🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

37.9% PS (+1.7)
21.7% PSD (-1.6)
  8.3% BE (-1.1)
  8.3% CHEGA (-1.1)
  5.5% CDU (+0.3)
  4.8% PAN (nc)
  4.2% IL (-0.8 )
  2.9% CDS (-0.2)
  1.3% Livre (+0.9)
  2.0% Others (+0.5)
  3.1% Invalid/Blank (+1.6)

Left vs Right:

57.8% PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre
37.1% PSD+CHEGA+IL+CDS

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.3 António Costa (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.8 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.8 André Silva (-0.1)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
2.0 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 May 2021. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Tensions in the PSD: As polling continues to show a wide gap between PS and PSD, Rio is being pressured to be more harsh against Costa.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1394362898307239948

Rui Rio: Rio is preparing to harden opposition to the Government

Polling numbers varies from company to company, but the PSD is failing to increase its vote share in the polls, as voting intentions are basically stagnant with the Socialists having an 11-12% vote lead over the Social Democrats in the averages. But this is creating, once again, tensions within the party as fears for the result in the fall local elections grow. The recent scandals and controversies surrounding the government are leading many high profile PSD members to demand the party to step up their opposition against the government. Former Madeira President Alberto João Jardim, an ally of Rio, wrote an opinion piece saying the party needs to "wake up" and "change now", criticizing that the party is confusing "patriotism" with not "rocking" the government in a time of crisis. He pressures Rio to be more tough against Costa, which he accuses of being an "European Nicolás Maduro". Rio responded to these claims in a visit to the Holocaust Museum in Porto city, saying he heard the words of Mr Jardim and that he will accept his advise.

[Mike88]

Porto mayor Rui Moreira will go to trial because of the "Selminho case", a judge decided today:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1394666834549485572

Selminho case. Rui Moreira goes to trial for malfeasance.

A judge in a Porto city Court ruled, this afternoon, that incumbent Porto mayor Rui Moreira will face trial because of his involvement in the Selminho case. He's accused of crimes of malfeasance and abuse of power and could be forced out of office. The judge says that the DA has a strong case against the mayor and that Moreira has to face a trial in a Court of law. The DA will now ask for the removal of Mr Moreira from office. Mr Moreira is expected to run for another term in this fall local elections and this could shake up the race in Porto city, we'll see. Curious that in this election year has the two main cities, Lisbon and Porto, are involved in corruption cases and investigations: Lisbon with the "Salgado case" and Porto with the "Selminho case".

[Mike88]

Porto mayor Rui Moreira reacts to the Court ruling and says it will not affect his reelection reflection:

Rui Moreira's press conference in Porto city hall, this afternoon.

In a press conference where Mr Moreira was quite emotional and also nervous, Porto mayor Rui Moreira, said that the ruling does not take away his reason and adds he's convinced of his innocence, pressing, also, that he's being insulted with infamy and that he's stable as a rock to continue to fight for Porto's citizens as mayor. He said the ruling didn't have any grounds and he was sorry for it appearing, again, just before an election. He also pressed again with his defense that he didn't benefit his family in any way and that he considers any accusation an insult about this matter. While concluding his remarks, it was clear that Mr Moreira was very nervous and emotional as he pointed his late father example and said he will not stop fighting in behalf of Porto city, finalizing that the ruling will not hurt his reflection about a possible reelection campaign in the fall local elections.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is in Guinea-Bissau for a State visit and, well, he was received like a Superstar:

After minute 1:30, you can see the massive crowds around him. This was almost reminiscent of the visits of Marcelo Caetano to the colonies during the late 60's, early 70's.

