wait until 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

Maloney should probably be OK given that he can raise as much money as he wants and he survived 2014 in a worse district.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1488374102566055937?s=20&t=99XrPO...

Legislative maps are up. The twitter detectives are back at work btw.

All upstate D senators got safer seats. New Ithaca, Ulster, and Dutchess Dem seats. -2 R seats through reapportionment: one in Buffalo, one in the far North - both move into NYC.

https://twitter.com/WhaleBallot/status/1488391963439104000

Does this basically lock in a super majority in the state senate?

[Mr.Phips]

What happens to Palumbo?

NY SD-01 is Biden+4.5, Previously Biden+1.2

Why didn’t they just pack the district?  Palumbo would still win the new district.

[Mr.Phips]

On this one, I think the Dems may win the battle but lose the war, because this will be a textbook example of a party gaming the system, and going lawless, and giving the finger to the voters, and that story will be told by the Pubs for a very long time.

I am skeptical of any party paying a price for bad behavior, but I agree that Dems will win the battle and lose the war over redistricting, because I don't think Congressional Democrats will ever pass an effective anti-gerrymandering law now that the IL and NY delegations will be dependent on gerrymanders. I fear this Congress was the window for change to happen and it's slammed shut for decades.

Once Texas flips, Republicans may change their view on gerrymandering, but I don't think it will change what their justices on the SC think and our government isn't set up for Republicans to partner with good government Dems to make a majority.

Because Republicans totally paid a price for all of their gerrymanders in 2011.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

They better, especially if Republicans create an 11-3 map in NC for 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

They should also be able to tie the Arizona legislature and win the house in the NH legislature in this scenario.  With that, they would be able to win the electoral college.  Dems can’t keep losing winnable state legislatures and hope to survive.

[Mr.Phips]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

I’ve long liked the idea of running NY-16 (the Bowman district) all the way up to the Hasidic parts of Rockland and Orange County in order to make NY-17 and NY-18 bluer.  Those areas would have been a perfect fit for Elliot Engel when he represented the district.

[Mr.Phips]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

I’ve long liked the idea of running NY-16 (the Bowman district) all the way up to the Hasidic parts of Rockland and Orange County in order to make NY-17 and NY-18 bluer.  Those areas would have been a perfect fit for Elliot Engel when he represented the district.

Oh yeah, but that starts to get to unreasonable.

The point of this map is to provide Dems a huge advantage without doing anything absurd

I think they could reasonably made an argument for this if Elliot Engel still represented that district.

[Mr.Phips]

It was done from 2003 to 2013, but it was pretty unreasonable then, as it jumped over the Tappan Zee rather than using the bridge.

And the map didn’t even look that ridiculous.  I would have taken it all the way up to Kiryas Joel.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know if the subtext of this is related to redistricting, but the fight over who will be chief justice of the Court of Appeals in NYS has turned vicious. The Dems in the State Senate packed th Judiciary Committee with more progressive Dems, so that it is 13D-6R, and then killed the nomination of LaSalle, the moderate Hispanic, 10-9. The Dem Senate leader won't let it go to the floor. Hochul is threatening to sue to force it to the floor. It is threatening to upset budget negotiations.

Both SCOTUS and the high courts of the states are getting ever more politicized. It is beginning to remind me of what is going on in Israel. Folks are even bothering with trying to put lipstick on the pig anymore. They want partisan hacks, and they want them now.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/democrats-reject-hochuls-pick-hector-lasalle.html

With what Republicans have done to the SCOTUS and to state supreme courts in states like Florida, Dems simply have no choice but to do this with the courts where they can.  Otherwise, they will simply be finished off.

[Mr.Phips]

I endorse ProgressiveModerate's gerrymander. I really hope an influential New York Democrat somehow comes across this thread.

I was actually thinking about writing an email to NY-Dems. Does anyone know who would be the best State Senators/State Reps to write to for the matters of redistricting?

