2020 New York Redistricting

[Sol]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

I have said it before and I will say it again: in order to not discriminate against the various NYC groups that are legally protected, you need to find Whites from somewhere to add into the seats to prevent minority packing, and the Orthodox are just the closest and most readily available. The progressives are also a viable option, but as shown by this map, you need to partially carve them both up for all the minority seats. There is a reason why the GOP's dream map had one of the LI seats reach into the region, rather than use a existing dem seat.

The trouble is is that carving the white progressives actually lets you make two seats with stronger Black influence, plus also keeps the Chinese community whole:



link

8 and 7 are both majority Black VAP.

[GALeftist]

Truly bizarre map. Don't like it from an objective standpoint but pretty damn D favorable all things considered.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently, Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are gonna be running against each other

[Smash255]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

Do you have a link for the 2020#'s?   I'm seeing the 2016/2020 #'s in which was slightly better for Biden in 3 than 2.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I do like that there is a district entirely in Manhattan again, haven’t seen one of those for a minute

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain to me a few things:

How come Wasserman thinks this is terrible for D’s yet Cohn thinks it’s great for Dems (and so do some posters here)

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain to me a few things:

How come Wasserman thinks this is terrible for D’s yet Cohn thinks it’s great for Dems (and so do some posters here)

Cohn explains his and Dave's reasonings. Essentially, Dave is looking at it solely from 2022 persepective, so lots of Blue swing seats is bad for Ds. But Cohn and much of other geo-nerds are looking at it either in the average year - where many of the swing seats favor Ds - or are comparing it to what was also on the table. That latter view sees this as one of the best deals possible for Dems.

[patzer]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

I have said it before and I will say it again: in order to not discriminate against the various NYC groups that are legally protected, you need to find Whites from somewhere to add into the seats to prevent minority packing, and the Orthodox are just the closest and most readily available. The progressives are also a viable option, but as shown by this map, you need to partially carve them both up for all the minority seats. There is a reason why the GOP's dream map had one of the LI seats reach into the region, rather than use a existing dem seat.

It's actually very easy to turn the 10th into an Asian-opportunity seat in South Brooklyn. Here's a go at modifying the Special Master's map to achieve this; only the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th districts have any changes at all. Incidentally all five districts are very much safe Biden, so this also functions as a more pro-Democrat map (I was surprised to discover this as I drew it without partisanship data; had expected the 10th to be competitive).

8th is 52% black; 9th is 47% black; 10th is 34% Asian and 42% white but I expect it'd probably be Asian-plurality in the Dem primary.

You're still dividing the Orthodox community with a map like this, though its core is in the 8th.

[Torie]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I say this with all due respect, but what are you talking about?  There is no even remotely compelling argument for an orthodox seat existing on anything even remotely resembling a neutral map.  And NY-19 would be a Biden seat on most neutral maps.

[Torie]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I know Cervas gave my map very serious consideration. There were a lot of competing considerations to balance. (Losing that extra seat in south Brooklyn makes the map so much cleaner, and in that sense he did go on a variation of the the Prieve theme.)  And it is tough to know what is a truly competitive seat in some places, given that the swing was so big going to both directions between Trump 2016 and 2020. I do take some credit for the emphasis on competitive seats (per my letter and court presentation where they both were nodding vigorously when I emphasized that issue).

Personally, I like the map for selfish reasons, because in so many seats, a MAGA can't win, and a bold progressive can't win, and thus we may see a resurgence of moderates being elected from both parties. Both parties by and large utterly repel me these days. I don't feel represented, at all.

I think he also pushed NY-21 way south to put the entirety of Tompkins in NY-19 in a clean way, after my rant against Common Cause for the way they did it.

I hope to write a letter to the court saying I think I understand what he did and respect it, even though I failed to give birth to that south Brooklyn seat that should have been drawn not only now, but 10 years ago.

I wonder if he will write a report explaining what he did and file it today or tomorrow morning. He is probably under the gun finishing the State Senate map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526300363309125632?s=20&t=Q86U48...

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526302382996455425?s=20&t=Q86U48...


Like the Congressional Plan, this amounts to basically making the gerry'ed map competitive where it should, rather than swing back towards the GOP. Still limited relief for republicans who say their old lines collapse.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

[kwabbit]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I say this with all due respect, but what are you talking about?  There is no even remotely compelling argument for an orthodox seat existing on anything even remotely resembling a neutral map.  And NY-19 would be a Biden seat on most neutral maps.

A compact South Brooklyn seat is obvious. If race was not a metric, this seat should exist. Even when taking the VRA into account, it is very easy to send the Black seats West instead of South. There would very likely not be two Trump seats in NYC on a neutral map however.

Just because the previous map goes South doesn't mean every fair map needs to. Cervas clearly didn't want to stir the pot too much, keeping Jeffries seat the same and only giving the GOP a very marginal seat in SI, rather than the Trump +10 seat that's easily possible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I say this with all due respect, but what are you talking about?  There is no even remotely compelling argument for an orthodox seat existing on anything even remotely resembling a neutral map.  And NY-19 would be a Biden seat on most neutral maps.

A compact South Brooklyn seat is obvious. If race was not a metric, this seat should exist. Even when taking the VRA into account, it is very easy to send the Black seats West instead of South. There would very likely not be two Trump seats in NYC on a neutral map however.

Just because the previous map goes South doesn't mean every fair map needs to. Cervas clearly didn't want to stir the pot too much, keeping Jeffries seat the same and only giving the GOP a very marginal seat in SI, rather than the Trump +10 seat that's easily possible.

A neutral map would have no Trump seats in NYC.

[Torie]

Can someone explain to me a few things:

How come Wasserman thinks this is terrible for D’s yet Cohn thinks it’s great for Dems (and so do some posters here)

Ignorance and bias, but I assume you already knew that pundits in the public square tend to survive based on the thoughts of others. If they had their own horsepower, they would be doing something else. Next!

[Torie]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

[kwabbit]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I say this with all due respect, but what are you talking about?  There is no even remotely compelling argument for an orthodox seat existing on anything even remotely resembling a neutral map.  And NY-19 would be a Biden seat on most neutral maps.

A compact South Brooklyn seat is obvious. If race was not a metric, this seat should exist. Even when taking the VRA into account, it is very easy to send the Black seats West instead of South. There would very likely not be two Trump seats in NYC on a neutral map however.

Just because the previous map goes South doesn't mean every fair map needs to. Cervas clearly didn't want to stir the pot too much, keeping Jeffries seat the same and only giving the GOP a very marginal seat in SI, rather than the Trump +10 seat that's easily possible.

A neutral map would have no Trump seats in NYC.

What is a neutral configuration in your eyes?

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone have the actual numbers for each district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

[Torie]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

Nope.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

Nope.

How so?

[lfromnj]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

[Nyvin]

Just a hunch, but maybe the Buffalo/Rochester districts were drawn the way they were to avoid them from being completely surrounded by 1 district (like on the current map)?   It takes pretty skillful craft to avoid either seat from being "donuted" and this map does exactly that.