2020 New York Redistricting

[Torie]

Here is the final Cervas map, with a layer of his preliminary map, so one can see the changes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/364f6082-dd4b-4aa2-9b2d-7dc6e99adefa



Mr. Dunn was a fail on his primary mission, but did have one small impact as a technocrat.

Kudos to Mr. Prieve for discerning that the appropriate star to use for purposes of redistricting navigation is indeed declination.

[Torie]

Mr. X has twice now employed the phrase "with all due respect to" before pounding out my screen name, which reminds me of a story. I was once listening to this irascible judge, and he was ranting about how the habit of lawyers as a preface to referring to him employing the phrase "with all due respect Your Honor," utterly enraged him. You see, the possible implication was that the amount of respect he was "due" was the null set, and it was just a polite way of saying he deserved zero respect.

So, with that said, with all due respect to Mr. X, I basically don't agree with much if anything that he posted above. But inasmuch as most of it (except the assertions about what the law provides) are his subjective opinions (e.g., punish SPM and punish him some more, and he's a loser), and we all have them, including moi, life is still beautiful for me, and I don't mind. I did my best for South Brooklyn, but came up short, even though for a bit there I was quite hopeful that I had broken through to Dr. Cervas (he appreciated my map concepts). But when he chose to not cross Long Island sound with NY-03, for perfectly sound reasons actually (although alas not discussed in his report), I knew the jig was up. Perhaps it would have been different if the community down there had been more involved from day one, but it was not. It was unfortunate that he chopped Borough Park in half however in his final map iteration.

PS: Ferry connections may not suffice under NY law for purposes of contiguity, and I have never seen a NYS map that relied on that for connectivity. Links to Staten Island rely on the bridge, and to Brooklyn from Manhattan on bridges or tunnels.

[Torie]

It fits into the rest of the Northeast quite nicely.

Overall, I'm happy with the final product. It abides to all the criteria and is overall relatively clean and fair.

I suspect your secret and proprietary algorithm for your color scheme has something to do with Planscrore.  

Well maybe not. Its black box has your white NY-01 marked as  the Dems having a 38% chance of winning, and your light blue NY-19 at a 54% Dem chance of winning (your very pale red NY-02 is at a 31% Dem chance), so to use a term that you like, that is asymmetrical. Oh well. Have fun with your color scheme.

[Torie]

It is interesting that in the CD map, almost all the changes went in a Pub direction where it mattered, and perhaps not coincidentally, got the Cervas map Planscore Eff Gap rating down to almost zero along with hsi zero declination rating. All of that added 0.3 Pub seats as an expectation per Planscore.

[Torie]

Demagoguery is a bipartisan affliction.

https://jeffries.house.gov/2022/05/21/rep-jeffries-statement-on-unconstitutional-map-released-in-the-dead-of-night/

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.

We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

Ehh running in the district your home is actually in, doesn't rank high on my shenanigans list.

Mostly although he certainly should lose his job as the head of the DCCC. I do gotta love Biaggi attacking SPM for "carpetbagging" when she doesn't even live in the district in the first place. FWIW Jones was definetely the better candidate for this seat as he won the Orthodox areas.

Why was Jones popular there? Did SPM crash and burn in Palm Tree?

[Torie]

Redistricting isn’t over in NY State. Recall that the NYS Assembly maps were struck down and are to be redrawn for 2024.

Today, NYS Supreme Court Justice Laurence Love has ordered that the Independent Redistricting Commission be reconsitituted to redraw these maps:

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1575546495797178368?s=21&t=KAaAhBvz0Rmz9...
This seems to contradict both the Court of Appeals’ logic in the Harkenrider decision and a recent attempt to reconvene the IRC to do a mid-decade redraw of the Congressional and State Senate maps for 2024 that was heard in State Supreme Court in Albany.

Remember - the NYS Supreme Court is actually the lowest court. This decision will likely be appealed.

NYC is also redistricting its 51 city council districts, but that’s another story for another day.

But the queen bee of the judicial system has or is resigning, so now the Court of Appeals might have second thoughts as to its previous decision.

[Torie]

It was done from 2003 to 2013, but it was pretty unreasonable then, as it jumped over the Tappan Zee rather than using the bridge.

The only reason that the current NY-17 is connected by the Mario Cuomo Bridge is me. Bye. 

