2020 New York Redistricting

[Torie]

Here are the stats using PVI as Cervas did (a metric that has its pluses and minuses). I tend to believe that I had a key influence in maximizing the number of competitive districts, however you define that, which is tough. But given the toxic environment for Dems due to issues concerning inflation, higher income educated centrists who are liberal on social issues, may come home to the GOP if they nominate Katko rather than Tenney types, in which event if that happened this map could be Gotterdamerung for the Dems in 2022. The devil is in the details, and already some political apple carts have been upset. That is another thing I think I had some influence perhaps in putting the care and feeding of incumbents on ignore.

Yes, the Asians and Orthodox Jews were screwed in south Brooklyn, but I think I understand why. I will flesh this out more in my letter to the Court, and ask Cervas for further explanation.
I admire him and expect that he will provide it.

[Torie]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

i have not reviewed the State Senate map. Do the Dems have a reasonably safe two thirds majority in the State Senate from his map? That is where the rubber meets the road. How many competitive seats did he draw? Did he make a claim as to that with the State Senate map? Is the SS map put up on the Court site?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

i have not reviewed the State Senate map. Do the Dems have a reasonably safe two thirds majority in the State Senate from his map? That is where the rubber meets the road. How many competitive seats did he draw? Did he make a claim as to that with the State Senate map? Is the SS map put up on the Court site?

Dems majority is relatively safe and supermajority generally seems lean D though srs could very well break it in 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

i have not reviewed the State Senate map. Do the Dems have a reasonably safe two thirds majority in the State Senate from his map? That is where the rubber meets the road. How many competitive seats did he draw? Did he make a claim as to that with the State Senate map? Is the SS map put up on the Court site?

See my last post for the link. Lots of Dem seats like the gerrymandered map, just more competitive where they should have been. Biden won the 32nd most Dem seat by 20 points, and the 42nd by 9 points.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

Do you have a link for the 2020#'s?   I'm seeing the 2016/2020 #'s in which was slightly better for Biden in 3 than 2.

Copy the map and load it on DRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

This map still keeps 23 and 26 relatively safe for their respective parties but ig they could both be very vulnerable in a mega wave. Most of the suburbs left out of Buffalo are more conservative working class areas that voted p much 50-50 in 2020.

[Nyvin]

SD-52 (Tompkins/Binghampton) looks like a freebie pickup for the Dems,  it's a Biden+20 seat in an area currently represented by two Republicans right now.

To get to 42 seats, Demcrats would need four seats that are less than 55% Biden.   There's two seats that are around Biden+9 that have D incumbents that seem pretty safe, so it's really more about the last two.  (This is not counting Felder as a Democratic vote)

[ProgressiveModerate]

The good news for Dems is even if the maps change, Cervas has already put forwards what he believes is fair from a partisanship standpoint so it’s not like the May 20 map will suddenly create 9 Trump seats or smtg.

I guarantee there will be lots of comments about south Brooklyn and I think the final map makes significant changes but still doesn’t create the fabeled Orthodox seat, though possibly does try and consolidate Asian voters into NY-10 more.

I also see a lot of work around the edges when it comes to how municipales are chopped. For instance I find the collection of precincts NY-02 takes in from Nassau quite strange. In NYC too there are a lot of jagged edges that will hopefully be a bit resolved.

Upstate, I don’t expect much to dramatically change other than possibly changing the Buffalo and Rochester config if it gets too many complaints and maybe the Central Valley districts will be cleaned up too, specifically when it comes to County chops. At the very least all upstate districts will likely retain their cores as there won’t rlly be any racial complaints.

Overall given the amount of competitive seats, this could be a bit of a trendmander either way. Most of the swing seats swung hard right in 2016 and then hard left in 2020. Both upstate and Long Island/Staten Island are politically very unique and often buck conventional wisdom which makes predicting these regions hard.

[lfromnj]

Here's the Albany metro lines. Just as a reminder that Albany County is 315k people and a district is 320k. As Kwabbit said, what we knew before was unknown but this more or less confirms what me, him and RussFeingold had suspicions about.

[lfromnj]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville


Syracuse gets to stay whole but is properly unpacked by placing it with more conservative outer ring exurbs while the inner ring ones are placed with the city of Utica.
Of the 4 major upstate metros only Buffalo doesn't do anything that isn't Dem favorable. It still does split the city and it does help Democrats somewhat but nothing drastic.




Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

Cervas really is a standard partisan hack all the way through. Its one thing to be in a position of power and try to favor the Democrats on the congressional maps in worry of the national outcome. It may also be defendable to gerrymander the PA state house in the name of partisan fairness. There is literally no reason to gerrymander these state senate maps other than being a pure partisan hack.

[rhg2052]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

[Smash255]

The good news for Dems is even if the maps change, Cervas has already put forwards what he believes is fair from a partisanship standpoint so it’s not like the May 20 map will suddenly create 9 Trump seats or smtg.

I guarantee there will be lots of comments about south Brooklyn and I think the final map makes significant changes but still doesn’t create the fabeled Orthodox seat, though possibly does try and consolidate Asian voters into NY-10 more.

