🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

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32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

Man this is close!

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Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:



Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.

Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.

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The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.

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My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

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André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

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Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

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Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

Polls can differ a bit, for example, Intercampus poll has CDS rising to 4%, basically what they got in 2019, but, nonetheless, it's a really bad result for the party. CDS is being squeezed by CHEGA and in some extent from PSD, as the more conservative voters are leaving for CHEGA while the more moderate are going for the usefull vote in the PSD against the PS. Plus, CDS seems that is always reacting not acting as they have very poor initiatives and are in a battle with CHEGA for their place on the right. Now, the problem is that CDS is becoming a copy of CHEGA and no one goes for the copy as they preffer the original.

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

Yeah, this analysis makes a lot of sense. I worry about what happens if CHEGA gets an actual say in government policy. They're already pushing the overton window of Portuguese politics with 1 MP... Doesn't help that they obtain such an outsized proportion of media coverage.

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I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.

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2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:

https://twitter.com/AndreCVentura/status/1303130317365096448

Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

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It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

Well, I somewhat disagree with that. Polling suggests that Marisa Matias may not be a factor this time around like she was 5 years ago, and Gomes and Ventura could benefit from a forgone conclusion election. Marcelo will be reelected, that's not the issue, but, will it be a strong reelection or a weak reelection? And here, both Ana Gomes and Ventura can appeal to possible PSD or PS voters who would have voted Marcelo: Gomes can appeal to PS voters who don't see themselves voting for Marcelo, and she can also appeal to some PSD voters, like myself, who are a bit fed up with Marcelo and like her message of anti-corruption and, a bit, anti-establishment. Ventura can appeal to PSD voters furious with Marcelo for helping too much Costa and, a bit like Ana Gomes, appeal with his anti-corruption, anti-establishment message.

Once again, Marcelo's reelection isn't in doubt, every President is always reelected, but this may not be the "walk on the park" Marcelo and many others were predicting.

Fair enough. I think my grandpa is voting for Ventura over Marcelo. I voted PS in the Legislativas but will be voting for Marcelo this time as long as I don't have to physically go to the consulate in Newark to vote.

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Azores regional elections: 13 parties presented lists for the elections.

A - Alliance, center-right
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDU - Democratic Unitary Coalition (PCP/PEV), leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right*
CH - CHEGA, rightwing to far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center to center-right
L - Livre (Free), center-left to leftwing
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/Maoist
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PPM - People's Monarchist Party, center-right to rightwing*
PS - Socialist Party, center-left

*In Corvo Island, PPM and CDS-PP run in a coalition.

These are the lists for the biggest electoral district, São Miguel, where normally all parties run. In other districts/islands, fewer parties have presented lists.

Hope to see the PPM stronghold of Corvo remain strong. Hilarious electoral result.

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It would probably strengthen Chega's appeal by creating martyrs out of them. Not smart, but it's not like Gomes or Matias stand any chance of beating Marcelo.

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Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.

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Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

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It's interesting how Ventura did pretty well in historically left-leaning areas. If you closely scrutinized his strength in the legislative and EU elections, it also tracked with these areas.

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That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

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But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.

The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe

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Finally, this image sums up the day:

After the ruling session, José Socrates went to a cafe terrace to dine and drink beer and, of course, CMTV was there and Sócrates was trashed by the reporter because there were 5 people on the table and there's a 4 people rule in terrace tables because of the pandemic. Sócrates drank his beer and didn't respond to the reporter.
 

Priceless.

Sometimes CMTV makes the world a more fun place. Most of the time it's horribly sensationalized. This is a good example of the former.

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ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*

Boy, that's quite the large alliance of parties. How did they manage to get RIR and Volt to come into a center-right ticket? Those parties definitely seem to lean left. Anyway, their support base is probably pretty tiny. Although I could see Volt doing slightly better with students at the Universidade.

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RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.

I noticed PS is down a few points in many cities. This seems much more high profile though.

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Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

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Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

Then again, I expected them to run well behind Ventura. It's a pretty personalistic movement still, with Ventura as the key figurehead. Traditional party affiliations might be more stubborn on the municipal level, as they are in many realigning areas around the world.

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What's the best place to find super old election results down to the Fregusia level? The old CNE site stopped working for me.

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So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

Rio is definitely on the left flank of the PSD. If his party wants to stem some of the bleeding to IL and CHEGA (for different reasons) it might be smart to move past him.

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Interestingly that's the same place Ventura just got elected municipally, right? Yikes.