🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ rising a bit after the Vienna terror attack (new "Profil" magazine poll conducted this week):

38% ÖVP (-2)
21% SPÖ (-1)
16% FPÖ (+3)
12% Greens (-1)
10% NEOS (+1)
  3% Others

Opinion on "Lockdown 2.0", which started on Tuesday:

  8% - the measures are not strict enough
55% - the measures for the 2nd lockdown are just right
33% - the measures are overblown
  4% - undecided

42% - say the ÖVP-Green government has lost control over the pandemic in Austria
54% - don't think so
  4% - are undecided

51% - say the situation right now is more critical than in March/April
23% - say it's similar
19% - less critical
  7% - are undecided

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-55-bewerten-die-ausgangsbeschraenkungen-als-angemessen/401089926

[Tender Branson]

This new "Profil" poll is almost identical to the 2019 federal election results.

The ÖVP has lost 10% of their March/April Corona-lockdown bonus (they polled at 48% then).

The SPÖ has gained 5%.

The FPÖ, who dropped back to 11% then, is now recovering after the terror attack.

The Greens have fallen behind (junior coalition partner syndrome).

NEOS steadily increasing at a low level.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz meets the President of Belarus:

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1324345239524593665

[rob in cal]

Tender, the SPO FPO alliance on the pension issue is fascinating, reminds me of the SPO FPO Burgenland coalition of a few years ago. If the FPO could ever clean up its act, the SPO move toward them on immigration to a significant level, and both parties do better in the next election, like win a combined majority, what an interesting spectacle that would be. Probably not realistic for any three scenarios to happen.

Concerning the Greens, it does make sense that sooner or later their wealthier, non-blue collar worker type electorate is going to show itself in terms of policy.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1326519062151704581

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ-NEOS coalition talks in Vienna have come to a successful conclusion after 35 rounds of talks.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-pink-in-wien-verhandlungen-erfolgreich-abgeschlossen/401098263

Details will be presented tomorrow and both party committees will sign off the first Social-Liberal coalition in Austria ever on Tuesday.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

SPÖ-NEOS coalition talks in Vienna have come to a successful conclusion after 35 rounds of talks.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-pink-in-wien-verhandlungen-erfolgreich-abgeschlossen/401098263

Details will be presented tomorrow and both party committees will sign off the first Social-Liberal coalition in Austria ever on Tuesday.

More enhanced social liberalism everywhere then.

Which is not exactly surprising in a large Western city in 2020, of course.

[Tender Branson]

The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

There's also a new poll out by OGM for the "Kurier", which shows that 70% of Vienna voters either welcome or accept the new city government, while 28% are either sceptical or opposed:



In terms of current vote choice, not much has changed since the election a month ago. SPÖ and NEOS seem to get a few extra points though:



https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/ogm-umfrage-wie-die-wiener-die-neue-koalition-sehen/401105460

[Tender Branson]

The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

[CumbrianLefty]

The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

Do we know who these were?

[Tender Branson]

The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

Do we know who these were?

No, it was a secret vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, spoilsports.

[Tender Branson]

Karl-Heinz Grasser

The „darling“ of former ÖVP-Chancellor Schüssel, favourite son-in-law of older women voters and former Finance Minister of Austria, has finally been sentenced to 8 years in prison for corruption after 16 years of trials ...

A court in Vienna convicted the former Austrian finance minister, Karl-Heinz Grasser, of corruption and abuse of power on Friday.

The husband of the heir to the Swarovski empire was sentenced to eight years in prison.

The verdict — for one of several scandals in Austrian politics — came at the end of a three-year-long trial which also included 14 other defendants. One of the co-defendants, and a close friend of Grasser, admitted during the trial to passing on inside information.



The court's verdict found the former lawmaker guilty of providing insider information to a private investor ahead of the sale of 60,000 residences by the Austrian government in 2004.

'Crime of unbelievable proportions'

Grasser informed his partner of the minimum amount necessary for a sale, allowing the buyer to just slightly outbid the competition and secure the purchase. The consortium valued their new properties at double that price just three years later.

