2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just want to be clear, outside of congressional gerrymanders, I oppose Democrats gerrymandering anything else. In a state legistlature, only one side controls, so you don't have to "cancel out" someone elses gerrymander

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Yeah, when they manage to a lose a seat that Biden won by 15 points, that's indicative of a far deeper problem for NY Democrats that a gerrymander by itself would not be able to solve.

Dems losing a Biden + 15 seat is irrelevant, infact my proposed map keeps that seat exactly the same. My map still tries to keep several competative seats to keep the map reactive, just the overall slant is strongly towards Ds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Democrats passing fair maps in states that they control while Republicans pass gerrymandered maps in those that they control leads to a Republican leaning map overall and a repeat of 2012-2016.

I endorse ProgressiveModerate's gerrymander. I really hope an influential New York Democrat somehow comes across this thread.

I was actually thinking about writing an email to NY-Dems. Does anyone know who would be the best State Senators/State Reps to write to for the matters of redistricting?

Maybe Andrea Stewart Cousins just by virtue of her being the floor leader and thus controlling what legislation gets to come to the floor.

I can try her, but given she's the leader, I worry I'll just get a generic email back cause her staff prolly have to deal with so much. Worth a try ig.

NY doesn't have a State Senator whos like "unofficially" in charge of redistricting the way Joan Huffman is in Texas?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The whole argument for FPTP is that it represents specific communities, not political parties. Now, personally I support PR, but attempting to engineer maps for proportional representation doesn't actually do proportional representation well (over a decade it can actually do worse than fair maps) and mutilates communities. We're all better off the more that districts rep communities well.

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Democrats passing fair maps in states that they control while Republicans pass gerrymandered maps in those that they control leads to a Republican leaning map overall and a repeat of 2012-2016.

And then Democrats won in 2018?

In any case, Democrats should also push for fair maps in Republican states by lawsuits and initiatives. It's not like the alternative is helplessness. Democrats rightly lose all credibility on the issue when they advocate for disgusting gerrymanders rather than highly fair and respectable maps.

Democrats won in 2018 partly because Republican gerrymanders in PA and FL were replaced with fair maps due to being overturned by state courts.  That is now impossible in FL due to DeSantis and Scott appointees now controlling the court.  Dems have no way of getting fair maps in NC or TX due to there being no citizen initiatives allowed and right wing state supreme courts.  Until these states get fair maps, Dems have no choice but to aggressively gerrymander where they can.

Ok, you're just opposed to Democracy then.

In states like GA and TX have become anti-democracies in terms of legislature with median State Senate seats are literally 15 points to the right of the state.

I do agree with your point that overtime, a gerrymander at the start of the decade may begin to fail, but just waiting till the end of the decade and hoping things "balance out" isn't always going to work out.

Also the map I showed does not violate communities; each individual district is reasonable and clear communities aren't split down the middle other than for VRA purposes (NYC largely follows the Special Master's current map). The map is just lopsided in Ds favor.

Compare that to Texas, where redistricting has been a 0-sum game for Republicans and communities of interests are completely disrespected for maximal partisan advantage. Dems could theoretically try to do that style of gerrymander in NY, but that's not what I'm proposing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Generally, I am a person who believes you shouldn't fight fire with fire and take the higher road when you can. The issue with redistricting is that it directly affects policy and if you're "locked out" of the US House or a specific State Legistlature, there isn't always a lot that you can do. What are the "high road" alternatives on redistricting? If there's no ballot initiative, the legistlature is strongly gerrymandered, and the state court is stacked full of partisans what can you do? Do you just "accept" nationally lopsided maps that give one side a huge advantage over the other?

Democrats don't need to be aggressive but be assertive in their national redistricting strategy to keep the playing field level.

[Torie]

Pub Senate minority leader to Hochul: sue baby sue.

https://nystateofpolitics.com/state-of-politics/new-york/politics/2023/01/21/ortt-says-hochul-should-sue-to-get-chief-judge-nomination-to-a-floor-vote?oref=csny_firstread_nl

[cinyc]

State constitutions matter.

[MaxQue]

State constitutions matter.

They do, but the state constitution doesn't say what Hochul claims it says. That question was settled by the Supreme Court in the early 90's.

[cinyc]

State constitutions matter.

They do, but the state constitution doesn't say what Hochul claims it says. That question was settled by the Supreme Court in the early 90's.

I was talking about the specific language in the NY Constitution about redistricting, not Hochul's claims about a floor vote, one way or the other.

[Mr.Phips]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

[Torie]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

[Mr.Phips]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Agree, but it is important to note NY Dems first map was objectively worse than DeSantis’s and violated the NY constitution in more ways than DeSantis’s map violated Florida.

Rmbr, a huge part of the reason the map was overturned was procedural in NY, only a smart part had to do with the fact it was gerrymandered.

[Torie]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

The county has to be split.  Are you sure that the Florida law prevents retrogression? If it does, that might run afoul of SCOTUS law. I think FL-05 as drawn should be struck, but don't agree with your remedy, so I guess I am in the middle of the sandwich here.
 