[Torie]

I don't know if the subtext of this is related to redistricting, but the fight over who will be chief justice of the Court of Appeals in NYS has turned vicious. The Dems in the State Senate packed the Judiciary Committee with more progressive Dems, so that it is 13D-6R, and then killed the nomination of LaSalle, the moderate Hispanic, 10-9. The Dem Senate leader won't let it go to the floor. Hochul is threatening to sue to force it to the floor. It is threatening to upset budget negotiations.

Both SCOTUS and the high courts of the states are getting ever more politicized. It is beginning to remind me of what is going on in Israel. Folks are even bothering with trying to put lipstick on the pig anymore. They want partisan hacks, and they want them now.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/democrats-reject-hochuls-pick-hector-lasalle.html

[Torie]

I don't know if the subtext of this is related to redistricting, but the fight over who will be chief justice of the Court of Appeals in NYS has turned vicious. The Dems in the State Senate packed th Judiciary Committee with more progressive Dems, so that it is 13D-6R, and then killed the nomination of LaSalle, the moderate Hispanic, 10-9. The Dem Senate leader won't let it go to the floor. Hochul is threatening to sue to force it to the floor. It is threatening to upset budget negotiations.

Both SCOTUS and the high courts of the states are getting ever more politicized. It is beginning to remind me of what is going on in Israel. Folks are even bothering with trying to put lipstick on the pig anymore. They want partisan hacks, and they want them now.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/democrats-reject-hochuls-pick-hector-lasalle.html

This is partially why I rebumped this thread a bit. With the LaSalle nomination failing (and likely the nomination of any other moderate/conservative judge), the chances of Ds redrawing *and* the Ds redrawing the congressional map just went up a bunch.

Ig the main question I have about mid-decade redistricting is can Dems literally just pass a map with a supermajority during the middle of the year without bringing the commission map, cause ik the assembly lines are going to be redrawn via the commission through court order.

I hope Ds won't pass an obliteration like the so-called "Hochulamder" but if they do redistrict, create a favorable map that's still generally reasonable on the district-by-district level (as shown earlier in this thread). The possibility of putting Stefanik into a competitive seat probably have a lot of power, even if that means the Central Valley isn't optimizied.

I think the Dems have a bare 2/3 majority in the State Senate, so they would need to hold Felder's vote to do a redraw.  I tend to doubt that if and when the Dems get a chief justice that they like, that judge will reverse the prior decision as wrongly decided. I also think that Hochul may just leave the seat vacant, which will certainly be the case if she litigates.

In the meantime, I think the IRC is just drawing the state assembly map.

[Torie]

Pub Senate minority leader to Hochul: sue baby sue.

https://nystateofpolitics.com/state-of-politics/new-york/politics/2023/01/21/ortt-says-hochul-should-sue-to-get-chief-judge-nomination-to-a-floor-vote?oref=csny_firstread_nl

[Torie]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

[Torie]

State constitutions matter.

Apparently not in Florida, where the congressional map clearly violates the Fair Districts Amendment (unduly favoring one party and retrogression of minority representation by getting rid of the 5th district).

Reasonable minds can differ on that, a CD almost certainly not VRA required which was gerrymandered to cave out and join far distant black neighborhoods in Jacksonville and Tallahassee to make it black performing. A closer case is how the replacement CD was drawn to have it reach into a third county to get the Dem percentage down even while not diluting the black percentage much.

I’m not talking about the VRA here.  I am talking about the state Fair Districts Amendment, which does not allow retrogression of minority representation.  Replacing the old FL-05 with a compact Duval district would have been fine, but not splitting the county to clearly prevent an African American Democrat from representing a district in that area.

The county has to be split.  Are you sure that the Florida law prevents retrogression? If it does, that might run afoul of SCOTUS law. I think FL-05 as drawn should be struck, but don't agree with your remedy, so I guess I am in the middle of the sandwich here.
 

[Torie]

The VRA may be in play with FL-20. Excluding Nassau County makes the map more erose, and without it, FL-05 is still swing. I don't think there is a viable road connection to Nassau to the west without going through Duval County, so I don't think including  Nassau is egregious. Adding the western portion of the county to the south is far more problematical.

[Torie]

Here is the state of play over what appears to be the impending Hochul lawsuit over the refusal of the State Senate majority leader to bring the nomination to the floor. What the remedy is, if the State Senate is in fact held to be in breach of the State Constitution, is unclear. (Perhaps the state senate members could lodge their vote with the court, and decide the matter that way.) If the Court of Appeals splits 3-3 on the matter, the lower Appellate Court decision would stand, so perhaps Hochul’s hot shot attorney might venue shop.

