2020 New York Redistricting

[Progressive Pessimist]

Expect a redraw now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/hochul-chief-judge.html

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

yes, Wilson is a strong signal here that the redistricting fight is a serious challenge - reminder he said the Hochulmander was legal and fair in his dissent.

However, this gets to the second point, which is that the Hochulmander is not coming back, even if the legislature can remap again. The 2022 elections shook up the players in congressional NY politics so one could expect different priorities and goals. For example:

- SPM is gone and him the desire to make NY-18 drawn to his specifications. But there is now a republican in NY-17. so one might theorize that the lower valley districts around the 2022 results in the regions seats. Also gone is Jones's outreach and curious appeal among the Hasidic towns in the region.

- Brandon Williams is not John Katko, so not as much resources need to devoted to Syracuse as before. Also the original map seemed to be designed to bring Brindisi back but he didn't bite.

- Claudia Tenney showed she could hop districts and still get elected, so there's not much point trying to force upstate R v R primaries in the safe seats.

- There are three additional GOP representatives in districts drawn to reelect democrats on the Hochulmander, not to mention two more who were targeted by that map but got more reasonable seats under the remap. One can imagine Dems prioritizing the first group more than before and perhaps the second a bit less, especially if former players like Suozzi want to come back (even though in his case the battle is already won).

- Goldman effectively replacing Maloney means that there are now different desires coming out of the Manhattan region's districts, and would certainly have cascading effects on things like what the Hochulmander's NY-10.

- NEW: Suozzi is all but running for his old seats vs Santos. He would probably prefer a district that more resembles the 2020 version than the new one which heads towards the southern Republican-leaning part of Oyster Bay, even though he's been elected county-wide before.

- In general, the increased scrutiny placed on new lines implemented during mid-decade remaps means tentacles and visual peculiarities are not appreciated, even though biased partisanship is achievable through other means.

I agree with you here. I am jaded enough to want a New York gerrymander, but for the reasons you laid out, it absolutely should not be a re-do of the 2022 proposal and to decrease the chances of backfiring really consider taking the current incumbents into account and how best to either protect or oust them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think theoretically, NY Dems can claim a direct connection from Staten Island to Lower Manhattan via the Staten Island Ferry, which sees very high ridership (~60k daily). I also wonder if they could then use the 4th Avenue Subway (~300k daily riders) to justify a Park Slope-Sunset Park-Borrough Park-Bensonhurst type of seat for Dan Goldman.

[Oryxslayer]

Do you think theoretically, NY Dems can claim a direct connection from Staten Island to Lower Manhattan via the Staten Island Ferry, which sees very high ridership (~60k daily). I also wonder if they could then use the 4th Avenue Subway (~300k daily riders) to justify a Park Slope-Sunset Park-Borrough Park-Bensonhurst type of seat for Dan Goldman.

This unintentionally gets to the 4th corner of NYC politics/redistricting, a corner not as important in other states. We have D vs R, PoC vs White, Incumbents vs Wider Goals, but also Radical Politics vs Mainstream Dem Politics. That final one manifests itself in the 2.5 party system found opposite Manhattan with large numbers of voters who don't want politics as usual and can easily be whipped up for a primary challenge. For simplicities sake, lets refer to these voters as the "Working Families Block" since that is a clear defined label and not a nebulous term as say 'Progressive.'

Right now, almost everyone who has districts that surround the Working Families electorate do not want them whatsoever. These areas are high turnout and that is a problem if your base is say a minority group. You can actually see districts 8 and 9 withdrawing from this region on both of the congressional plans from last year, since both incumbents desperately wanted the White precincts to not come from these neighborhoods. Clarke almost learned that the hard way. Similarly, freshman Goldman did not do that well in the Park Slope/Brooklyn parts of his seat in 2022. Obviously this is all relative since he was just king of the ashes in such a convoluted primary, but its clear that his base was Mainstream Liberals mostly found in Manhattan outside the ethnic enclaves. Finally, AOC (of Queens) would love to take in the Working Families voters but her seat geographically is locked to the Bronx and Corona through minority access.

