2020 New York Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

The two Monroe districts both stay inside the county and it covers as much of the metro as they can, it seem pretty basic to me.  Sure, splitting Rochester isn't perfectly ideal but unless the goal is drawing the districts to maximize Republican's chances in one of the two, it's not really that major.

[Sol]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

If a vote sink best follows communities of interest, minority voter rights, and jursidictional boundaries, than yeah, it's what should be drawn. That stuff is more important that trying to hit an always moving target of partisan fairness which is going to be unstable, especially within decades and can end up creating unfair dummymanders.

[lfromnj]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

If a vote sink best follows communities of interest, minority voter rights, and jursidictional boundaries, than yeah, it's what should be drawn. That stuff is more important that trying to hit an always moving target of partisan fairness which is going to be unstable, especially within decades and can end up creating unfair dummymanders.

It's not even like this would create partisan unfairness. The 2nd Rochester senate seat would still be a Biden seat after all, just a competitive one. It's actually funny because his explanation is nearly the exact same thing Ron DeSantis uses for Jacksonville. The 2 districts cover the metro  and use a geographic divider of the river. Obviously there isn't even really a defense for the Albany split.  What's interesting is Long Island and Downstate seem fine but once you start reaching upstate Cervas does pull these moves. Unlike PA its inexplicable from a partisan fairness perspective either.

[Nyvin]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

If a vote sink best follows communities of interest, minority voter rights, and jursidictional boundaries, than yeah, it's what should be drawn. That stuff is more important that trying to hit an always moving target of partisan fairness which is going to be unstable, especially within decades and can end up creating unfair dummymanders.

Okay, fine, then apply the same logic to keeping rural communities together in the same districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

If a vote sink best follows communities of interest, minority voter rights, and jursidictional boundaries, than yeah, it's what should be drawn. That stuff is more important that trying to hit an always moving target of partisan fairness which is going to be unstable, especially within decades and can end up creating unfair dummymanders.

Okay, fine, then apply the same logic to keeping rural communities together in the same districts.

Yeah at least on the congressional level this map has no true rural seats except maybe NY-24. Infact on this map there are no truly Uber safe R seats.

I think people tend to like urban “packs” voters cause usually urban cores have higher minority populations than the area around it and is notably denser whereas a rural district needs some metro to “ground” it

[Nyvin]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

Why exactly is drawing a Biden+50 seat in Monroe County "fair"?   It really sounds like your just upset the Special Master didn't go around creating Dem vote sinks everywhere he could.

If a vote sink best follows communities of interest, minority voter rights, and jursidictional boundaries, than yeah, it's what should be drawn. That stuff is more important that trying to hit an always moving target of partisan fairness which is going to be unstable, especially within decades and can end up creating unfair dummymanders.

It's not even like this would create partisan unfairness. The 2nd Rochester senate seat would still be a Biden seat after all, just a competitive one. It's actually funny because his explanation is nearly the exact same thing Ron DeSantis uses for Jacksonville. The 2 districts cover the metro  and use a geographic divider of the river. Obviously there isn't even really a defense for the Albany split.  What's interesting is Long Island and Downstate seem fine but once you start reaching upstate Cervas does pull these moves. Unlike PA its inexplicable from a partisan fairness perspective either.

Clay and St Johns Counties are not part of the Jacksonville metro.  I guess Nassau is passable since there's literally nowhere for it to go.

[GALeftist]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

[Oryxslayer]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

There were rumors yesterday that he was already taking on staff. But progressive local politicians are also looking at the sear, so another primary looks to be in the works.

[Brittain33]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

[lfromnj]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs? I don't think what Cervas did was racist, I am just calling it out as the fact he did the exact same thing Ron DeSantis did. A clean gerrymander based along a natural river boundary to favor his political party.

FYI DeSantis did not split the black community in Duval County, what he did was split the white moderates on the East Bank from the Black community. Still a gerrymander but just important to note.

Also still waiting for the defense of the Albany split.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

There were rumors yesterday that he was already taking on staff. But progressive local politicians are also looking at the sear, so another primary looks to be in the works.

This man has a public humiliation kink I swear

[DrScholl]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs? I don't think what Cervas did was racist, I am just calling it out as the fact he did the exact same thing Ron DeSantis did. A clean gerrymander based along a natural river boundary to favor his political party.

FYI DeSantis did not split the black community in Duval County, what he did was split the white moderates on the East Bank from the Black community. Still a gerrymander but just important to note.

Also still waiting for the defense of the Albany split.

He diluted the Black voted by putting Black areas in with White areas that are not remotely communities of interests and split Duval County into two districts when one district can fit completely within the county.

[lfromnj]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs? I don't think what Cervas did was racist, I am just calling it out as the fact he did the exact same thing Ron DeSantis did. A clean gerrymander based along a natural river boundary to favor his political party.

FYI DeSantis did not split the black community in Duval County, what he did was split the white moderates on the East Bank from the Black community. Still a gerrymander but just important to note.

