2020 New York Redistricting

[wbrocks67]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

[Smash255]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

You could push Tomko's district a bit further north, to take in Schulerville, but she would just run in the remaining north county district.

[Non Swing Voter]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

In all honesty, the map posted by 306 is likely the best map you can hope for from the Dems, taking out 1 LI seat, the Staten Island seat, and eliminating an R upstate seat while somewhat strengthening the marginals. It'd be a weak 22-4 map, but that's better than the current 20-7 map (going by if Biden won the seat or not).

They can't get rid of 2 upstate seats without it looking obscene?  I am not a fan of bacon strip districts (though the GOP gets away with it to cut up places like Austin from time to time).  But I'd have to think the Dems could leave maybe 1 GOP LI district and 2 upstate districts for a 23-3 map without it looking crazy. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

I've been asking this for the past 2 years.  She needs to go just so all other evil people know there is some form of karma.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

No. It is geographically impossible to take her out. Her district is quite peninsular.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

It certainly is ridiculous, but that is not a legal argument.

There is no legal case against it that could not also be used to stop other ridiculous gerrymanders as well, such as all the districts splaying out from Austin TX to God only knows where, or the KS-01 that Republicans are apparently planning to draw that will go extend from the center of Kansas City all the way to the Colorado border.

As a side note, if Stefanik were to hypothetically get drawn out by a ridiculous district like that, IMO the best way to do it would be to draw Trump tower into her district (along with a reasonably sized chunk of neighboring territory from the middle of Manhattan). If Stefanik likes Trump so much, let her represent Trump Tower.

[Non Swing Voter]

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

It certainly is ridiculous, but that is not a legal argument.

There is no legal case against it that could not also be used to stop other ridiculous gerrymanders as well, such as all the districts splaying out from Austin TX to God only knows where, or the KS-01 that Republicans are apparently planning to draw that will go extend from the center of Kansas City all the way to the Colorado border.

As a side note, if Stefanik were to hypothetically get drawn out by a ridiculous district like that, IMO the best way to do it would be to draw Trump tower into her district (along with a reasonably sized chunk of neighboring territory from the middle of Manhattan). If Stefanik likes Trump so much, let her represent Trump Tower.

What about under NY state law? 

[Zaybay]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

In all honesty, the map posted by 306 is likely the best map you can hope for from the Dems, taking out 1 LI seat, the Staten Island seat, and eliminating an R upstate seat while somewhat strengthening the marginals. It'd be a weak 22-4 map, but that's better than the current 20-7 map (going by if Biden won the seat or not).

They can't get rid of 2 upstate seats without it looking obscene?  I am not a fan of bacon strip districts (though the GOP gets away with it to cut up places like Austin from time to time).  But I'd have to think the Dems could leave maybe 1 GOP LI district and 2 upstate districts for a 23-3 map without it looking crazy. 

(This is gonna be a long one, bare with me)

Well, the biggest issue isn't the looks for the district. Of course, if one just draws spaghetti or makes...interesting pairings and shapes, its gonna arise suspicion and possibly get challenged. The much larger issue is the geography of NY, along with the makeup of specifically upstate NY.

Before I delve in, its important to remember that congressional representatives, fundamentally, don't want to be put into dangerous positions, even if it is a perceived threat rather than an actual one. Its important to the makeup of upstate NY.

Now, to start off, Downstate NY (NYC+LI) cannot really help out the Dems here. Due to VRA restrictions, along with the simple geographic issue of trying to thread something northward through the narrow peninsula, everything south of Bowman's seat has no bearing on upstate NY's makeup. So going upwards, Bowman's seat largely has to take up much of Westchester county, with Jones' seat coming in to take the rest along with Rockland county.

Now we get to the problem reps, Delgado and Maloney. These two are currently in rather marginal seats, and would have to expand their reach due to the population lost upstate. To keep these two, you'd have to shore them up in some way. However one chooses to do so, this eats into the amount of blue territory that can be administered to other seats.

Next, we have the 4 islands, Albany, Rochester, Syracuse, and Buffalo. These 4 seats, while Democratic, aren't really that Democratic. The safest of these seats was only Clinton +19 (Buffalo), while the weakest went to her by only 4 points (Syracuse). Now, its simple to shore these guys up, no problem. But the real issue is with your query, trying to eliminate another R seat. To eliminate said R seat, the only real way to do so is to split these 4 islands between 5 seats. Now, its very possible to do so, the easiest way being to create a seat that goes from Buffalo to Rochester, but doing so creates 3 lean D/tossup seats, which would could both easily fall apart for Dems, while also angering  Morelle, Higgins, and their numerous allies.

Simply put, its just not really that feasible nor practical. Creating 3 sinks for the Rs while maximizing D gains is really the best practical solution for upstate NY.

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

It certainly is ridiculous, but that is not a legal argument.

There is no legal case against it that could not also be used to stop other ridiculous gerrymanders as well, such as all the districts splaying out from Austin TX to God only knows where, or the KS-01 that Republicans are apparently planning to draw that will go extend from the center of Kansas City all the way to the Colorado border.

As a side note, if Stefanik were to hypothetically get drawn out by a ridiculous district like that, IMO the best way to do it would be to draw Trump tower into her district (along with a reasonably sized chunk of neighboring territory from the middle of Manhattan). If Stefanik likes Trump so much, let her represent Trump Tower.

Three things:
1. I have no idea on this Kansas district you're talking about, and frankly it sounds ridiculous and infeasible.

2. There is actually a legal argument, the obvious one being a racial argument. You could also make one by looking at the state constitution, which NY specifically does have provisions.