[Mike88]

Update in the 2021 local elections:

- In Guarda, there is a split in the local PSD. The leader of the local branch of the party, and former deputy mayor, Sérgio Costa, resigned and will run also for mayor against the incumbent mayor of his own party. The local party was very divided between who should be the candidate and this split in the PSD could benefit the PS, who lost this city to the PSD in 2013;

- In Barcelos, divisions in the PS and PSD continue. If in the PSD there's a climate of "rotten peace", in the PS things continue bad. The relations between the local and national party continue really tense and now, the PS parish president of Barcelos city will run as an Independent for mayor, which could split the PS vote, but also the PSD vote as many of its members don't like their own candidate;

- In Viseu, and a bit as expected, the PSD choose former Viseu mayor Fernando Ruas as their candidate for the fall elections. This was always the favourite pick for Rui Rio as Mr Ruas is an ally of his. The official announcement is expected this afternoon, but it's unclear if this will not create tensions in the local PSD-Viseu as the party is a bit nervous about the outcome in Viseu city;

Also, more campaign posters for the 2021 local elections campaign from across the country:

Oeiras: PS - Socialist Party
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1394768783655542787

Doing more is possible. Fernando Curto. Oeiras 2021

Oeiras: IL - Liberal Initiative
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1394971577368948740

Would you entrust your household bills to this man? Isaltino is not inevitable.

Torres Vedras - PSD/CDS/PPM coalition
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1395003910247567360

Duarte Pacheco. Affirm Torres Vedras.

Sintra - CHEGA
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1394991470084567040

Sintra's turn comes. Nuno Afonso

Posters from the Ephemera Archive twitter account.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

[Mike88]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

Yes, Avis is the big Communist bastion as it has voted for the PCP, and its candidates, in all elections bar 2001 and 2021, but the PCP strength is falling election after election. In the January 2021 Presidential election, the PCP candidate got just 28% of the votes and President Marcelo became the first center-right candidate to win in Avis with 43% of the votes. Ventura also got 16% of the votes. In the 2019 general elections, the PCP also achieved their worst results till date with just 39% against the 30% of the PS.

The incumbent PCP mayor, which can run for another term, will very likely be reelected but it will be interesting to see his vote share and margins. Many predict that the PCP could suffer a huge blow in the fall local elections.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

Yes, Avis is the big Communist bastion as it has voted for the PCP, and its candidates, in all elections bar 2001 and 2021, but the PCP strength is falling election after election. In the January 2021 Presidential election, the PCP candidate got just 28% of the votes and President Marcelo became the first center-right candidate to win in Avis with 43% of the votes. Ventura also got 16% of the votes. In the 2019 general elections, the PCP also achieved their worst results till date with just 39% against the 30% of the PS.

The incumbent PCP mayor, which can run for another term, will very likely be reelected but it will be interesting to see his vote share and margins. Many predict that the PCP could suffer a huge blow in the fall local elections.

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

[Mike88]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.

[Mike88]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.

By just one vote in 2021, but a win is a win. Also, before 2013, Maranhão was an "independent" parish with less than 100 inhabitants. The PSD/CDS government (2011-2015) merged a lot of parishes in 2013 and the total number of parishes was reduced from 4,260 to 3,092. In that parish, the CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) had normally 80-90% vote shares, but after the merger in 2013, however, the CDU share drooped considerably as the other merged parish, Alcórrego, isn't as strong for the PCP as is Maranhão.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.

By just one vote in 2021, but a win is a win. Also, before 2013, Maranhão was an "independent" parish with less than 100 inhabitants. The PSD/CDS government (2011-2015) merged a lot of parishes in 2013 and the total number of parishes was reduced from 4,260 to 3,092. In that parish, the CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) had normally 80-90% vote shares, but after the merger in 2013, however, the CDU share drooped considerably as the other merged parish, Alcórrego, isn't as strong for the PCP as is Maranhão.

Are there any reasons you know of why Maranhão is so left-wing even by Avis standards?

[Mike88]

Are there any reasons you know of why Maranhão is so left-wing even by Avis standards?

I don't think there's a specific reason why Maranhão is more left-wing, but the parish fits in the Alentejo pattern that rural parishes are more aligned with the PCP, while urban parishes, also in the Alentejo, are more aligned with the PS, and in some cases even with the PSD. This can be explained by the 1974 revolution and the events of the "Expropriations" in the aftermath of the revolution, where vast agricultural fields/ranches in rural Alentejo were stripped from their owners by workers.