Therefore, Dems would love to get a new seat in NYC - through say a hypothetical congressional expansion - and make it AOCs Working Families pack, and the Bronx has an open Hispanic seat. Everyone goes home happy. But that's not gonna happen. The next best thing is then to do the Manhattan - Staten link as you bring up. This frees up one of 3 White seats in the city - currently wasted from the Dem perspective - and allows NY11 to become the new Brooklyn Working Families district. The population numbers actually come out near perfect, Goldman gets protected, everyone is happy. So if Dems thought that was practical, or possible, they probably would have tried it just with Nadler's NY10 last time.

Which brings us to South Brooklyn. Fundamentally, there are the transitioning parts with a growing Chinese population, the parts sill dominated by Eastern Europeans, and the Hasidic parts. Both the Hochulmander and the master map mistreated the Chinese section though the masters was better, which is one of the reasons why I looked at it as a possible COI. However, the rest of south Brooklyn is extremely desired by the other incumbents since it all but ensures there won't be primaries against them - Goldman isn't getting any. This is fundamentally also why Dems want to throw as much of Park Slope and beyond into NY11 - it means it isn't in their districts. Plus there's the bonus that a more marginal seat may produce different voter behaviors and Working Families neighborhoods would choose an electable candidate over an ideological one.

And the last point - NY07. I have not mentioned it so far because it is the exception. Velázquez seems to not fear a challenge and is good with taking on more when compared to last decades map, perhaps as long as Hispanics retain the plurality. Of course this means that the district all but drawn to elect Julia Salazar when Velázquez retires later in the decade, but I suspect everyone has already made their peace with that outcome.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think theoretically, NY Dems can claim a direct connection from Staten Island to Lower Manhattan via the Staten Island Ferry, which sees very high ridership (~60k daily). I also wonder if they could then use the 4th Avenue Subway (~300k daily riders) to justify a Park Slope-Sunset Park-Borrough Park-Bensonhurst type of seat for Dan Goldman.

This unintentionally gets to the 4th corner of NYC politics/redistricting, a corner not as important in other areas. We have D vs R, PoC vs White, Incumbents vs Wider Goals, but also Radical Politics vs Mainstream Dem Politics. That final one manifests itself in the 2.5 party system found opposite Manhattan with large numbers of voters who don't want politics as usual and can easily be whipped up for a primary challenge. For simplicities sake, lets refer to these voters as the "Working Families Block" since that is a clear defined label and not a nebulous term as Progressive.

Right now, almost everyone who has districts that surround the Working Families electorate do not want them whatsoever. These areas are high turnout and that is a problem if your base is say a minority group. You can actually see districts 8 and 9 withdrawing from this region on both of the congressional plans from last year, since both incumbents desperately wanted the White precincts to not come from these neighborhoods. Similarly, freshman Goldman did not do that well in the Park Slope/Brooklyn parts of his seat in 2022. Obviously this is all relative since he was just king of the ashes in such a convoluted primary, but its clear that his base was Mainstream Liberals mostly found in Manhattan outside the ethnic enclaves. Finally, AOC (of Queens) would absolutley love to take in the Working Families voters but her seat geographically is locked to the Bronx and Corona through minority access.

Fundamentally therefore, Dems would love to get a new seat in NYC - through say a hypothetical congressional expansion - and make it AOCs Working Families pack, and the Bronx has an open Hispanic seat. Everyone goes home happy. But thats not gonna happen. The next best thing is then to do the Manhattan - Staten link as you bring up. This frees up one of 3 White seats in the city - currently wasted from the Dem perspective - and allows NY11 to become the new Brooklyn Working Families district. The population numbers actually come out near perfect, Goldman gets protected, everyone is happy. So if Dems thought that was practical, or possible, they probably would have tried it just with Nadler's NY10 last time.