For his part, Grasser pocketed around €9.6 million ($11.67 million) — equivalent to 1% of the €961 million sale price.

https://www.dw.com/en/austria-ex-finance-minister-found-guilty-of-corruption/a-55819493

My mom used to say: „Grasser will never be sentenced to prison, he’s so smart that he’ll always find a way out.“

Until today, when judge Marion Hohenecker finally sentenced him ...

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard":

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
14% FPÖ
  8% NEOS
  2% Others

Austrians are also more optimistic (39%) about the future again than pessimistic (32%).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122241783/optimismus-nimmt-zu-zustimmung-zu-kurz-nimmt-ab

[CumbrianLefty]

SPO edging up again?

[Tender Branson]

SPO edging up again?

Hard to tell ... the next state election will only be in 10 months, but it's an important one in Upper Austria. This will be a good indicator to see if voters still trust Kurz and to what extent the opposition parties are gaining ground.

On the other hand it's a state election dominated by the great result of the FPÖ in 2015, right after the immigrant invasion from the Middle-East/Africa.

Like in Vienna, Upper Austria could result in only the FPÖ dropping massively, while all other parties will gain, leaving us clueless about actual trends ...

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll:

40% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
13% Greens
10% NEOS
  2% Others

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-tuerkis-gruene-regierung-mit-stabiler-mehrheit/401120226

[Tender Branson]

Constituational Court ruled that:

* assisted suicide must become legal on Jan. 1, 2022 (parliament has until then to safeguard that there's no abuse)

* the headscarf ban introduced in elementary schools is illegal and must be undone

https://orf.at/stories/3193339/

https://www.thelocal.at/20201211/austria-rules-primary-school-headscarf-ban-unconstitutional

[Tender Branson]

New „ATV“ Trend poll:

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
16% FPÖ
13% Greens
  9% NEOS

55% of voters approve of the ÖVP-Green government, 42% disapprove.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/oesterreich-trend-zeigt-geringe-impfbereitschaft/221933

[Tender Branson]

Contrary to recent federal election trends and results, there are 3 states where the Social Dems still do very well (Vienna, Carinthia and Burgenland).

There's a new Burgenland poll by Hajek POS for the "BVZ" newspaper out and the SPÖ there is back up above 50%:



There's also a new Vienna poll by Unique Research for the "Heute" newspaper, showing only modest changes compared to the state election 2 months ago:



Still, the SPÖ and NEOS are doing better there after their government formation ("honeymoon").

[Tender Branson]

Health Minister Rudy Anschober (Green Party) is revamping the Ministry.

Since yesterday, Austria has a Director of Public Health („Chief Medical Officer“) again, which was abolished by the conservative-nationalist ÖVP-FPÖ government.

Katharina Reich becomes director for public health

by Johanna Hager

The Ministry of Health is repositioning itself - Ulrich Herzog will take over consumer agendas.

The sections (administrative units) in the ministry are being turned inside out. The management of three of the seven sections were put out to tender. These are Section III (Consumer Policy), Section VI (Human Medicine Law) and Section VII (Public Health).

General Director for Public Health ("Chief Medical Officer") - a position held by Pamela Rendi-Wagner and abolished under the ÖVP-FPÖ government - will be Katharina Reich.

Katharina Reich (42) received her doctorate from the Medical University of Vienna in 2003. Reich completed her cycle in the hospital of the Barmherzigen Brüder in Vienna. The trained emergency doctor worked as a ward doctor, hygiene officer and in the staff position of the Medical Directorate for patient safety and clinical risk management. Most recently, Reich worked at the Hietzing Hospital.

As the new director for public health, Reich wants the Supreme Sanitary Council to be convened again, paying special attention to mental health. "It can never be bad to take responsibility as a person and as a doctor. I can take responsibility for the 'Austrian patient'", Reich explains her motivation.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/live-wer-wird-chief-medical-officer-der-republik/401133660

[Tender Branson]

The next state election coming up here will be in Upper Austria in late September.



