2020 New York Redistricting

[Devils30]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

[Pollster]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

They better, especially if Republicans create an 11-3 map in NC for 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

[Mr.Phips]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

They should also be able to tie the Arizona legislature and win the house in the NH legislature in this scenario.  With that, they would be able to win the electoral college.  Dems can’t keep losing winnable state legislatures and hope to survive.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

They should also be able to tie the Arizona legislature and win the house in the NH legislature in this scenario.  With that, they would be able to win the electoral college.  Dems can’t keep losing winnable state legislatures and hope to survive.

True. If it does come to this hopefully more attention than ever can be given to state legislature races, and maybe American voters will take note.

It's still such an asinine idea though. Why does having a simple popular vote-one person; one vote system in this country have to be so difficult?

[Devils30]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

Nothing prevents commissions to draw state legislative maps. Or courts to invalidate state legislative gerrymanders even if they can’t touch congressional.

[Pollster]

The thing about state legislative districts is that in the overwhelming majority of states (critically not all, but most) they contain much small populations than Congressional districts - often much smaller - and flipping them requires persuading far fewer voters. There are many places where the same investment needed to make a Trump +5 Congressional seat a tossup could flip a Trump +10 state legislative seat relatively easily (assuming candidate quality/a competent campaign).

[cinyc]

Redistricting isn’t over in NY State. Recall that the NYS Assembly maps were struck down and are to be redrawn for 2024.

Today, NYS Supreme Court Justice Laurence Love has ordered that the Independent Redistricting Commission be reconsitituted to redraw these maps:

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1575546495797178368?s=21&t=KAaAhBvz0Rmz9...

This seems to contradict both the Court of Appeals’ logic in the Harkenrider decision and a recent attempt to reconvene the IRC to do a mid-decade redraw of the Congressional and State Senate maps for 2024 that was heard in State Supreme Court in Albany.

Remember - the NYS Supreme Court is actually the lowest court. This decision will likely be appealed.

NYC is also redistricting its 51 city council districts, but that’s another story for another day.

[Torie]

Redistricting isn’t over in NY State. Recall that the NYS Assembly maps were struck down and are to be redrawn for 2024.

Today, NYS Supreme Court Justice Laurence Love has ordered that the Independent Redistricting Commission be reconsitituted to redraw these maps:

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1575546495797178368?s=21&t=KAaAhBvz0Rmz9...
This seems to contradict both the Court of Appeals’ logic in the Harkenrider decision and a recent attempt to reconvene the IRC to do a mid-decade redraw of the Congressional and State Senate maps for 2024 that was heard in State Supreme Court in Albany.

Remember - the NYS Supreme Court is actually the lowest court. This decision will likely be appealed.

NYC is also redistricting its 51 city council districts, but that’s another story for another day.

But the queen bee of the judicial system has or is resigning, so now the Court of Appeals might have second thoughts as to its previous decision.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Now that LaSalle seems to be dead, the chances of a redraw happening and being successful have gone up a bit.

Honestly, if Ds get the chance to redraw, they should just do a Florida style redraw that's clean but sneaky, and while a few of the D seats may be topline competative, should generally vote to the left of the nation.

However, given how bad Ds did in 2022 in NY, I wonder if they'll be more cautious in a redraw and do extra weird things to try to shore up the likes of NY-04 which would suck.

My recommendations if Ds wanted to do a slight redraw without being too greedy:

Rotate NY-11 so it follows up the Gowanus Expressway into Park Slope, which could easily make it like Biden + 10 or 12. NY-08 and NY-09 would pretty easily be able to pick up the remainder of South Brooklyn. If one really wanted to, they could prolly get away with connecting it directly to lower Manhattan via the Staten Island Ferry, which would push it to Biden + 17 as a max

Reconfigure NY-01 and NY-02 so it's a east-west config rather than north-south (like in Cerva's original map). This would make NY-02 a Biden + 6ish district they could win with a more serious campaign while NY-01 becomes like Trump + 6.

Condense Albany to shed Saratoga and give Montgomery, Schoharie, and Rensselaer to NY-21. This could theoretically endanger Stefanik in the right circumstances, especially given her 2022 performance wasn't that great

Unpack NY-26 a bit to make NY-24 more competative.

Some precinct exchanges here and there.

After that, you really gotta do things like outright crack Albany or annihilate Westchester County to get a much better map for Ds. However, a map like this should have 22 seats that pretty reliably vote to the left of the nation, perhaps with the exception of 2022, which is a pretty good deal for Ds

[ProgressiveModerate]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

[Spectator]

You can draw a Trump +14 Long Island pack. In a 2022 type of environment, those Biden +12 seats could still fall, but they'd have a fighting chance of withstanding it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You can draw a Trump +14 Long Island pack. In a 2022 type of environment, those Biden +12 seats could still fall, but they'd have a fighting chance of withstanding it.

Yes you "can", but it'd be quite nasty; this is meant to be a "clean" gerrymander that generally abides to decency but makes a lot of D favorable decisions. I could also outright eliminate another upstate R seat if I wanted to, but it'd be really nasty

I think the issue is that going forwards, a 2022 situation where NY just happens to have a super red national environment compared to the national results just isn't going to happen. In general, at least 20 of these seats should vote to the left of the NPV, with 22 being the most likely.