Which brings us to South Brooklyn. Fundamentally, there are the transitioning parts with a growing Chinese population, the parts sill dominated by Eastern Europeans, and the Hasidic parts. Fundamentally both the Hochulmander and the master map mistreated the Chinese section though the masters was better, which is one of the reasons why I looked at it as a possible COI. However, the rest of south Brooklyn is extremely desired by the other incumbents since it all but ensures there won't be primaries against them - Goldman isn't getting any. This is fundamentally also why Dems want to throw as much of Park Slope and beyond into NY11 - it means it isn't in their districts. Plus there's the bonus that a more marginal seat may produce different voter behaviors and Working Families neighborhoods would choose an electable candidate over an ideological one.

And the last point - NY07. I have not mentioned it so far because it is the exception. Velázquez seems to not fear a challenge and is good with taking on more when compared to last decades map, perhaps as long as Hispanics retain the plurality. Of course this means that the district all but drawn to elect Julia Salazar when Velázquez retires later in the decade, but I suspect everyone has already made their peace with that outcome.

I tried drawing a breif sketch that kinda matches this. NY-11 and NY-12 are the "white sinks", 10 is the new Asian/Working Class Brooklyn seat, and everything else stays simillar. I tried to split the burden of white liberals in Williamsburg and Dumbo between 7, 9, and 10, and made 9 higher BVAP than 8 to compensate and keep both seats functional.

I feel like there's an important divide between the black communities NY-08 and NY-09 should take in as well. NY-09 here takes in the black communities that are more directly connected to the city, with a lot of commuters, whereas 8's black communities are less dense and removed from public transit; more sort of isolated in their own bubble if that makes sense.

The only bad thing about this map would be NY-07 (Valezquez) becomes plurality white and prolly takes in too many white liberals for Valezquez's liking, but some reconfiguring could make it plurality Hispanic. As you state, in an ideal world for NY Dems, there'd be one more seat that sinks up Park Slope-DUMBO-Williamsburg-LIC-Astoria into a liberal white sink making everyone else happier, but that's just not the reality we have.

Also here, 3 reaches down into Hollis and part of Jamacia, pushing the seat a few points left to Biden + 12.

[Sol]

I tried drawing a breif sketch that kinda matches this. NY-11 and NY-12 are the "white sinks", 10 is the new Asian/Working Class Brooklyn seat, and everything else stays simillar. I tried to split the burden of white liberals in Williamsburg and Dumbo between 7, 9, and 10, and made 9 higher BVAP than 8 to compensate and keep both seats functional.

I feel like there's an important divide between the black communities NY-08 and NY-09 should take in as well. NY-09 here takes in the black communities that are more directly connected to the city, with a lot of commuters, whereas 8's black communities are less dense and removed from public transit; more sort of isolated in their own bubble if that makes sense.

The only bad thing about this map would be NY-07 (Valezquez) becomes plurality white and prolly takes in too many white liberals for Valezquez's liking, but some reconfiguring could make it plurality Hispanic. As you state, in an ideal world for NY Dems, there'd be one more seat that sinks up Park Slope-DUMBO-Williamsburg-LIC-Astoria into a liberal white sink making everyone else happier, but that's just not the reality we have.

Also here, 3 reaches down into Hollis and part of Jamacia, pushing the seat a few points left to Biden + 12.

Really nice map!

One thing worth considering--do we think NY Dems might want to put Chinatown in that 10th district? They've done something similar before with the old 7th.

[wbrocks67]

Wait did the Hochulmander really include NY-11 being a Biden district? Seeing Malitotakis go down would be fun.

[Spectator]

Wait did the Hochulmander really include NY-11 being a Biden district? Seeing Malitotakis go down would be fun.

Yes but they probably need to draw it a bit bluer than the original Hochulmander if they want to ensure a 2022 environment doesn’t keep her in.

[Sol]

Do we think Goldman is okay with essentially getting a Staten Island district?

[Oryxslayer]

Do we think Goldman is okay with essentially getting a Staten Island district?

The going theory is that given who supported him in 2022, and his alignment, Goldman would prefer anything that isn't part of the Working Families base areas also long as he maintains enough of Manhattan. Be it it Chinese regions, Staten island, or minority block areas if they were made available. Maybe he will surprise us though and want to keep Park Slope.

[windjammer]

Redistricting is going to happen again?