I also see a lot of work around the edges when it comes to how municipales are chopped. For instance I find the collection of precincts NY-02 takes in from Nassau quite strange. In NYC too there are a lot of jagged edges that will hopefully be a bit resolved.

Upstate, I don’t expect much to dramatically change other than possibly changing the Buffalo and Rochester config if it gets too many complaints and maybe the Central Valley districts will be cleaned up too, specifically when it comes to County chops. At the very least all upstate districts will likely retain their cores as there won’t rlly be any racial complaints.

Overall given the amount of competitive seats, this could be a bit of a trendmander either way. Most of the swing seats swung hard right in 2016 and then hard left in 2020. Both upstate and Long Island/Staten Island are politically very unique and often buck conventional wisdom which makes predicting these regions hard.

The NY-2 portion in Nassau isn't that strange when looking deeper into where it is split.  It is primarily portions of Plainview, Woodbury and a little of Syosset.   Primarily main roads are the dividing lines (Old Country Road, Seaford Oyster Bay Expressway, S Oyster Bay Rd, Northern Blvd)

[kwabbit]

Cervas really is a standard partisan hack all the way through. Its one thing to be in a position of power and try to favor the Democrats on the congressional maps in worry of the national outcome. It may also be defendable to gerrymander the PA state house in the name of partisan fairness. There is literally no reason to gerrymander these state senate maps other than being a pure partisan hack.

It's just obnoxious to be specifically hired by a judge to draw a fair map and then draw a medium gerrymander. This wasn't even a light gerrymander, I'd say it's more comparable with DeSantis' map. Which is a step down from the legislature's CD map but still a gerrymander nonetheless.

PEC stinks after this cycle. They have practically zero credibility at this point. Wang and Cervas are simply Democratic Party activists who have been able to fool some Boomer judges into implementing gerrymanders. This type of BS is why it's so common to view educated institutions like academia and media with distrust. They pretend to be neutral but are just trying to hide their bias under the guise of knowledge.

[Devils30]

This is kind of like a Dem commission map similar to NJ in terms of things. Yes the GOP can open the floodgates with a R+4 2022 election but the Dems would win 21 of 26 seats in an even popular vote year.

[Tintrlvr]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

[Nyvin]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

[lfromnj]

Plans cores metrics are weird. They favor Democrats .  They had the 10 7 PA house democrats map as more fair than the 8 9 GOP map.

[Sol]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Not many states with those though! Really just New England plus Utah and Texas, plus maybe Iowa at the congressional level.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Not many states with those though! Really just New England plus Utah and Texas, plus maybe Iowa at the congressional level.

At least CA and TX both have big anti-R biases, as do most of New England. Here, there's a lot of trapped R votes that can't possibly be placed in an R-winnable district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Arizona but ye most D biased geo states are in the South where Rs have control or in New England

[lfromnj]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Not many states with those though! Really just New England plus Utah and Texas, plus maybe Iowa at the congressional level.

Why Utah ? It would just be a locked in 1 3? Wouldn't Kansas be more favorable ?

[Sol]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Not many states with those though! Really just New England plus Utah and Texas, plus maybe Iowa at the congressional level.

Why Utah ? It would just be a locked in 1 3? Wouldn't Kansas be more favorable ?

I guess I was kind of going off sort of non-Trump elections, but even on like 2012 numbers there's decent odds that Democrats would get a seat.

[lfromnj]

Mr.Cervas does a DeSantismander in Rochester(he splits by some river there) splitting the black community more egregiously than Ron DeSantis did in Jacksonville

He could have done this better (keeping the black community together) but it wouldn't make a difference from a partisan perspective as the white voters in the western district (presumably from the towns south of Rochester) to be moved to the eastern are still solid D, and the eastern district would still include the solid D heavily white parts of east Rochester, so this isn't a partisan issue.

Meanwhile district 40 in Northern Westchester drowns out Republican areas of the Lower Hudson valley in Putnam and Rockland counties. Infact rather than crossing the only bridge in Nyack in SE Rockland which is very D it decides to take the Trump +20 town of Stony point. Maybe this could be justified on a township split but it is true that there is literally no bridge connection until you go much further south or north along the Hudson river. Infact Stony Point is actually the least connected township on the West bank of the Hudson River with the East Bank.

This is simply wrong: The Bear Mountain Bridge is right at the northern end of Stony Point and means that there is a connection within the district.

I apologize about the Stony point one. I didn't see the bridge at the corner. However Mr.Cervas did this exact same move in Harrisburg PA with Rochester. He clearly split the city up to deny Republicans any seats in the area even if they do exceptionally well such as DeFoor. Democrats no matter what will have 3 Safe seats in Harrisburg.  The same is now true with Rochester, they will get 2 Safe seats instead of him deciding to make 1 Super Safe seat and 1 actually semi competitive seat.   Of course even if one forced him to keep Rochester whole he would likely add conservative exurbs to it instead of the inner ring suburbs to still create the 2nd seat as Democratic as possible just like Syracuse.