3. In all honesty, the biggest opponents to radical gerrymanders are not going to be lawyers and voting rights groups. Its gonna be the people drawing and those affected by the map. If AOC or Maloney or whoever don't like the lines, they and their allies can make a stink and get them fixed. Hell, we're already seeing this in other states with TX (Cornyn and his allies wanting Cuellar preserved) and in KY (Kentucky Republicans including Mitch not wanting to split up KY-03) and those are just the public disputes that have flared up before the census numbers even came out.

[Tintrlvr]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

[Tekken_Guy]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

My questions about this:
-Where would Katko run here? Does he stay in the Syracuse seat or does he jump over to redder territory.
-What would Tenney do?
-Are Delgado and Maloney vulnerable with this map?
-Does Garbarino run in 1 or 2? Would Zeldin drop back down to the house now that Cuomo is out?
-Is 2 winnable for Republicans

[Tintrlvr]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

My questions about this:
-Where would Katko run here? Does he stay in the Syracuse seat or does he jump over to redder territory.
-What would Tenney do?
-Are Delgado and Maloney vulnerable with this map?
-Does Garbarino run in 1 or 2? Would Zeldin drop back down to the house now that Cuomo is out?
-Is 2 winnable for Republicans

1. Katko would probably try to run for reelection in the Syracuse-Ithaca district. While it's a D+6 seat, he did technically win by a large enough margin in 2020 that on a universal swing he could have won in a D+6 seat. I think it's pretty unlikely he would manage reelection, but it's not entirely impossible. He doesn't have any good alternatives as the other seats nearby seats are occupied.

2. Tenney would probably run in NY-20. Technically she is the only Congressperson resident there; on this map, Stefanik lives in NY-19, and she previously lived in NY-21 but has never lived in this NY-20. That said, I think Stefanik would also run in NY-20, and it would be an all-out Trumpier-than-thou battle. Tenney might be able to come through for the victory as well as her Oneida County base is entirely in the district but Stefanik's base is split across NY-19, 20 and 21.

3. NY-21 is D+1.16 compared to Delgado's current district, which is R+3. And NY-18 is D+0.27, compared to Sean Patrick Maloney's current district, which is R+1. So, are they vulnerable? Yes, D+1 and D+0 are definitely winnable for Republicans, but they are nonetheless safer than their current districts (Delgado significantly so).

4. Garbarino lives in NY-2 and would presumably run there despite NY-1 being safe, but I suppose it depends on what happens with Zeldin's gubernatorial run. Garbarino just isn't established enough where other interested Republicans in Suffolk County would step aside for him in NY-1. NY-2 is D+1.17, so still potentially winnable for Garbarino but would be highly vulnerable, especially as Garbarino is pretty anonymous. (Peter King, e.g., would have been better positioned to hang on.) It is an approach I hadn't considered to put Garbarino's home in NY-1, though, which would help the Democrats win NY-2 by ensuring there's no incumbent. I'm not sure where in Sayville Garbarino lives, though, and Sayville does run all the way to the bay.

5. See above - could be winnable. This was about as good as I could do for the Democrats without really snaky lines on Long Island and/or strips into Queens. (NY-3 is D+3.04 and NY-4 is D+3.43 so no real room to take more out of them.) I did try to match village lines in Suffolk County, and if you wanted to split up more villages (especially by freeing the Hamptons from NY-1), you could probably squeeze another 0.3-0.5 of D PVI out.

[Tintrlvr]

If you want to be stringier on Long Island, here's an alternative map. This gets NY-02 up to D+2 and NY-04 up to D+5 (rounding up). Still not huge improvement for a lot of messiness.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LI political geography is surprisingly hard to work with the way voters are distributed and the fact it’s a Long Island. The far end of the island tends to lean D, and obviously as you get closer to the city it becomes very D, but inbetween in most of Suffolk county, the D areas are like smack dab in the center creating a challenge for Ds.

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188

Thoughts on this map?

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

I still think a 22-4 is more likely. I could be wrong.

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

I still think a 22-4 is more likely. I could be wrong.

Well this one would probably end up as a 22-4 to the extent that this NY-24 shifts a few points to the right, making it easier for Katko to win reelection (though maybe also easier for him to lose a primary, in which case the district would probably flip Dem)

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188

Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester."

Chances she has to temper down her Bernie Bro rhetoric in that case? 

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

You wouldn't say that if it was Republican doing the same thing. This map is horrible and should be illegal. No party should be allowed to do this.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

You wouldn't say that if it was Republican doing the same thing. This map is horrible and should be illegal. No party should be allowed to do this.

If Republicans win back the house because Democrats choose to disarm themselves, do you think we'll ever see any meaningful redistricting reform over the next few years? Democrats seem to care about this stuff more than Republicans for the most part. This is one instance where taking a moral high ground is not worth the longer-term consequences.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

You wouldn't say that if it was Republican doing the same thing. This map is horrible and should be illegal. No party should be allowed to do this.

We need maps like this to elect Democratic representatives who will make gerrymandering illegal through federal legislation.

[patzer]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

[ProgressiveModerate]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

Honestly that's one of the best LI maps I've seen in terms opf gerrymandering while making it look clean. Like how you put that strip of blue down the middle into NY-1 and bacon-stripped the others; quite effective.

[Tintrlvr]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

Honestly that's one of the best LI maps I've seen in terms opf gerrymandering while making it look clean. Like how you put that strip of blue down the middle into NY-1 and bacon-stripped the others; quite effective.

It will never happen though because it rips apart the black seat in SE Queens. Even aside from potential VRA concerns, it wouldn't work politically in NYS. As I've said elsewhere on this thread, you could draw a 26-0 map, but it won't happen because of political considerations.

[NewYorkExpress]

AOC could solve one problem herself by running against Hochul or Schumer, or pulling a Delaney and announcing a 2024 Presidential bid early and not running for reelection in 2022.

Then it would be her district getting chopped up.