2020 New York Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

Hochul and James suing to have the legislature draw the maps. If that happens, it probably cancels out North Carolina.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2023/04/07/ag--hochul-challenge-congressional-election-district-maps

NC Republicans basically forced the Dems’ hands here. Dems have no choice but to retaliate here if they want to stay in the game in the House.

[MillennialModerate]

Odds of passing?

[Oryxslayer]

Odds of passing?

Unknown.

If we go by what happened last time, then it's going to come down to who sits the unfilled chief justice's or justice's (if hochul just appoints a current member to chief) chair.

[Dan the Roman]

Odds of passing?

There were two rulings.

5-2 against the maps
4-3 for a special master. 3 Judges argued the legislature MUST be given the chance to try and remedy the defects before taking away the power.

With a new CJ appointment there is probably a majority for letting the legislature redraw but not for letting it just do whatever it wants. They will likely need to be a bit more discrete than last time. But given 2022 it is quite likely they will be more cautious, perhaps shooting for 6 GOP seats not 4.

[Torie]

I am skeptical this lawsuit will fly, at least for the moment. My guess is Hochul is doing this performatively, since she is on such thin ice with the progressive wing of her party, thwarting it at every turn on almost everything. You go girl.

In the meantime, the 4th vote is an acting judge, who does not seem in the vanguard of the revolution himself, and I think would be reluctant to reverse a prior opinion in such a capacity.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2023/02/28/acting-chief-judge-sounds-off-on-lasalle-rejection

The Court of Appeals has been described as paralyzed.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/03/theres-total-paralysis-nys-chief-judge-vacancy-courts-are-stagnant/384159/

It is possible that the lawsuit is a signal that Hochul will nominate out of the next pool submitted to her, a bold progressive, who will go for a redraw, as part of a modus vivendi between the governor and the progressives.

Speculation on top of speculation.

[GALeftist]

So here’s how I understand it:

There was a 5-2 decision to strike down the legislatures maps and a 4-3 decision to appoint a special master to draw new ones. My strong prior is that Hochul is planning to nominate a progressive to replace DiFiore, in the majority in both decisions. That leaves Troutman, who was the one vote who swung previously. I really do wish that people would quit saying that the legislature needs to make the maps prettier; I’m sure it wouldn’t hurt, but that wasn’t the issue with Troutman last time, in fact she explicitly refused to call the maps a partisan gerrymander. What she did say was that the legislature didn’t follow the correct procedure in this case. Last time, the commission deadlocked and sent two maps to the legislature; I can’t even remember if those maps received votes. According to the constitution, the legislature is supposed to vote down two rounds of maps before making their own. I imagine that this time the legislature will be extremely careful to exactly follow the correct procedure.

Imo the motion Hochul and James filed is basically a slam dunk. Constitutionally the legislature is supposed to have a chance to redraw if maps are struck down and they weren’t given one.

[MillennialModerate]

Odds of passing?

There were two rulings.

5-2 against the maps
4-3 for a special master. 3 Judges argued the legislature MUST be given the chance to try and remedy the defects before taking away the power.

With a new CJ appointment there is probably a majority for letting the legislature redraw but not for letting it just do whatever it wants. They will likely need to be a bit more discrete than last time. But given 2022 it is quite likely they will be more cautious, perhaps shooting for 6 GOP seats not 4.

So if my counting is correct NC would end up swinging +2 to the GOP if you do it as a NY<>NC swap

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

[Mr.Phips]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

[Spectator]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

NY-11 into southern Manhattan? Oh my.

[Spectator]

If they're going to go for aggressive, why not just go for something like this?



Lawler, D'Esposito, Malliotakis, Santos, LaLota, and Williams are all in Biden +15 or more seats.

Stefanik in a Biden +6 seat, and Molinaro/Ryan combined in a Biden +8 seat.

Almost all should flip in presidential turnout.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

Albany County is literally hole. It’s hard to draw something much cleaner without sacrificing partisanship.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

Albany County is literally hole. It’s hard to draw something much cleaner without sacrificing partisanship.

IDK why you have chosen to sink Ithaca, but that probably helps out through cascading effects.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

Albany County is literally hole. It’s hard to draw something much cleaner without sacrificing partisanship.

IDK why you have chosen to sink Ithaca, but that probably helps out through cascading effects.

There's really 2 options for a clean 22-4 NY map that has 3 Republican leanijng upstate seats. The other option makes Stefanik's seat into a swingy R leaning seat, and instead makes the Ithaca seat lean D. You can't easily do both. I posted that other map a few pages ago in this thread.

[Spectator]

Expect a redraw now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/hochul-chief-judge.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

[Spectator]

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

No need for four GOP seats upstate. Upstate is relatively stable enough to allow 3 R sinks. Depends if Democrats want to gun for Stefanik’s seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Expect a redraw now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/hochul-chief-judge.html

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

Yes, Wilson is a strong signal here that the redistricting fight is a serious challenge - reminder he said the Hochulmander was legal and fair in his dissent.