[Mike88]

On the eve of BE's convention, the party is investigating reports of harassment and stalking within the party:

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1395001391161257984

Portugal - Bloc investigates allegations of harassment and stalking in the party

After the accusation that a BE MP and mayoral candidate, now withdrawn, was abusive and harassed a woman he had a relation with, BE is facing yet another accusation of a woman who says a 62 year old man in the party's structures harassed her and that he stalked her. Other women also say that this man would harass them on social media by creating fake accounts on the pretext of "political work". BE is now investigating these claims, while the woman in question filed a complaint with the police. The party also had to refute rumours that the man in question was a BE MP. This happens as BE is set to hold their convention, this weekend, in Matosinhos, Porto.

[Farmlands]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

But I suppose socially conservative 'olds' as people say on Atlas are still committed to the Communists.

[Mike88]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

But I suppose socially conservative 'olds' as people say on Atlas are still committed to the Communists.

Yes, the PCP is becoming an "older" party with a considerable part of their voters, according to polling, being above 65 years old. In fact, the older you are in Portugal, the more likely you are to vote in leftwing parties, as rightwing parties perform much better with younger voters. I think that PAN could also threaten BE is terms of social progressive policies, and the current controversy in BE about harassment within the party could damage the party in the eyes of more progressive voters. PS could also benefit from this as it's becoming more and more progressive and the more conservative wings within the party are dying out.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Paços de Ferreira - PS incumbent, 57,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

66% PS (+1)
25% PSD (-4)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  4% CDU (+3)
  1% Others/Invalid (-4)

Poll conducted between 16 and 29 April 2021. Polled 700 voters. MoE of 3.71%.

[Mike88]

Tense week could lie ahead in the PSD: Party "tribunal" to decide sanctions on Rio, because of Euthanasia, and Rio threatens to suspend functions.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1395675003232784384

Rui Rio may suspend functions in PSD.

Next Monday, the PSD "tribunal", officially known as the Jurisdiction council, will decide to approve or not sanctions on Rui Rio and his caucus leader Adão Silva. All of this because of a complaint filed by a PSD member from Braga, who accuses Rio of violating a party congress vote that obligated the party to support a referendum on Euthanasia. Rio refused to support a referendum and, now, the "tribunal" says that Rio violated party rules and could be sanctioned. Rio is furious and accuses the "tribunal" of political motives and, according to Expresso newspaper, Rio is threatening to temporarily suspend his functions as PSD leader and call a National Party Council to discuss the matter and clear everything. This comes in a week where Mr Rio is facing questions about his future in the party's leadership, and he has already said he could leave the leadership after the local elections, depending on the results and/or if he was the will to carry on.

[Mike88]

Twitter suspends André Ventura account for 12 hours after Ventura said that Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita "should be beheaded":

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1395738831882756096

Ventura banned from posting on Twitter for 12 hours after writing that “Cabrita should be beheaded”

André Ventura's, CHEGA leader, twitter account was suspended this afternoon, for 12 hours, after he posted a tweet saying that Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita "should be beheaded". This comment is a reaction to the news that the Interior minister suspended the penalty of a police officer who called Ventura a "aberration". Twitter says that Ventura violated the company's rules and he reacted by saying that this is "truly 21st century censorship that works only for one side" and that he's sorry that those who attack him don't suffer the same consequences.

[Mike88]

BE convention: Catarina Martins reelected as leader in a convention where the attacks towards the PS displayed the division within the left:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1396220085983842306

Left Bloc with one note convention: PS under fire

In the party's 12th Convention, in Matosinhos city, Porto, the Left Bloc (BE) had one target: the Socialists (PS). In fact, many of the speeches in the convention had the PS under fire, some for being too close to right or center, while for others for pushing away the party in terms of agreements. Overall, the future relation between PS and BE will probably continue tense, and this tense relationship is creating, or displaying, the divisions within the left in Portugal. As the BE was accusing the PS and criticizing them, the PCP was on social media trashing BE for basically being irresponsible. In a tweet from a PCP MP, António Filipe, he said that the only reason the BE had a budget to trash on was because the PCP had the responsible attitude of letting it pass in Parliament. He then asked what kind of government Portugal would have if the PCP had follow the same path of BE of aligning themselves with rightwing parties against Costa's government. The PS is also unhappy with BE's positions and words in their convention.

