2020 New York Redistricting

[Devils30]

Dems drawing a 23-3 map, gaining in IL, MD and winning back a couple in CA is how they hold onto the House. NY gerrymander is really a must do for them and don't discount how much of the GOP it can offset if done right.

[Pink Panther]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e5d48c1-8b9a-4a0f-85c6-a506099366a5
Here's a Dem Gerrymander
Note: I didn't follow the VRA for this map.

[politicallefty]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

[Brittain33]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

Smart play is to draw one packed GOP sink and then baconstrip LI, with at least two seats crossing the NYC-LI line.

[politicallefty]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

[VAR]

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

Doing that would totally screw up the NYC area and would leave several incumbents dissatisfied. Some things are just not worth it.

[Nyvin]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

[lfromnj]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

Did you forget both of them voted for Obama in 2012 ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/244004fd-b6f8-4cc1-a909-0603b1811821
does this work as a Dem gerrymander?

[Brittain33]

I haven't played around with NY yet, but is there anything that could wipe out Republicans on Long Island? A Republican vote sink on Long Island seems like a wasted opportunity with NYC so close.

Look at the results for Suozzi and Rice in 2020 - very good, but with high Republican floors. Drawing 4 Dem districts on LI is likely a dummymander.

My thought was that there are wasted votes in NYC. Pull the Long Island districts into NYC. Use tentacles if necessary. Basically, some bacon strips going East/West. If one has to go into Manhattan, so be it.

NY-1 and NY-2 were both more than 47% Biden as is right now, and the area isn't getting better for Republicans....is that really needed?  I think maybe just draw plain districts in Long Island and let the natural trend take care of the rest.   The GOP might hold on in 2022 but later in the decade they'll be almost guaranteed to flip at some point.

NY-11 is a different story - Gerrymander the hell out of it.

I have been waiting for Long Island to “flip” Democratic since the 1990s. It always swings back and forth. I wouldn’t count on demographic destiny there.

[Torie]

Dummymander potential is higher than usual in this cycle in many states because the party coalitions are more unstable than usual. Both parties now have factions within them that really don't have much use for each other. Those elected to represent their respective herds of cats have a tough job.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/davidnir/status/1404532125823610889?s=21

If Democrats can successfully make this argument, it really broadens their options by a significant amount. This would allow them to be able to ignore significant chunks of their caucus and still have the votes to pass a map, this would definitely increase the chances of 22-4.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 26-district map of New York state.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.14%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

95/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
73/100 on the Compactness Index
55/100 on County Splitting
67/100 on the Minority Representation index
42/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from a composite of the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Election (being the only option available on DRA).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2012/2016 U.S. Presidential Elections in New York state composite: 20D to 6R


Opinions?

[Devils30]

Dems have nothing to lose doing the 23-3 map. They're at risk in upstate seats like NY-19 anyway and they lose nothing by making 1 LI red seat and 2 upstate ones. More likely it would be 22-3-1 with the 1 a Biden district that can flip if Katko lost to a MAGA challenger (which def can happen).

[Non Swing Voter]

They should do the 23-3 map for sure.

As much as most people cite "historical precedent" regarding parties out of power performing well in the midterms, much of the concrete analysis showing the GOP favored to win back the house centers around them gerrymandering all the southern states they control.  Democrats need to fight back.  Stop the insane unilateral disarmament.  If there's a way to do a 26-0 map do that.  Get rid of the non-partisan committee in California and gerrymander the hell out of that state too.

Is climate change a global crisis?  If so then act like it and prioritize that over "fair maps" that only one party does anyways.

[Tintrlvr]

With 2020 Census figures making the mapping easier for the Democrats...

Here's a 22-4 map that I'm quite proud of. Eliminates Tenney, protects all Democratic incumbents and also leaves both Katko and Garbarino in D-leaning seats while Malliotakis is DOA in a fairly safe D district. I'm not sure how you would actually do 23-3; this feels quite tight upstate already, and any tighter is definitely putting incumbents at risk. (As is, Sean Patrick Maloney is already in a very narrowly R-leaning seat, but slightly less R-leaning than his current seat.) It's true that there are some Democratic areas left in Stefanik's district, but to use them I think you'd have to put someone quite at risk.