Why would you do that? The current map is quite fair; the only actual issue with it is the absence of a Southern Brooklyn district which ofc benefits Dems and the weird shape of 24 which is basically partisanly neutral.

We should only have fair map in NY if we are also going to have them in FL, TX, OH, and NC.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Democrats passing fair maps in states that they control while Republicans pass gerrymandered maps in those that they control leads to a Republican leaning map overall and a repeat of 2012-2016.

And then Democrats won in 2018?

In any case, Democrats should also push for fair maps in Republican states by lawsuits and initiatives. It's not like the alternative is helplessness. Democrats rightly lose all credibility on the issue when they advocate for disgusting gerrymanders rather than highly fair and respectable maps.

Democrats won in 2018 partly because Republican gerrymanders in PA and FL were replaced with fair maps due to being overturned by state courts.  That is now impossible in FL due to DeSantis and Scott appointees now controlling the court.  Dems have no way of getting fair maps in NC or TX due to there being no citizen initiatives allowed and right wing state supreme courts.  Until these states get fair maps, Dems have no choice but to aggressively gerrymander where they can.

[Mr.Phips]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

[Mr.Phips]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

[Mr.Phips]

Hochul and James suing to have the legislature draw the maps. If that happens, it probably cancels out North Carolina.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2023/04/07/ag--hochul-challenge-congressional-election-district-maps

NC Republicans basically forced the Dems’ hands here. Dems have no choice but to retaliate here if they want to stay in the game in the House.

[Mr.Phips]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

Connecting Staten Island with Park Slope isn’t any more egregious than what Republicans did in Florida by cutting St Pete out of the Pinellas district.  It still looks clean.  Where Dems need to be careful is Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.  They probably need to cede two Republican seats on Long Island and make some clean changes to NY-03 to make that seat more Dem.  NY-04 is Dem enough that it can stay pretty much intact.  

The only real change that the Hudson Valley needs is for NY-16 to give up more of Westchester to NY-17 while taking in the areas of Rockland that gave Lawler his victory in 2022.  Then make some clean Dem favoring changes to NY-19.

[Mr.Phips]

In the event of a redrawing in NYC, if they're willing to have more erosity in return for grouping communities of interest together I'd suggest this.

Six districts modified (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12). 11th is anchored in Goldman's strongest areas in Manhattan and is Biden+17, so I'm sure Goldman would be happy with it; 7th regains Park Slope; the new 10th is plurality Asian.

Grouping SI with parts of Manhattan works too.  It can be done without looking erose.

[Mr.Phips]

I took a stab at a Hochulmander 2.0. A bit ugly and probably inefficient; would love to see if there's a neater way to upstate especially.

link




You could definitely also do the configuration Oryxslayer does; it just depends I guess if Goldman prefers Sunset Park and Bensonhurst or Staten Island.

Upstate, this is even uglier than the original map that was thrown out.  Dems need to use the DeSantismander strategy and keep it neat looking. 

[Mr.Phips]

Snip

Long Island could be optimized a lot more efficiently for Dems.

Yes and they almost certainly have to cede three seats upstate.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

[Mr.Phips]

How blue will the districts get? Could it end up as a dummymander given the Biden +10 polls in NY?

I think the upstate seats will be largely fine; it seems like Biden's poor polling in NY generally comes from NYC and LI. If they put Malliotakis into smtg like a Biden + 10ish seat, there's a good chance she's able to hold it and even Trump wins it in 2024.

As for Long Island, it'll be interesting to see what Dems do; geography makes gerrymandering it weird. I think the best think for Dems to do would be to keep NY-04 roughly as is, shore up NY-03 by exchanging swingy Little Neck precincts for deep blue Queens Village, and then do as much precinct exchanging between NY-01 and NY-02 to make NY-01 as favorable as possible (like Biden + 7?). NY-01 would probably still be a tossup, but NY-03 and NY-04 should lean Dem in a normal year as long as Dems don't get too lazy.

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?