[Epaminondas]

Meeting convened on Thursday:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NYS_IRC/status/1647977212728037377

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649096021174284288?s=20

Here's the new assembly maps that will go before the chamber for a vote in the future. The the important corollary in tweet is probably what to keep an eye one, cause the case that could undo the court map congressionally also could render this a dead letter.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649096021174284288?s=20

Here's the new assembly maps that will go before the chamber for a vote in the future. The the important corollary in tweet is probably what to keep an eye one, cause the case that could undo the court map congressionally also could render this a dead letter.

It's pretty funny, though, because this commission map is more or less exactly the same as the current Dem-drawn map. Stakes are incredibly low here, but I'll be looking to this case to signal how Halligan and Troutman will rule on the congressional and state Senate case.

[GALeftist]

Sorry for the double post but:

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649141122453700609

The New York Court of Appeals has dismissed plaintiffs' appeal of Nichols v. Hochul. This means that the legislature will draw the new Assembly districts rather than a special master, at least unless they get struck down again. Judge Halligan took no part. Pretty clear signal imo that Dems will get to try redistricting the congressional and State Senate maps again. Less clear on whether the Court will allow a gerrymander.

EDIT: Whoops, slightly misread; appeal was dismissed "upon the ground that the order appealed from
does not finally determine the proceeding within the meaning of the Constitution," so possibly not the end of the story?

[Oryxslayer]

The minimal-changes assembly map which really only changed that tentacle district in the middle of upstate is approved.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1650615031581626375?s=20

[Epaminondas]

Great news, but when is the glorious 22-4 congressional map coming out?
The one that will flip the house and save democracy in 2024?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everything will be moot if SCOTUS decides in Moore v Harper that state courts can't overrule state legislatures when it comes to redistricting.

[Devils30]

Everything will be moot if SCOTUS decides in Moore v Harper that state courts can't overrule state legislatures when it comes to redistricting.

The NC decision is going to render this moot and it will be dismissed by SCOTUS.

[GALeftist]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658

No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

[Badger]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658

No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Ugh. This smells like something Republicans in Texas or North Carolina would do, but at this point it's got to be pure fighting fire with fire. Republicans are reasonably and unapologetically gerrymandering the hell out of states to protect their Auntie majoritarian power base against increasingly bad generational and demographic tides all across the country. I want to see some equivalent of making political redistricting largely unconstitutional, but since Kennedy retired for the decision was brought before him and Garland was cock blocked for his nomination, McConnell essentially stole that issue from being decided favorably by The Supremes anytime for forthcoming decades.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658

No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Still I think these types of power grabs are really messed up. You need to be assertive but not become the bully yourself.

[Death of a Salesman]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658
No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Ugh. This smells like something Republicans in Texas or North Carolina would do, but at this point it's got to be pure fighting fire with fire. Republicans are reasonably and unapologetically gerrymandering the hell out of states to protect their Auntie majoritarian power base against increasingly bad generational and demographic tides all across the country. I want to see some equivalent of making political redistricting largely unconstitutional, but since Kennedy retired for the decision was brought before him and Garland was cock blocked for his nomination, McConnell essentially stole that issue from being decided favorably by The Supremes anytime for forthcoming decades.

New York had a fair map last year and Democrats would have won the house even if they had narrowly lost the popular vote. Pleading for a gerrymander in NY is clearly anti-democracy, you’re just a partisan hack.

[GALeftist]

I actually think it's not really that big of a deal. It seems pretty silly that a judge elected by like 10,000 people in some random rural county gets to decide election law for the whole state. More to the point, though, the philosophy that liberals are working under here is that unilateral disarmament only incentivizes gerrymandering by the opposing side. Through that lens, making a NY gerrymander is inherently more fair because it maximizes the chances of reform if the GOP doesn't think they can have their cake and eat it too by overturning NY's gerrymander and leaving Texas's intact.

[Stuart98]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658
No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Surely this violates equal protection, right?

[MaxQue]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658
No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

Surely this violates equal protection, right?

No. This is actually common (these are called venue rules).