Under these lines, Ds would've probably narrowly carried NY-11, NY-17, and NY-22 in 2022 but Rs still win 4 and 19 (the lines are the same). NY-03 would've been very close but Santos prolly eeks it out.

[Tintrlvr]

You can draw a Trump +14 Long Island pack. In a 2022 type of environment, those Biden +12 seats could still fall, but they'd have a fighting chance of withstanding it.

Yes you "can", but it'd be quite nasty; this is meant to be a "clean" gerrymander that generally abides to decency but makes a lot of D favorable decisions. I could also outright eliminate another upstate R seat if I wanted to, but it'd be really nasty

I think the issue is that going forwards, a 2022 situation where NY just happens to have a super red national environment compared to the national results just isn't going to happen. In general, at least 20 of these seats should vote to the left of the NPV, with 22 being the most likely.

Under these lines, Ds would've probably narrowly carried NY-11, NY-17, and NY-22 in 2022 but Rs still win 4 and 19 (the lines are the same). NY-03 would've been very close but Santos prolly eeks it out.

I do think you could do a better and still fairly clean-looking R-pack on Long Island than what is done here. Smithtown should be in any R-pack, e.g., and you should try to liberate some of the heavily minority areas in Islip.

Upstate I don't understand why Buffalo is drawn the way it is, which seems to make the Buffalo-based seat unnecessarily at risk compared to drawing the district more tightly around Buffalo and its immediate suburbs. The Buffalo area has a history of huge swings to the Republicans, so even a Biden+12 or so seat isn't ideal if you can draw one better.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You can draw a Trump +14 Long Island pack. In a 2022 type of environment, those Biden +12 seats could still fall, but they'd have a fighting chance of withstanding it.

Yes you "can", but it'd be quite nasty; this is meant to be a "clean" gerrymander that generally abides to decency but makes a lot of D favorable decisions. I could also outright eliminate another upstate R seat if I wanted to, but it'd be really nasty

I think the issue is that going forwards, a 2022 situation where NY just happens to have a super red national environment compared to the national results just isn't going to happen. In general, at least 20 of these seats should vote to the left of the NPV, with 22 being the most likely.

Under these lines, Ds would've probably narrowly carried NY-11, NY-17, and NY-22 in 2022 but Rs still win 4 and 19 (the lines are the same). NY-03 would've been very close but Santos prolly eeks it out.

I do think you could do a better and still fairly clean-looking R-pack on Long Island than what is done here. Smithtown should be in any R-pack, e.g., and you should try to liberate some of the heavily minority areas in Islip.

Upstate I don't understand why Buffalo is drawn the way it is, which seems to make the Buffalo-based seat unnecessarily at risk compared to drawing the district more tightly around Buffalo and its immediate suburbs.

The issue with Ds on Suffolks County is D vote netting precincts are kinda scattered all around the County; you can't get the Hamptons, Huntington, and Minority parts of Islip and Lindenhurst all in the same district without doing something insane. Given that minority Islip tend to have the most unrealible turnout and the worst general trends for Ds, I decided to exclude it.

It's one of those things at face value should be easy, but practically drawing anything more than Biden + 5 nested within Suffolk is a challenge

As for Buffalo yeah I thought I'd be able to make NY-24 more competative than it ended up being and decided it's not worth it trying to "unpack" NY-26.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This NY-02 is technically like a point bluer than my NY-01 on 2020 Pres, but practically this NY-02 has  a lot of unfavorable shifts for Ds and too large of the Dem base is in very unreliable and shrinking heavily minority communities. I'd much rather have the "Hamptons" NY-01 as shown in the map above.

[Mr.Phips]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

I’ve long liked the idea of running NY-16 (the Bowman district) all the way up to the Hasidic parts of Rockland and Orange County in order to make NY-17 and NY-18 bluer.  Those areas would have been a perfect fit for Elliot Engel when he represented the district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

I’ve long liked the idea of running NY-16 (the Bowman district) all the way up to the Hasidic parts of Rockland and Orange County in order to make NY-17 and NY-18 bluer.  Those areas would have been a perfect fit for Elliot Engel when he represented the district.

Oh yeah, but that starts to get to unreasonable.

The point of this map is to provide Dems a huge advantage without doing anything absurd

[Mr.Phips]

Such as:





(Shaded by 2020 Pres)

Still generally keeps with the spirit of the original map but optimizes things a bit more for Ds.

Hard to make the Central Valley config much better for Ds since there's not more votes to grab unless you grab some of Albany and/or split Westchester. Under this map, SPM would've likely narrowly held onto NY-17 in 2022, so NY-19 would be the only seat in real danger for Ds in a normal year.

Honestly I'm not sure if "unpacking" Buffalo is rlly worth it given it still didn't shift NY-24 to the left enough to make it very competitive, and if anything starts to put NY-26 at risk.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eead22a8-f811-4f37-9827-5f52fa3a0832

I’ve long liked the idea of running NY-16 (the Bowman district) all the way up to the Hasidic parts of Rockland and Orange County in order to make NY-17 and NY-18 bluer.  Those areas would have been a perfect fit for Elliot Engel when he represented the district.

Oh yeah, but that starts to get to unreasonable.

The point of this map is to provide Dems a huge advantage without doing anything absurd

I think they could reasonably made an argument for this if Elliot Engel still represented that district.