🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

As the country is preparing for a lockdown, to start this evening at midnight, the government has at least 3 minister isolated or infected with the virus. The labor minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, is infected and is isolated while the Environment minister and the Sea affair minister are isolated because of contact with a high risk case:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1349686630161002496

Minister of Labor infected with Covid 19. Ministers of Environment and Sea in isolation

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Campaign update.

Candidates continue to campaign across the country, with strict limitations, although it's still unclear how the rest of the campaign will progress during the lockdown that starts tonight.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:
https://twitter.com/JNegocios/status/1349681591996592128

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa assumes these positions in an interview with Antena 1, released today, in which he calls for participation in the presidential elections on the 24th, arguing that "it is more important to vote in a pandemic than it is without a pandemic"

Antena 1 radio released an interview with President Marcelo in which he said that he would have the same relationship he has currently with Costa if the country decides to have another PM anytime soon. He added he has a very good relation with Costa and when asked if PSD/CDS voters could be upset with his good relation with Costa, the President responded by saying that the cohabition was a choice of the electorate. He also pressed that voting isn't dangerous and that it's more important to vote during a pandemic than without one.

Ana Gomes:
https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1349688019721334786

Espionage to journalists: Ana Gomes points the finger at Marcelo

Ana Gomes campaigned, yesterday, in Santarém city and she visited several places including a police station to highlight the bad conditions police forces are working in and that the defense of police forces isn't just a right-wing topic. During the visit, Ana Gomes also commentated the ongoing controversy of prosecutors spying reports regarding some judicial cases and she blamed President Marcelo for his failed "Justice pact", adding the problems in the Justice system are only getting worse.

André Ventura:
https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1349649059167023105

Ventura again insults candidates at a rally: "Marcelo looked like that skeleton behind me"

André Ventura was received with protests in another campaign event, this time in Portalegre city, where he fired several criticisms and insults to several party leaders. Ventura said that Costa should get ready to be booted out of office and called PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa a "drunken grandfather". In an almost stand-up comedy act filled with attacks and insults he also said that Marisa Matias isn't very good image wise, especially her "red lips".

João Ferreira:
https://twitter.com/jferreira2021/status/1349411537631531012

Today, I was chatting with Isabel Moreira to whom I thank again for the trust.

João Ferreira, received, yesterday, the support of PS MP Isabel Moreira, daughter of Adriano Moreira, founder of CDS and minister during the Salazar regime.

Marisa Matias:
https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1349720626873970689

Marisa Matias wants “dignified” confinement. Enacting restrictions without announcing support "is unacceptable"

Marisa Matias was yesterday in the Azores campaigning and gave a TV interview to RTP Azores. Today, she visited a charity institution in Lisbon that is seeing a huge surge of poverty and of people asking help for food. She pressed that the new lockdown has to have supports announced at the right time and criticized the government for delaying crucial decision regarding the pandemic.

Tino de Rans:
https://twitter.com/_tinoderans_/status/1349696959427321856

Vitorino Silva promises to be the "outburst of the people"

In an interview to Jornal de Notícias, Tino de Rans accused Marcelo of sometimes failing to have sense of state. He also added that a strong Marcelo result will mean that Costa will be out of power during Marcelo's second term. He also said he's the candidate that understands the current outburst of the people.

Tiago Mayan Gonçalves:
https://twitter.com/LiberalMayan/status/1349719781134520322
Tiago Mayan had an audience with Porto's mayor, Rui Moreira, in Porto city hall where he talked about the problems in the election organization. To reporters he also commentated the ongoing controversy surrounding the spying of reporters by prosecutors and said that these actions are an attack on press freedom and freedom of speech.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

66.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.2)
11.0% André Ventura (-0.4)
10.8% Ana Gomes (-0.6)
  4.0% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  3.2% João Ferreira (+0.6)
  2.3% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.2)
  2.1% Tino de Rans (+1.7)

Vote share %:

41.4% PS (+0.5)
28.0% PSD (+1.7)
  7.1% BE (-0.2)
  5.9% CHEGA (-2.5)
  5.1% CDU (+1.0)
  4.1% IL (+1.3)
  2.2% PAN (+0.4)
  1.2% CDS (-0.2) 
  0.0% Livre (-0.2)
  5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.8 )

Poll conducted between 29-30 December 2020, 2-3 January and 7-10 January 2021. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Early voting numbers.

The registration in order to vote early next Sunday, 17 January, ended last night at midnight. A total of 246,876 voters will be registered to cast an early ballot next Sunday.

Overall, some ballots have been already cast. 66 voters hospitalized cast an early ballot as around 2,500 voters in prison also cast a ballot. Overseas, voting problems are already occurring with ballots arriving late to some countries because of logistic errors, like in Bulgaria, and in Morocco, ballots didn't arrived at time for early voting.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did more than 80 covid tests in 10 months of the pandemic:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1350061933903265792

Marcelo performed more than 80 tests on covid-19 in ten months of pandemic

After this week's confusion due to the President's Covid test results, the media is now reporting that in the span of 10 months, the President has conducted more than 80 covid tests. Currently the President is under surveillance from the Health authorities and any movement he wants to do has to be approved by them. He conducts the tests in the Champalimaud institute and all of his staff is also weekly tested in a private lab. The President is expected to do another test this Saturday in order to, at least it's his plan, do a few campaign stops during the next week.

