Canada predictions contest!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Contest ends when the polls in B.C close. Any edits after then will result in no marks being given.

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this?

2. Guess the popular vote

3. Guess the seat totals

4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber
c) Pontiac
d) Jonquière-Alma
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore
f) St Pauls
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
h) Newmarket-Aurora
i) Ottawa South
j) London-Fanshawe
k) Churchill
l) Vancouver Centre
m) Avalon

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest?

6. Biggest win/Smallest win



Have fun

[2952-0-0]

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this? Stephen Harper

2. Guess the popular vote
Conservative 36
Liberal 29
NDP 18
Bloc 12
Green 3
Other 2

3. Guess the seat totals

4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont Tory
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber Bloc
c) Pontiac Tory
d) Jonquière-Alma Bloc
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore Tory
f) St Pauls Liberal
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek NDP
h) Newmarket-Aurora Tory
i) Ottawa South Liberal
j) London-Fanshawe NDP
k) Churchill NDP
l) Vancouver Centre Liberal
m) Avalon Liberal

5. Which leader is in the most danger? Duceppe (if he loses a lot of seats)And which is safest? Harper

6. Biggest win Somewhere in rural Alberta

Smallest win La Salle Emard

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this? Harper

2. Guess the popular vote
Con 37
Lib 27
NDP 18
BQ 11
Green 6

3. Guess the seat totals
Con 149 (+50)
Lib 68 (-67)
BQ 62 (+8)
NDP 28 (+9)
Ind 1 (+0)

4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont BQ
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber BQ
c) Pontiac Con
d) Jonquière-Alma BQ
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore Con
f) St Pauls Lib
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek NDP
h) Newmarket-Aurora Con
i) Ottawa South Con
j) London-Fanshawe Con
k) Churchill NDP
l) Vancouver Centre Lib
m) Avalon Lib

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest?

Stephen Harper - Safest
Gilles Duceppe
Jack Layton
Paul Martin - Most danger, none as far as his seat is concerned, but he 's in considerable danger of being booted as leader.

6. Biggest win/Smallest win
Biggest: Kevin Sorenson - Crowfoot
Smallest: Pontiac  (I think the BQ, Grits and Tories will all end up between 30 and 33% here, and a win by any of the three would not surprise me.)

[Emsworth]

Just seat totals for now:

Con: 146
Lib: 70
BQ: 63
NDP: 28
Ind: 1

[Hatman 🍁]

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this? Harper

2. Guess the popular vote
Conservatives 37
Liberals 29
NDP 17
BQ 11
Greens 5
Other 1

3. Guess the seat totals
Conservatives 127
Liberals 94
BQ 57
NDP 29
Ind 1


4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont - Liberal
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber - BQ
c) Pontiac - Cons
d) Jonquière-Alma - BQ
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Liberal
f) St Pauls - Liberal
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
h) Newmarket-Aurora - Cons
i) Ottawa South - Liberal
j) London-Fanshawe - NDP
k) Churchill - NDP
l) Vancouver Centre - Liberal
m) Avalon - Liberal

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest?

Martin / Harper

6. Biggest win/Smallest win

Crowfoot / Ottawa South

[Bacon King]

I have minimal knowledge of Canadian politics, but I'll throw out a random guess.

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this?
Stephen Harper

2. Guess the popular vote
CPC: 37
LPC: 28
BQ: 13
NDP: 17
Greens & others: 5

3. Guess the seat totals
CPC: 147
LPC: 62
BQ: 67
NDP:31
Ind:1

4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont: BQ
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber: BQ
c) Pontiac: Conservative
d) Jonquière-Alma: BQ
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Liberal
f) St Pauls: Liberal
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: NDP
h) Newmarket-Aurora: Conservative
i) Ottawa South: Conservative
j) London-Fanshawe: NDP
k) Churchill: Liberal
l) Vancouver Centre: NDP
m) Avalon: Liberal

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest?
Martin's in the most danger, Harper's safest.
6. Biggest win/Smallest win
Biggest- Cypress Hills-Grasslands
Smallest- Pontiac

[Hatman 🍁]

a) Outremont Tory

[2952-0-0]

a) Outremont Tory

Sorry, I thought Outremont was in the Eastern Townships. I change it to Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

a) Outremont Tory

Sorry, I thought Outremont was in the Eastern Townships. I change it to Liberal

Yeah, even the NDP has a better shot than the tories (Outremont will be our best riding in Quebec)

[angus]

okay, so as not to clutter up your already long thread, I'll move my prediction to here:

1.  harper
2.  cpc 36%, lpc 27%, ndp 19%, bq 13%, others 6%
3.  CPC - 114
LPC - 89
BQ - 62
NDP - 43

4,5,6.  Mine is a casual follower/top-down approach.