Upper Austria is the 3rd largest state with 1.5 million people (behind Vienna and Lower Austria).

The capital is Linz, famous for the Kepler University and steel and metal producing industry.

While Linz is a Social Democratic stronghold, the remainder of the state is rural agricultural in the North and touristy mountainous in the South.

On the federal level, Upper Austria is a so-called "bellwether" or "show me" state similar to MO and OH about 20-30 years ago, voting like Austria as a whole.

On the state level, it's ÖVP-dominated because the rural areas outweigh the urban and suburban areas.

The state also reflects Austria pretty well demographically and economically.

The last state election was in 2015, just around the time when 1 million immigrants from the Middle-East streamed into Austria, or through to Germany (via Upper Austria).

The result back then was:

36.4% ÖVP
30.4% FPÖ
18.4% SPÖ
10.3% Greens
  3.5% NEOS
  0.8% KPÖ
  0.4% CPÖ

Turnout: 82%

The state is the only one with a 6-year term, the other states all have 5-year terms.

Upper Austria is also one of 3 states remaining with the so-called "Proporz"-system, where every party above 10% or so is automatically represented in the next government with at least 1 seat. In all other states, there are coalition governments.

Currently, ÖVP-FPÖ have a so-called "working agreement" in the state, which is a coalition in all-but-name, but of course within the Proporz system.

The current polls are like this:

40-46% ÖVP
20-26% FPÖ
14-20% SPÖ
10-16% Greens
    2-5% NEOS

So, the ÖVP (after slumping to a historic low in 2015) is back to normal historic levels, while the FPÖ drops 4-10%, but still remains above 20% - which is pretty good for them right now. In fact, it would be their best state branch result after the implosion of the ÖVP-FPÖ government on the federal level due to the "Ibiza"-scandal by Strache and Gudenus.

This has a lot to do with the person of Manfred Haimbuchner, the FPÖ-leader there, who's seen as being quite popular there. A moderate Elon Musk/Eric Cartman-lookalike within the FPÖ, who seldomly talks controversial topics and who's more like a CSU-style politician similar to nearby Bavaria. Upper Austria also has a large blue-collar workforce due to the above-mentioned steel and metal industry.



The governor of Upper Austria - Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) - is finishing out his first 6-year term, after succeeding the former ÖVP-governor of more than 20 years.


Stelzer: center, and his 2 Vice-Governors

His approval ratings are sky-high at 70-80% and even FPÖ-Haimbuchner's approval ratings are 15 points in the positive, according to the latest Spectra/OÖN poll from November. This is unusually high for an FPÖ politician, who are usually all in negative territory in the general population. But it explains why the FPÖ is doing very well there. Obviously, Hitler was from the state too, but nowadays this has nothing to do with it really.

On the Green side, former party leader Rudolf Anschober became the new Austrian Health Minister and Austrian MP Stefan Kaineder (some kind of Marshall Eriksen-lookalike) took over:



The SPÖ candidate is pretty mediocre and newish, which means still quite unknown to the public (but older herself). A feature she shares with other SPÖ-leaders in 6 Austrian states, where the SPÖ underperforms.



NEOS has no frontrunner yet and might struggle again to pass the 4% threshold ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the „Kurier“ newspaper, after one year of ÖVP-Green:



By a 62-36 margin, voters approve of the job the Conserva-Green government has done this year.

And 40% say they have found the right balance in dealing with personal rights infringement during Covid, while 29% say personal freedom was too heavily infringed and 27% who say it wasn’t infringed enough.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for my state - Salzburg - by GMK for the weekly Bezirksblätter newspaper:

45% ÖVP (+7.2% compared to the 2018 election)
16% FPÖ (-7.4%)
15% SPÖ (-5.0%)
13% Greens (+3.7%)
  8% NEOS (+0.7%)
  3% Others (+0.8%)

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.

The next state election will be in 2023.

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol poll by IMAD for the „Kronen Zeitung“:



Pretty similar to the Salzburg poll.

The current government there is ÖVP-Green and the next state election also in 2023.