However, this gets to the second point, which is that the Hochulmander is not coming back, even if the legislature can remap again. The 2022 elections shook up the players in congressional NY politics so one could expect different priorities and goals. For example:

- SPM is gone and him the desire to make NY-18 drawn to his specifications. But there is now a republican in NY-17. so one might theorize that the lower valley districts  would be drawn around the geography of the 2022 result's in the region's seats. Also gone is Jones's outreach and curious appeal among the Hasidic towns in the region.

- Brandon Williams is not John Katko, so not as much resources need to be devoted to Syracuse as before. Also the original map seemed to be designed to bring Brindisi back but he didn't bite.

- Claudia Tenney showed she could hop districts and still get elected, so there's not much point trying to force upstate R v R primaries in the safe seats.

- There are three additional GOP representatives in districts drawn to reelect democrats on the Hochulmander, not to mention two more who were targeted by that map but got more reasonable seats under the remap. One can imagine Dems prioritizing the first group more than before and perhaps the second a bit less, especially if former players like Suozzi want to come back (even though in his case the battle is already won).

- Goldman effectively replacing Maloney means that there are now different desires coming out of the Manhattan region's districts, and would certainly have cascading effects on things like what the Hochulmander's NY-10.

- NEW: Suozzi is all but running for his old seats vs Santos. He would probably prefer a district that more resembles the 2020 version than the new one which heads towards the southern Republican-leaning part of Oyster Bay, even though he's been elected county-wide before.

- In general, the increased scrutiny placed on new lines implemented during mid-decade remaps means tentacles and visual peculiarities are not appreciated, even though biased partisanship is achievable through other means.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really wish NY Dems could make a pac with NC and OH Rs to just not redistrict and keep the status quo, but that'd never happen.

I believe Dems have a duty to redistrict congressionally if Rs go after those 2 states to balance the national picture, but it's still a loss for Democracy on net than all 3 states having relatively fair maps.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1



EDIT: I should add to my previous post, and well this one that Jeffries is now going to have significant sway with how his district is ordered. So it both can't really change from the general form it took since 2010 and implemented in both map iterations, and it can't include any of the progressive primary challenger areas northwest of Prospect Park that were in the 2010 version. Reminder Yvette Clarke almost got knocked out in 2018 cause of turnout disparities, the incumbents are very aware over what shouldn't be in their seats. He would seemingly prefer having as much of the South Brooklyn Whites as possible to be the counterweight to the AA precents and avoid packing, since the majority don't vote in Dem primaries and those that do would vote for him. In that way, I gave him not just all of Russian areas at the southern side close to Coney Island. 

[Gass3268]

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

Any guess on how this map would have played out in 2022?

[Oryxslayer]

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

Any guess on how this map would have played out in 2022?

People who have the data have done the math and calculated that the Hochulmander in 2022 would hold in Upstate but fall in downstate, so everything I will say next flows from there.

The long Island seats are iffy. The republican margins of victory in NY03 and NY04 are both just barely   larger than the raw 2020 margin increase from the court map in both cases However, these increase mainly come from dropping areas that one could describe as high turnout with varying partisanship, whereas they gain areas that in 2022 would be noticeably lower turnout but had less swing voters or high turnout Republicans. Schumer did win the current NY-04, so maybe we split these two between the parties? NY-01  stays GOP.

Beyond Long Island though we get into the serious realm of What Ifs. Malliotakis overperformed by more that this district's base partisanship, but that's arguably was because she was left alone. Would this still have occurred in a district with less swing voter and more lockstep liberal democrats? Dem's certainly would have invested since it was Max Rose attempting a comeback.

Similarly, Upstate. Would Katko have retired if there wasn't Ithaca in his seat? Would Delgado have sought a way out if he knew his district would become safer? if he doesn't, does Ryan even enter the picture? What about the game of musical chairs that occurred the Westchester districts that indirectly led to NY-17 flipping.

This all leads to my wider point, that this map couldn't have been implemented in 2022 because it is created in reaction to 2022. Manhattan could never have been drawn like this until the UWS and UES got paired together and on of their congressmen lost. Suddenly Nadler has a following in the UWS and may not want to drop it in favor of regions less similar to liberal Manhattan. Incumbents, especially SPM, dictated the Westchester/North suburbs seats, and they are all gone, and a new incumbent would hypothetically want a Ulster seat. Would Velázquez accept a seat without Red Hook until it was forcibly removed? Nor would there be an incentive to make the Nassau seats bluer like there is now.

[Sol]

Is there a way to do this where NY-03 is the GOP vote sink in Long Island?

[Spectator]

Is there a way to do this where NY-03 is the GOP vote sink in Long Island?

Suffolk County is too big and relatively red (compared to Nassau) for that.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a way to do this where NY-03 is the GOP vote sink in Long Island?

I'm sure if you were to get squiggly, but that not likely right now. Basically, most of the Long Island GOP strongholds today are either along the southern shoreline east of Freeport, or Smithtown in the northeast. Dem do better in the more diverse parts: adjacent to NYC with AA  spillover in the south and Chinese in the north, and the urban parts like Freeport, Islip, and and Babylon. thats an issue for the NY03 line, since it's natural core of of the North Hempstead towns are too democratic.

There is another line which is you push NY-04 into Jamaica, rotate things around in NYC, and then push other NYC seats like NY-06 out into NY03 turf of Nassau. That would free up space in NY-03 to shift its base. However, Meeks would never allow that.