“The Senate’s specific role in the nomination process is detailed in Section 68(4)(e) of the Judiciary Law: “The senate shall confirm or reject such appointment no later than thirty days after receipt of the nomination from the governor. A vacancy shall be deemed to occur upon the rejection by the senate of such an appointment.”

‘The key question is whether a rejection by the Senate Judiciary Committee counts as ‘rejection by the senate.’ ”

Fun stuff.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/01/can-kathy-hochul-really-sue-ny-senate-over-hector-lasalle/382040/

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

[Torie]

Don't want to derail the thread but I really don't get why everyone is always obsessing over how sneaky the DeSantis map is or whatever. Do you guys seriously think that you couldn't convince a layperson that a map that gives Republicans >70% of the seats with <60% of the votes is gerrymandered, especially with that atrocious FL-14? It's not as bad as it could be but it's hardly some work of art.

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

Well it was already defeated in committee. Why would D leadership bring it to the floor unless forced? That would inherently weaken the power of the committee which is not in their interest. Plus, it could be the case that a court order to hold a floor vote could make more Democrats turn against LaSalle.

To avoid embarrassing litigation and possible humiliation. If you got the votes, flash them baby. I suspect at the moment that the Dem leadership have not run the traps successfully enough to have them locked down. It should make an interesting case. In that sense, bring it, if only to entertain the Torie fossil.

Maybe there is a psychological need to lash out because Hochul won't raise taxes.

[Torie]

I am skeptical this lawsuit will fly, at least for the moment. My guess is Hochul is doing this performatively, since she is on such thin ice with the progressive wing of her party, thwarting it at every turn on almost everything. You go girl.

In the meantime, the 4th vote is an acting judge, who does not seem in the vanguard of the revolution himself, and I think would be reluctant to reverse a prior opinion in such a capacity.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2023/02/28/acting-chief-judge-sounds-off-on-lasalle-rejection

The Court of Appeals has been described as paralyzed.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/03/theres-total-paralysis-nys-chief-judge-vacancy-courts-are-stagnant/384159/

It is possible that the lawsuit is a signal that Hochul will nominate out of the next pool submitted to her, a bold progressive, who will go for a redraw, as part of a modus vivendi between the governor and the progressives.

Speculation on top of speculation.

[Torie]

I'll look forward to hearing from right wing posters how unethical and immoral it is for New York Democrats to gerrymander the state while they cheer and boost about North Carolina Republicans doing the same thing.

The respective state constitutions have different provisions.

[Torie]

I'll look forward to hearing from right wing posters how unethical and immoral it is for New York Democrats to gerrymander the state while they cheer and boost about North Carolina Republicans doing the same thing.

The respective state constitutions have different provisions.

Let's be real - The foundational aspects of what's going on is the same in both states, despite only one of two parties willing to the moral and fair thing at all when given the chance to, quite conveniently for Republicans.

The two states actually do have different laws, so while both parties wanted to gerrymander in both places of course, they got shot down in both places, but in NC, which has no specific anti-gerrymandering provision while NYS does, the court reversed itself when the Pubs got control.
If you want to ascribe evil intent to just one of the two parties, that certainly is your privilege. My view is that they both are evil, and always have been, when it comes to gerrymandeing, and both are indefatiguable in putting lipstick on the pigs.

[Torie]

I'll look forward to hearing from right wing posters how unethical and immoral it is for New York Democrats to gerrymander the state while they cheer and boost about North Carolina Republicans doing the same thing.

The respective state constitutions have different provisions.

Let's be real - The foundational aspects of what's going on is the same in both states, despite only one of two parties willing to the moral and fair thing at all when given the chance to, quite conveniently for Republicans.

The two states actually do have different laws, so while both parties wanted to gerrymander in both places of course, they got shot down in both places, but in NC, which has no specific anti-gerrymandering provision while NYS does, the court reversed itself when the Pubs got control.
If you want to ascribe evil intent to just one of the two parties, that certainly is your privilege. My view is that they both are evil, and always have been, when it comes to gerrymandeing, and both are indefatigable in putting lipstick pigs.

...and how exactly did that happen?

Over Dem opposition I believe, by referendum put on the ballot via signatures, the NYS Constitution was amended to set up a redistricting process, which inter alia has a provision that the lines shall not unduly favor one party over another - far more specific than a provision that was in an original state constitution about equal application of the laws, etc. (which is what obtained in NC).