NYC I largely left as least-change other than ensuring that the Staten Island-based district was Democratic enough, although I did make some tweaks in spots that I think may be prioritized by the legislature, such as trying to shore up Carolyn Maloney in the primary. Essentially the entire lost district comes from Upstate.




https://davesredistricting.org/join/072b68bb-579d-4317-a705-d8140f1d0656

[Brittain33]

The argument is that Buffalo and Rochester together can support 3 seats for Dems. Is that possible with your map? Your Buffalo district looks pretty blue.

[Tintrlvr]

The argument is that Buffalo and Rochester together can support 3 seats for Dems. Is that possible with your map? Your Buffalo district looks pretty blue.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk. And this is not at all a part of the state where a D+2 seat can be considered a likely win for the Democrats; the state Republicans relied on exactly such seats to hold the State Senate for such a long time, and Republicans have a particular history of overperforming Presidential figures in the Buffalo and Rochester areas.

It might have been easier when we only had estimates and it was less clear the degree to which the entire lost seat would come from Upstate.

If you were willing to connect Ithaca westward, perhaps you could do it. But I think Ithaca is needed in other districts; either in Delgado's district, as I've done, or perhaps you could put it in Katko's district to ensure he loses and run Delgado up to Plattsburgh instead. (I'm working on that alternative right now.)

Edit: Here's the map with a Syracuse-Ithaca district for Katko that sends Delgado's district up to the Canadian border. Not sure how Delgado would feel about having a district covering such far-flung territories (and it's about a point less Democratic than my previous edition, though still noticeably more Democratic than his current district), but this definitely ensures Katko loses.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

[Brittain33]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

a) The Albany district can also be unpacked at least a bit.
b) There are some Dem votes in some of the R districts that are being wasted and could be extracted (with sufficiently squiggly lines, of course!). For example, in Oswego, Plattsburgh, Elmira, Geneva areas etc.
c) There is a lot of variation in how heavily D (and in some cases R) parts of the "border areas" between NYC suburbs and "upstate" around Westchester/Orange counties up as far north as Poughkeepsie or so. If you use squiggly lines to make sure that the more Dem areas in this border area are drawn in with upstate districts to the north, while the more GOP areas in that border area are drawn in with NYC districts to the south, you can free up a good amount of extra Dem votes for the upstate districts. As one example, this may mean that your Ithaca-Binghamptom-Kingston district doesn't need all of those (especially with the Albany district also unpacked a bit).


Hopefully DRA can get 2020 election data added for New York sometime soon... It is kinda depressing looking and seeing that there is 2020 census data, and then wanting to draw a map with that, but then there is only 2012-2016 (and even worse, 2012-2016 average) political data. How many votes Romney got is of distinctly decaying relevance for drawing districts for the next decade.....

[Tintrlvr]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Not wrong. But the weight of those other priorities has become less and less over time, as politics has become more nationalized.

We will probably get an 8-0 map in Maryland, for example, and Kansas Republicans are planning to absurdly slice up the Kansas City area. These are not things that would have been done in the 1990s or the 2000s.

In another 10 years time, if the United States still exists by then and has elections (an open question), and if Democrats don't wake up and pass some elections reform legislation while they still actually have the chance, then we are on course to end up in a world where there are 26-0 maps in 2030, and similarly absurd maps in other states.

[Non Swing Voter]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

[Zaybay]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

In all honesty, the map posted by 306 is likely the best map you can hope for from the Dems, taking out 1 LI seat, the Staten Island seat, and eliminating an R upstate seat while somewhat strengthening the marginals. It'd be a weak 22-4 map, but that's better than the current 20-7 map (going by if Biden won the seat or not).