[ProgressiveModerate]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

The county has to be split.  Are you sure that the Florida law prevents retrogression? If it does, that might run afoul of SCOTUS law. I think FL-05 as drawn should be struck, but don't agree with your remedy, so I guess I am in the middle of the sandwich here.
 

What's sneaky about the DeSantis map is that FL-05 and FL-10 have the same black % as reasonable alternatives, but are both less functional for different reasons.

FL-05 is less functional because it takes in deep deep red Nassau making the district outright R leaning; even if black voters control the D primary winning a GE isn't realistic most years.

FL-10 is less functional because it takes in bluer precincts of white liberals and hispanics in Orlando, hence making black voters a smaller chunk of the D primary, even though the district is safe D.

I actually think one fairly strong argument that could be made against the DeSantis map is the map is hypocritical against itself given that DeSantis didn't condense FL-20 to just Ft. Lauderdale and instead kept the pretty "unnatural" configuration. Unlike FL-05 and FL-10 though, reconfiguring FL-20 doesn't really affect the overall partisanship of the map, but if it did, I guarentee he would've done it.

Overall, the Florida redistricting language is pretty vauge and leaves a lot of room open to subjectivity as there's no definitive "bar" set forwards that'd differentiate a compliant map from an illegal map. Ds should rlly try and get a commission on the ballot, but ik FL R's will fight tooth and nail to try to stop it, and for a variety of reasons, probably have a greater chance at successfully blocking it than even OH Rs.

[Torie]

The VRA may be in play with FL-20. Excluding Nassau County makes the map more erose, and without it, FL-05 is still swing. I don't think there is a viable road connection to Nassau to the west without going through Duval County, so I don't think including  Nassau is egregious. Adding the western portion of the county to the south is far more problematical.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The VRA may be in play with FL-20. Excluding Nassau County makes the map more erose, and without it, FL-05 is still swing. I don't think there is a viable road connection to Nassau to the west without going through Duval County, so I don't think including  Nassau is egregious. Adding the western portion of the county to the south is far more problematical.

Nassau County is geographically trapped, so I think the best thing to do is pair it with Duval and only Duval, which would probably result in a Trump-Biden seat Ds would’ve lost in 2022 but have a good chance of carrying on fuller black turnout.

I think everyone at this point agrees the old FL-05 was kinda absurd, and a district completely nested within Duval itself is fine but then either requires splitting the black community and/or making a weird “wrap around” district.

[Torie]

Here is the state of play over what appears to be the impending Hochul lawsuit over the refusal of the State Senate majority leader to bring the nomination to the floor. What the remedy is, if the State Senate is in fact held to be in breach of the State Constitution, is unclear. (Perhaps the state senate members could lodge their vote with the court, and decide the matter that way.) If the Court of Appeals splits 3-3 on the matter, the lower Appellate Court decision would stand, so perhaps Hochul’s hot shot attorney might venue shop.

“The Senate’s specific role in the nomination process is detailed in Section 68(4)(e) of the Judiciary Law: “The senate shall confirm or reject such appointment no later than thirty days after receipt of the nomination from the governor. A vacancy shall be deemed to occur upon the rejection by the senate of such an appointment.”

‘The key question is whether a rejection by the Senate Judiciary Committee counts as ‘rejection by the senate.’ ”

Fun stuff.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/01/can-kathy-hochul-really-sue-ny-senate-over-hector-lasalle/382040/

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

[Tintrlvr]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

The county has to be split.  Are you sure that the Florida law prevents retrogression? If it does, that might run afoul of SCOTUS law. I think FL-05 as drawn should be struck, but don't agree with your remedy, so I guess I am in the middle of the sandwich here.
  

What's sneaky about the DeSantis map is that FL-05 and FL-10 have the same black % as reasonable alternatives, but are both less functional for different reasons.

FL-05 is less functional because it takes in deep deep red Nassau making the district outright R leaning; even if black voters control the D primary winning a GE isn't realistic most years.

FL-10 is less functional because it takes in bluer precincts of white liberals and hispanics in Orlando, hence making black voters a smaller chunk of the D primary, even though the district is safe D.

I actually think one fairly strong argument that could be made against the DeSantis map is the map is hypocritical against itself given that DeSantis didn't condense FL-20 to just Ft. Lauderdale and instead kept the pretty "unnatural" configuration. Unlike FL-05 and FL-10 though, reconfiguring FL-20 doesn't really affect the overall partisanship of the map, but if it did, I guarentee he would've done it.

Overall, the Florida redistricting language is pretty vauge and leaves a lot of room open to subjectivity as there's no definitive "bar" set forwards that'd differentiate a compliant map from an illegal map. Ds should rlly try and get a commission on the ballot, but ik FL R's will fight tooth and nail to try to stop it, and for a variety of reasons, probably have a greater chance at successfully blocking it than even OH Rs.

I don't think there's anything weird about a "wrap-around" as long as it's all the same metro area, which is the case here. Suburbs on either side of a city have more in common with each other than they do with the urban core in between, and similarly rural areas on either side of an urban area have more in common with each other than with the urban and suburban areas in between.