Also still waiting for the defense of the Albany split.

He diluted the Black voted by putting Black areas in with White areas that are not remotely communities of interests and split Duval County into two districts when one district can fit completely within the county.

Wow and Rochester is smaller than a district while Albany County is exactly a district. Sure there are sometimes arguments to split exact districts such as Cobb/DeKalb GA for example. but the manner in which it was done was simply to unpack it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

[MaxQue]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs? I don't think what Cervas did was racist, I am just calling it out as the fact he did the exact same thing Ron DeSantis did. A clean gerrymander based along a natural river boundary to favor his political party.

FYI DeSantis did not split the black community in Duval County, what he did was split the white moderates on the East Bank from the Black community. Still a gerrymander but just important to note.

Also still waiting for the defense of the Albany split.

He diluted the Black voted by putting Black areas in with White areas that are not remotely communities of interests and split Duval County into two districts when one district can fit completely within the county.

Wow and Rochester is smaller than a district while Albany County is exactly a district. Sure there are sometimes arguments to split exact districts such as Cobb/DeKalb GA for example. but the manner in which it was done was simply to unpack it.

True, but Albany isn't floating in the air. Is putting Albany together worth drawing non-sensical rural seats with bad road connections?

[Tintrlvr]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

I think he has little chance in our primary, which will be dominated by the ultra-progressive wing of the party centered in brownstone Brooklyn. He only came close to beating Maloney previously because Maloney was unpopular with the progressives, not because he himself had any particular appeal. He's not nearly left enough for this district when there's no incumbent to run against.

The mention of de Blasio... He would be a fool to run. He's not popular even in this district, and he would do quite poorly. An ally who is less polarizing like Maya Wiley is much more likely.

[Tintrlvr]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.

But there *is* no semi-competitive seat even when you keep the black community together. He didn't eliminate a competitive seat at all. The eastern seat would still be Biden+20-ish even if it were bleached completely. Go ahead and draw it and see. You're complaining about nothing.

[DrScholl]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs? I don't think what Cervas did was racist, I am just calling it out as the fact he did the exact same thing Ron DeSantis did. A clean gerrymander based along a natural river boundary to favor his political party.

FYI DeSantis did not split the black community in Duval County, what he did was split the white moderates on the East Bank from the Black community. Still a gerrymander but just important to note.

Also still waiting for the defense of the Albany split.

He diluted the Black voted by putting Black areas in with White areas that are not remotely communities of interests and split Duval County into two districts when one district can fit completely within the county.

Wow and Rochester is smaller than a district while Albany County is exactly a district. Sure there are sometimes arguments to split exact districts such as Cobb/DeKalb GA for example. but the manner in which it was done was simply to unpack it.

You can't draw a single district that is solely within either of those counties. In Duval County, Florida you can do that and that would be preferable under the fair district amendment.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

I think he has little chance in our primary, which will be dominated by the ultra-progressive wing of the party centered in brownstone Brooklyn. He only came close to beating Maloney previously because Maloney was unpopular with the progressives, not because he himself had any particular appeal. He's not nearly left enough for this district when there's no incumbent to run against.

The mention of de Blasio... He would be a fool to run. He's not popular even in this district, and he would do quite poorly. An ally who is less polarizing like Maya Wiley is much more likely.

Who do you think could win it then? I think Carlos Menchaca is just outside in the 11th, and I don’t know where exactly Wiley lives Brooklyn but she’d be another possibility if we’re looking to failed mayor candidates. Maybe Yuh-Line Niou could run, though she’s from Manhattan

[Brittain33]

Splitting a community in a way that both halves still get representation—the candidate of their choice wins and is elected—is not the same as splitting a community to make each half weak enough they can be outvoted by the other party in both districts (DeSantis).

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation and not in order to provide Republicans a tool to minimize the number of representatives African-American voters can help elect. The latter was an unintended effect, not the sole and best use of the law.

And what about the candidate of the suburbs?

I think some people genuinely forget that the VRA was written to help African-Americans get representation

[rhg2052]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

I think he has little chance in our primary, which will be dominated by the ultra-progressive wing of the party centered in brownstone Brooklyn. He only came close to beating Maloney previously because Maloney was unpopular with the progressives, not because he himself had any particular appeal. He's not nearly left enough for this district when there's no incumbent to run against.

The mention of de Blasio... He would be a fool to run. He's not popular even in this district, and he would do quite poorly. An ally who is less polarizing like Maya Wiley is much more likely.

Who do you think could win it then? I think Carlos Menchaca is just outside in the 11th, and I don’t know where exactly Wiley lives Brooklyn but she’d be another possibility if we’re looking to failed mayor candidates. Maybe Yuh-Line Niou could run, though she’s from Manhattan

Maya Wiley could actually be a very interesting choice for this district, she definitely built up a ton of name recognition in the mayoral primary, she either lives here or just over the line in NY-9, and aside from Borough Park, she either placed first or second behind Garcia (or Yang in Chinatown) in most precincts in the district last year.