Soft grits?  Yo homeboy lemme get some collard greens with that.  I still can't see the word grits without thinking "black people food"  But then the last two places I stayed were Columbus and Harlem (and there's no shortage of grits or black people in either of those places.)

my serious prediction:  harper will manage to build a closer alliance with the US, strengthening both our countries, but with the unfortunate side-effect of making Canada's ecological footprint larger than it already is.  But whatever he manages to do will fall apart the minute he uses it to try to get too much involved with US goals in the middle east.  By and large, the people of Canada just don't want any part of that.  And the majority of Canadian PMs will realize that oil and guns are best left to the imperialist powers USA and UK.  No offense to those great nations, but it's not going to be as popular with our neighbors to the north.

Reprazent.

[Dave from Michigan]

a complete guess

seats

Harper will be PM

conservative 160
liberal 55
BQ  58
NDP 35

popular vote

con 40%   
liberal 26%
NDP 21%
BQ  12%

harper is safe
Martin is in most danger


Changed popular vote percents

[bullmoose88]

1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this?

Harper

2. Guess the popular vote
Conservatives 38.9%
Liberals 27.1%
NDP 16%
Bloc 17%
Others 1%

3. Guess the seat totals

Conservatives-130
Liberals-91
Bloc-53
NDP-34


4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont-Bloc
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber
c) Pontiac-Tory
d) Jonquière-Alma
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore-No idea
f) St Pauls-Liberal
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
h) Newmarket-Aurora-Liberal
i) Ottawa South-NDP
j) London-Fanshawe-NDP
k) Churchill-NDP
l) Vancouver Centre-Tory?
m) Avalon-No Idea

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest?
Most indanger-Martin
Safest-Duceppe

6. Biggest win/Smallest win

Biggest Win-Tories Calgary West
Closest-Liberals New Market Aurora

[The Man From G.O.P.]

MY guess:

Con: 123
Lib: 103
BQ:50
NDP:32
OTH:1

























OOOPS, nice predicions everyone!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think I'll go ahead and conceed points 2 and 3 to Earl.

I doubt if we'll have a riding closer than Parry Sound—Muskoka so that's likely the closest, but no one got that one.

[Hatman 🍁]

pwned you all.

[minionofmidas]

Hehe, here's roughly what I would have predicted...
1. Who will be the P.M at the end of all this? Harper

2. Guess the popular vote Would have guessed the Libs too low and the Dippers too high, certainly.

3. Guess the seat totals Ditto. Cons too high, too. I'd have given them a bare majority.

4. Who will win the following ridings? Party will do

a) Outremont. Seriously speaking Libs, but I might have said NDP for kicks.
b) Jeanne-Le-Ber Bloc
c) Pontiac Wassat? Forgot what that is...Oh wait, is it one of the outer Outaouais seats? Bloc in that case
d) Jonquière-Alma Bloc. I did have a gut feelings that the Tories could take quite a swath of seats in Québec - as they did - but I never bothered working out which ones these might be, and I don't think I'd have ever guessed at Jonquière.
e) Etobicoke-Lakeshore Con probably
f) St Pauls Wassat?
g) Hamilton East-Stoney Creek NDP
h) Newmarket-Aurora Liberal...one week before the election. Yesterday...I don't know.
i) Ottawa South Liberal
j) London-Fanshawe NDP
k) Churchill NDP
l) Vancouver Centre Liberal
m) Avalon Tory

5. Which leader is in the most danger? And which is safest? LOL, who am I to know?

6. Biggest win/Smallest win Pass.

Of course, so answering these with hindsight is easier...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Just seat totals for now:

Con: 146
Lib: 70
BQ: 63
NDP: 28
Ind: 1

Did Ems predict that the BLoc would win seats outside Quebec?

[Gabu]

Just seat totals for now:

Con: 146
Lib: 70
BQ: 63
NDP: 28
Ind: 1

Did Ems predict that the BLoc would win seats outside Quebec?

Quebec has 75 seats; certainly, 63 would have been a rather good showing for the Bloc, but it's not impossible.