Rate the Cumulative House Vote by State

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: CO, ME, MN, NH, Nationwide
Lean D: NV, PA
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Toss-Up/Tilt R: AZ
Lean R: FL, GA, IA, NC
Likely R: AK, MT, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: CO, ME, MN, NH, Nationwide
Lean D: NV, PA
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Toss-Up/Tilt R: AZ
Lean R: FL, GA, IA, NC
Likely R: AK, MT, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Not too many qualms, but I'd move Iowa into the toss-up category (maybe tilt-R?)

[ElectionsGuy]

Not too many qualms, but I'd move Iowa into the toss-up category (maybe tilt-R?)

Understandable but I expect all three non-King races to be very razor-thin and the 4th to be an upper single-digit win for King, but (in the case he loses his nomination) with any other R easy double digits, so yes it's a little up in the air right now.

[Calthrina950]

Not too many qualms, but I'd move Iowa into the toss-up category (maybe tilt-R?)

Understandable but I expect all three non-King races to be very razor-thin and the 4th to be an upper single-digit win for King, but (in the case he loses his nomination) with any other R easy double digits, so yes it's a little up in the air right now.

I would also move Colorado to Safe D, as well. CO-06 is gone for Republicans, and I expect Crow to win by double digits this year, just like he did in 2018. Democrats may also be able to come within single digits in Scott Tipton's district again, and Doug Lamborn might be held to the upper 50s again, like he was in 2018. I also expect DeGette to get over 70% again, and Neguse and Perlmutter will probably get around 60%, all as in 2018.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: CO, ME, MN, NH, Nationwide
Lean D: NV, PA
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Toss-Up/Tilt R: AZ
Lean R: FL, GA, IA, NC
Likely R: AK, MT, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

I'd make AZ lean/likely D tbh. Don't mistake me - I still believe it's probably voting R in the Presidential race. However, it's almost certain you'll have a lot of split tickets in eastern AZ, so I can't see the statewide house vote going R while they win just 4/5 districts, especially if the 6th is only voting likely and not safe R.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd make AZ lean/likely D tbh. Don't mistake me - I still believe it's probably voting R in the Presidential race. However, it's almost certain you'll have a lot of split tickets in eastern AZ, so I can't see the statewide house vote going R while they win just 4/5 districts, especially if the 6th is only voting likely and not safe R.

Dems barely won it in 2018, basically identical to the Senate race. So, I don't know what you mean by split tickets in eastern AZ because the vote was pretty party line as far as Congress goes.

Not too many qualms, but I'd move Iowa into the toss-up category (maybe tilt-R?)

Understandable but I expect all three non-King races to be very razor-thin and the 4th to be an upper single-digit win for King, but (in the case he loses his nomination) with any other R easy double digits, so yes it's a little up in the air right now.

I would also move Colorado to Safe D, as well. CO-06 is gone for Republicans, and I expect Crow to win by double digits this year, just like he did in 2018. Democrats may also be able to come within single digits in Scott Tipton's district again, and Doug Lamborn might be held to the upper 50s again, like he was in 2018. I also expect DeGette to get over 70% again, and Neguse and Perlmutter will probably get around 60%, all as in 2018.

Much of Tipton's district is actually getting more Republican (much of Southern Colorado including Pueblo) even though it includes some small Dem strongholds in wealthy ski resorts. Agree on CO-06, I think it's just essentially a turnout battle in Colorado, 3 solid R districts and 4 solid D ones, I just don't think the margin is overwhelming enough statewide to say a freak accident can't occur and R's could narrowly edge out a plurality there. I don't think the 2018 numbers are the baseline for all elections going forward, and Republicans will have at least some higher turnout across the board simply due to it being a presidential year.

[Calthrina950]

I'd make AZ lean/likely D tbh. Don't mistake me - I still believe it's probably voting R in the Presidential race. However, it's almost certain you'll have a lot of split tickets in eastern AZ, so I can't see the statewide house vote going R while they win just 4/5 districts, especially if the 6th is only voting likely and not safe R.

Dems barely won it in 2018, basically identical to the Senate race. So, I don't know what you mean by split tickets in eastern AZ because the vote was pretty party line as far as Congress goes.

Not too many qualms, but I'd move Iowa into the toss-up category (maybe tilt-R?)

Understandable but I expect all three non-King races to be very razor-thin and the 4th to be an upper single-digit win for King, but (in the case he loses his nomination) with any other R easy double digits, so yes it's a little up in the air right now.

I would also move Colorado to Safe D, as well. CO-06 is gone for Republicans, and I expect Crow to win by double digits this year, just like he did in 2018. Democrats may also be able to come within single digits in Scott Tipton's district again, and Doug Lamborn might be held to the upper 50s again, like he was in 2018. I also expect DeGette to get over 70% again, and Neguse and Perlmutter will probably get around 60%, all as in 2018.

Much of Tipton's district is actually getting more Republican (much of Southern Colorado including Pueblo) even though it includes some small Dem strongholds in wealthy ski resorts. Agree on CO-06, I think it's just essentially a turnout battle in Colorado, 3 solid R districts and 4 solid D ones, I just don't think the margin is overwhelming enough statewide to say a freak accident can't occur and R's could narrowly edge out a plurality there. I don't think the 2018 numbers are the baseline for all elections going forward, and Republicans will have at least some higher turnout across the board simply due to it being a presidential year.

I'll concede your point about Tipton's district. I believe his district is pretty much Safe R at this point, and you are correct when you say that it has trended Republican. Tipton won Pueblo County in 2018, and that certainly helped him with his margins against Diane Mitsch-Bush. But the Democrats still have a relatively high floor here, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's held to a high-single digit margin again.

As for the statewide PV, it will be very difficult for Republicans to win it now that CO-06 is gone. CO-05, while still Safe R, is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, and Ken Buck's district out in Eastern Colorado is about as red as it will get at this point. And as I expect Crow's district to become more Democratic, and the Denver metropolitan area to move further to the left, the margin will only widen.