Also in the convention, Catarina Martins was reelected as party leader but saw her vote share drop around 20 percentage points to 67.5%. Her opposition within the party grew and got 21.5% of the votes and now, the more radical wings of the party have a third of the seats in the party's leadership. Her opposition within the party accuse her of damaging democracy within the party and they want the BE away from the PS and stop forging deals with the Socialists. In fact, one of the most applauded speeches in the convention was a delegate that criticized Catarina Martins leadership.

In her speech, Catarina Martins set her targets more on the PSD and the extreme-right, unlike on her opening speech on Friday night where she trashed the PS. She said the PSD wants the extreme-right in the government and the left needs to unite to defeat the right. She pressed on with the policy flags of BE: more investment in the NHS, reverse the labour laws of the troika years, and reforming the financial system. Plus, she also said the priority of all priorities has to be "jobs, jobs. She also tried to raise hopes for the fall local elections, as its expected that BE will again to poorly in the elections. Is also still unclear how the BE will vote in 2022 budget discussions.

[Mike88]

Tension in the PSD: Party's "tribunal" meets this afternoon to decide sanctions against Rio but everything is on the table, even dropping the whole thing.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1396853725369614337

PSD's ‘Tribunal’ cuts sentences and proposes warning to Rio and reprimand to caucus leader

The PSD "tribunal" will convene this afternoon to discuss the sanctions against Rio and his caucus leader, Adão Siva, because of the Euthanasia referendum bill vote. This is creating a really bad environment in the party, and so far, the tribunal has already drooped the most severe sanctions like loss of mandate for Mr Adão Silva and a strong reprimand against Rio. Now, they propose just warnings or small reprimands but everything else is on the table, like drooping the whole thing or acknowledging that Rio and Silva didn't follow party rules but will not suffer consequences. Like I said above, the mood in the party is bad about this and many blame the "tribunal" of persuing a "kamikaze" mission in a very delicate period for the party. It's unclear how Rio will react to the decision, even if its a light one, but he has already proposed to suspend his mandate and force a discussion on this matter in a National Party Council.

[Mike88]

Court condemns André Ventura to apologize to the family he insulted on a live debate and demands he publishes a written apology in media outlets and in CHEGA social media platforms. Ventura will appeal:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1396879449031856138

André Ventura sentenced in court for offending Jamaica's neighborhood family

A Lisbon Court has sentenced CHEGA leader André Ventura to apologize to a family he called "thugs" in a live debate on TV. The Court is forcing Ventura to publicly apologize, and retract his attack, to a family that lives in the Jamaica neighborhood, a very poor neighborhood in Seixal city, and has to publish his apology in the media outlets that originally published the story plus in CHEGA's social media platforms. He and his party cannot give any future comments about this family which could be sanctioned by 5,000 euros by each infraction. The Court also decided that for each day the apology isn't published in CHEGA's social media platform, the party has to pay a daily 500 euros fine. Ventura and CHEGA, however, will appeal this ruling.

[Mike88]

Tension in the PSD: Party's "tribunal" meets this afternoon to decide sanctions against Rio but everything is on the table, even dropping the whole thing.

The "tribunal" dropped all sanctions against Rio and will only give a warning to caucus leader Adão Silva:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1396966851436060675

PSD tribunal backs down and drops sanctions on Rio

A possible crisis seems to have been averted in the PSD. After a long meeting, the party's tribunal has decided to drop all sanctions against Rui Rio, because of the Euthanasia referendum vote bill, and will only sent a warning, the minimum of penalties, to the caucus leader Adão Silva. The vote to "save" Rio was 5-4, in a tribunal where Rio's team is in minority, while Mr Adão Silva vote was 5 in favour of a warning, 3 against and one abstained. This outcome seems to have avoided a crisis within the party as Rio threatened to suspend his mandate and sent the discussion to a National Party Council where he would ask for a motion of confidence and settled things. However, it's unclear what Rio's reaction will be and he will probably react during Tuesday morning.