And that is what the Dem gerrymander crashed and burned under, along with some procedural flaws. And thus in the CD map that the court drew, I actually had a small bit of influence. Isn't that special?  

[Torie]

My view is that they both are evil, and always have been, when it comes to gerrymandeing, and both are indefatiguable in putting lipstick pigs.

Democrats have proposed anti-gerrymandering legislation nationally and when this issue goes to the Supreme Court, the Republican caucus favors partisan gerrymandering while the Dem caucus argues for democratic standards. You can’t handwave that away because some state parties push to their advantage. The New York Democratic Party is an ethical disaster in its own right and that hurts many Democrats in the state.

The NC Constitution has guarantees of free elections and equal protection which are violated by gerrymandering. The new Republican majority chose to ignore these enunciated constitutional rights in enshrining a Republican right to gerrymander. They were inconvenient to Republican rule.

Both I and SCOTUS disagree with your opinion set forth in your second paragraph for the record.

Since no anti gerrymandering law was actually passed nationally, I am not sure how the issue of un-passed legislation ever got to SCOTUS, or would get to SCOTUS. It is true that SCOTUS decided it was not in the anti-gerrymandering business because there was no justicable standard to apply (other than proportionality which had them screaming to the exits). Kagan in a dissent whimpered about how you can get rid of the worst of maps that have no algorithm other than to screw the other party. That is perhaps true, but I can draw maps that have other algorithms that seem facially reasonable, and create pretty maps to boot, that screw the other side, with one hand tied behind my back, and have done so hundreds of times. So Kagan's world view might nibble around the edges, but you would want more, much more. Amirite?  

[Torie]

My view is that they both are evil, and always have been, when it comes to gerrymandeing, and both are indefatiguable in putting lipstick pigs.

The NC Constitution has guarantees of free elections and equal protection which are violated by gerrymandering. The new Republican majority chose to ignore these enunciated constitutional rights in enshrining a Republican right to gerrymander. They were inconvenient to Republican rule.

Both I and SCOTUS disagree with your opinion set forth in your second paragraph for the record.

Did the Republican majority on SCOTUS weigh in on the equal protection and free election clauses of the North Carolina Constitution not being violated by gerrymandering? I didn’t think they had, and that they tried to avoid weighing in on state constitutional issues, but refresh my memory.

No, the issue was whether such vague language can under the Federal constitution empower state courts to throw maps passed by the legislature in the trash. Roberts did not want to write an opinion that defined what was too vague and what not, so he ducked after NC reversed course by finding the issue was waived by Plaintiffs. But he did not want to find mootness because he did want to stay the extreme view of SLT, that would have caused a political and Constutional crisis. So Roberts was incredibly disingenuous here, as even he would admit if you plied him with a couple of beers.

Clear as mud, right?

[Torie]

Over Dem opposition I believe, by referendum put on the ballot via signatures, the NYS Constitution was amended to set up a redistricting process, which inter alia has a provision that the lines shall not unduly favor one party over another - far more specific than a provision that was in an original state constitution about equal application of the laws, etc. (which is what obtained in NC).

And that is what the Dem gerrymander crashed and burned under, along with some procedural flaws. And thus in the CD map that the court drew, I actually had a small bit of influence. Isn't that special?  

Incorrect.   New York has no ballot initiative process, it was created by the state legislature.

You might be right. Ah the glory days of Andrew Cuomo.

[Torie]

A couple of things I gleaned that I did not know before are: 1) Only upon rejection of that second plan may the Legislature, under the constitutional procedure, "amend[ ]" the maps drawn by the IRC (NY Const, art III, § 4). Any such legislative amendments are then statutorily limited to those that would affect no more than two percent of the population in any district (see L 2012, ch 17, § 3), and 2) if the commission fails to submit a map, or maps if there are equal votes for two maps, it goes to the Court to draw a map.

Thus assuming the Dems can get a two thirds vote for a map in the State Senate, in order to screw the Pubs, the Dem commission map will need to do the job since deviations from the Dem commission map will not be able to be more than 2% in population. The map will also need to hew to the law about compactness and not unduly favoring one party.

Assuming the Dems are allowed a second bite out of the apple by the Court of Appeals, it will be interesting to see how they choose to thread the needle, and just how hackish they think the new Chief Justice is. And they might not know for sure prior to the time the Commission Dems submit a map, assuming there is no bi-partisan agreement on the Commission.