Also, I doubt she would run for this for several reasons, but Kathryn Garcia could definitely win here. She's a lifelong Park Sloper, came very close to winning the mayoral election, and did extremely well in most of the major neighborhoods in the district (again, aside from Borough Park). She does seem like more of an administrator than a legislator though, and currently has a major administrative job in the state government, so I don't think it's likely she runs.

[Torie]

I have always had a low opinion of Wasserman:

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1527032878567084032

 We got the Italianx VRA district argument folx.(In all seriousness its just asking for the current north shore/south shore configuration of Long Island.)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1527032878567084032

 We got the Italianx VRA district argument folx.(In all seriousness its just asking for the current north shore/south shore configuration of Long Island.)

Italianx are a racial minority.

[Tintrlvr]

On a serious note Suraj Patel could run for the 10th and possibly win

I think he has little chance in our primary, which will be dominated by the ultra-progressive wing of the party centered in brownstone Brooklyn. He only came close to beating Maloney previously because Maloney was unpopular with the progressives, not because he himself had any particular appeal. He's not nearly left enough for this district when there's no incumbent to run against.

The mention of de Blasio... He would be a fool to run. He's not popular even in this district, and he would do quite poorly. An ally who is less polarizing like Maya Wiley is much more likely.

Who do you think could win it then? I think Carlos Menchaca is just outside in the 11th, and I don’t know where exactly Wiley lives Brooklyn but she’d be another possibility if we’re looking to failed mayor candidates. Maybe Yuh-Line Niou could run, though she’s from Manhattan

Maya Wiley could actually be a very interesting choice for this district, she definitely built up a ton of name recognition in the mayoral primary, she either lives here or just over the line in NY-9, and aside from Borough Park, she either placed first or second behind Garcia (or Yang in Chinatown) in most precincts in the district last year.

Also, I doubt she would run for this for several reasons, but Kathryn Garcia could definitely win here. She's a lifelong Park Sloper, came very close to winning the mayoral election, and did extremely well in most of the major neighborhoods in the district (again, aside from Borough Park). She does seem like more of an administrator than a legislator though, and currently has a major administrative job in the state government, so I don't think it's likely she runs.

I don't think Garcia is remotely interested in Congress.

In addition to Brad Hoylman, who has already announced, possible major candidates who currently or formerly held significant offices (City Council, State Assembly, State Senate or a citywide position) include Maya Wiley, Brad Lander and Stephen Levin from Brooklyn, and Margaret Chin, Yuh-Line Niou and Brian Kavanagh from Manhattan. They each have their own bases and interesting aspects.

There are other possibilities (I thought of Deborah Glick, e.g., but at 71 she's a bit old to run for Congress for the first time), but I think these are the six most likely. Of course it could also be a political neophyte or someone not from an elected office.

Wiley

Positives: Progressive, appealing to voters in this district that she is a minority, strong allies who can help smooth over a primary
Negatives: Not certain if she lives in the district, most known for losing a citywide primary, not a particularly good campaigner

Lander

Positives: Very progressive (could flank Wiley from the left), elected citywide so has a reasonably high profile outside of his old City Council district
Negatives: Maybe too progressive, could unite voters outside of his old Council district and core constituency against him (e.g., he would lose the Orthodox vote, the Chinatown vote and the ultra-wealthy Manhattan vote), could be criticized for job-hopping since he just got elected last year to a citywide position

Levin

Positives: Has a strong history of alliances with the Orthodox Jewish community and could secure their primary votes without turning off more left-wing voters, also from a political family with Congressional connections so might get more national party support
Negatives: Although he lives in the district, most of his old Council district (Williamsburg and Greenpoint) is not in this district

Chin

Positives: Strong Chinatown base, would have machine backing, might be able to secure the Orthodox Jewish vote against a more progressive candidate
Negatives: Little-known in Brooklyn

Niou

Positives: Chinatown base but also with progressive bona-fides so may have broader appeal in progressive Brooklyn than Chin
Negatives: Also little-known in Brooklyn

Kavanagh

Positives: Could lock down the white vote in Manhattan, and also Chinatown if there isn't a Chinese candidate in the race, has strong institutional machine backing
Negatives: Also little-known in Brooklyn, not known as a compelling campaigner, geographic base competes with Hoylman

Edit: Removed Levin because I learned that he now lives in Greenpoint and outside the district, although when he started his career he lived in Boerum Hill. Still possible he could run but seems much less likely. As a replacement maybe Robert Carroll, although he seems pretty anonymous and not especially active, but honestly I know less about him because he's the only one I've never been represented by (he's from pretty far into the Brooklyn part of the seat).

Edit II: Found an article on the topic that discusses some of these potential candidate (Niou and Carroll in particular) and also de Blasio. De Blasio was also "running" for NY-11 before he wasn't so I would treat that with a large dose of skepticism:

https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/5/17/23103027/hoylman-nadler-house-seat