[GALeftist]

Don't want to derail the thread but I really don't get why everyone is always obsessing over how sneaky the DeSantis map is or whatever. Do you guys seriously think that you couldn't convince a layperson that a map that gives Republicans >70% of the seats with <60% of the votes is gerrymandered, especially with that atrocious FL-14? It's not as bad as it could be but it's hardly some work of art.

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

Well it was already defeated in committee. Why would D leadership bring it to the floor unless forced? That would inherently weaken the power of the committee which is not in their interest. Plus, it could be the case that a court order to hold a floor vote could make more Democrats turn against LaSalle.

[Torie]

Don't want to derail the thread but I really don't get why everyone is always obsessing over how sneaky the DeSantis map is or whatever. Do you guys seriously think that you couldn't convince a layperson that a map that gives Republicans >70% of the seats with <60% of the votes is gerrymandered, especially with that atrocious FL-14? It's not as bad as it could be but it's hardly some work of art.

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

Well it was already defeated in committee. Why would D leadership bring it to the floor unless forced? That would inherently weaken the power of the committee which is not in their interest. Plus, it could be the case that a court order to hold a floor vote could make more Democrats turn against LaSalle.

To avoid embarrassing litigation and possible humiliation. If you got the votes, flash them baby. I suspect at the moment that the Dem leadership have not run the traps successfully enough to have them locked down. It should make an interesting case. In that sense, bring it, if only to entertain the Torie fossil.

Maybe there is a psychological need to lash out because Hochul won't raise taxes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don't want to derail the thread but I really don't get why everyone is always obsessing over how sneaky the DeSantis map is or whatever. Do you guys seriously think that you couldn't convince a layperson that a map that gives Republicans >70% of the seats with <60% of the votes is gerrymandered, especially with that atrocious FL-14? It's not as bad as it could be but it's hardly some work of art.

If you gave them the numbers, ye, but visually the map is compact; even FL-14 looks fine cause it's basically a rectangle with the Bay carved out of it.

Also if you overlay precinct results, there isn't the clear partisan sorting there is in such as the Texas map.

Now tbf, DeSantis's map isn't completely maximal. A truly maximal map would've shored up FL-05, FL-15, and FL-27 and a bit more, make FL-09 actually competative, and reconfigure FL-22 and FL-23 so one of them is competative. All of those would require one to start to do absurd things though.

I like to think of DeSantis's map like a commission map that made every possible decision in favor of Republicans. Nothing individually is that unreasonable, but overall it creates a really lopsided results, especially when there are better alternatives that'd produce a fairer map in terms of partisanship.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

Well it was already defeated in committee. Why would D leadership bring it to the floor unless forced? That would inherently weaken the power of the committee which is not in their interest. Plus, it could be the case that a court order to hold a floor vote could make more Democrats turn against LaSalle.

To avoid embarrassing litigation and possible humiliation. If you got the votes, flash them baby. I suspect at the moment that the Dem leadership have not run the traps successfully enough to have them locked down. It should make an interesting case. In that sense, bring it, if only to entertain the Torie fossil.

Maybe there is a psychological need to lash out because Hochul won't raise taxes.
[/quote]

They prolly have the votes, unless the committee Dems are unusually liberal/anti-Hochul? Even if all the Rs voted to confirm LaSalle, Ds could still afford 10 defections.

[CookieDamage]

The whole argument for FPTP is that it represents specific communities, not political parties. Now, personally I support PR, but attempting to engineer maps for proportional representation doesn't actually do proportional representation well (over a decade it can actually do worse than fair maps) and mutilates communities. We're all better off the more that districts rep communities well.

Pretty disgusting perspective tbh.

Gerrymandering is always wrong with no exceptions. Democrats should try to actually win in New York rather than rig the game in their favor.

Democrats passing fair maps in states that they control while Republicans pass gerrymandered maps in those that they control leads to a Republican leaning map overall and a repeat of 2012-2016.

And then Democrats won in 2018?

In any case, Democrats should also push for fair maps in Republican states by lawsuits and initiatives. It's not like the alternative is helplessness. Democrats rightly lose all credibility on the issue when they advocate for disgusting gerrymanders rather than highly fair and respectable maps.

Democrats won in 2018 partly because Republican gerrymanders in PA and FL were replaced with fair maps due to being overturned by state courts.  That is now impossible in FL due to DeSantis and Scott appointees now controlling the court.  Dems have no way of getting fair maps in NC or TX due to there being no citizen initiatives allowed and right wing state supreme courts.  Until these states get fair maps, Dems have no choice but to aggressively gerrymander where they can.

Ok, you're just opposed to Democracy then.

If Democrats were as puritanically against being on even terrain and morally righteous as Sol they would be a permanent minority and the GOP would rule with supermajorities until 2200.

[Spectator]

Hochul and James suing to have the legislature draw the maps. If that happens, it probably cancels out North Carolina.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2023/04/07/ag--hochul-challenge-congressional-election-district-maps