[Mike88]

The trend from 2019 showed that as the deadline was closing in, the number of voters registering increased, so I would say the final early vote registration will be somewhere between 200,000-400,000. We'll see.

Not bad my forecast range for the early vote numbers. However, the almost 247,000 voter registration data isn't final yet, as the government said that mail applications are still being counted.

[Mike88]

Social media backlash against Ventura's insults towards Marisa Matias using the hashtag "#VermelhoemBelem" (#RedinBelem) :

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1350129491914448901

#VermelhoemBelem. Ventura's attack on Marisa generates a wave of condemnations on Twitter

André Ventura's attacks, Wednesday night on a rally in Portalegre city, against Marisa Matias and some other candidates and politicians are creating a huge wave of criticisms and anger towards Ventura. Regarding Marisa Matias, Ventura said that Matias, "image wise, isn't very good with very red lips, as if it were something to play wit." This attack was received in anger on social media and yesterday, and also today, the hastag "#VermelhoemBelem" (#RedinBelem) is trending and becoming viral in Portugal. Many BE politicians, men and women, and also some PS ones, including Ana Gomes, are posting pictures or videos of them painting their lips with red lipstick and replicating the hastag.

Other candidates like Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, are also attacking Ventura for his remarks, calling Ventura's campaign "low level".

[Mike88]

Prosecutor CV scandal: DA office has opened an investigation surrounding the matter.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1350180277658775552

Public prosecutor (DA office) opens criminal investigation into the appointment of the European prosecutor

The DA office has opened an investigation about the CV scandal surrounding the government's pick for Portugal's European Prosecutor. The complain was filed by the President of lawyers bar association. In this scandal, the government "faked" the CV of their pick for European Prosecutor. It is now known that the EU accepted the arguments from the government that are now proved to be false. The PM and the government continue to downplay the issue saying it doesn't have political matter and that everything was just a mistake. However, the case seems to have had an European impact, unlike what PM Costa said, and many EU parties like the EPP and Renew Europe have filed a complaint to Von der Leyen and many MEPs say the Costa's explanations are not enough:
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1349801457558630406

(...)
The affair has cast a shadow over Costa’s Socialist government at the start of its six-month stint as president of the Council of the EU.

In a letter to Dacian Cioloș, leader of the centrist Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, Costa wrote that “there was no political interference” in the appointment of José Guerra, the country’s representative to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), which was set up last year to crack down on misuse of EU funds.

Renew Europe swiftly dismissed the letter as insufficient.

“The response we received was not clarifying enough,” the group said in a statement, “and therefore we need a debate with all players involved. Our interest is the reputation and functioning of the EPPO. It is therefore vital for us that objectivity and meritocracy rule in the appointments of the prosecutors — any suspicion of possible political influence should be avoided.”
(...)

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (+0.2)
28.0% PSD (-1.4)
  6.5% BE (-0.7)
  5.5% CHEGA (+0.3)
  5.3% CDU (nc)
  2.2% PAN (+0.2)
  2.1% CDS (-0.4) 
  1.3% IL (+0.2)
10.1% Others/Invalid (+1.6)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2021. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

And he returns... José Sócrates writes an op-ed trashing Ana Gomes and the rightwing:

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1350022633245519872

Socrates "shots" against the extreme right of Ventura and the "backbiting" of Ana Gomes

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

[Mike88]

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

José Sócrates is probably the most toxic politician in Portugal, right now. The way his tenure end, with the bailout, plus all of his corrupt conduct that was unveiled in the "Marquis Operation", in which Sócrates was involved in a series of WTF money schemes and his subsequent arrest, he was in jail for around 8 months or so, made him so unpopular, and so hated by everyone. He is also involved in ludicrous scandals involving books he said he wrote but in reality he didn't, it was a ghost writer, and that his friends, his ex-wife mother and other people close to him bought thousands of copies of his books in order to seem it was a best seller. Anyway, the PS want distance from him and he even isn't a PS member anymore.

Don't know why he got the "airtime" in Brazil. However, even here Sócrates has links because he's also suspected of receiving bribes from Odebrecht, the company in the middle of the Brazilian "Lava Jato" scandal.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

José Sócrates is probably the most toxic politician in Portugal, right now. The way his tenure end, with the bailout, plus all of his corrupt conduct that was unveiled in the "Marquis Operation", in which Sócrates was involved in a series of WTF money schemes and his subsequent arrest, he was in jail for around 8 months or so, made him so unpopular, and so hated by everyone. He is also involved in ludicrous scandals involving books we said he wrote but in reality he didn't, it was a ghost writer, and that his friends, his ex-wife mother and other people close to him bought thousands of copies of his books in order to seem it was a best seller. Anyway, the PS want distance from him and he even isn't a PS member anymore.

Don't know why he got the "airtime" in Brazil. However, even here Sócrates has links because he's also suspected of receiving bribes from Odebrecht, the company in the middle of the Brazilian "Lava Jato" scandal.

Huh, I did not know anything about him except that he used to be PM, but he sounds like a deplorable person (and lmao at someone like him decrying "political degradation" in Portugal).

If he is involved in Brazilian scandals too... whoa.

[Mike88]

Huh, I did not know anything about him except that he used to be PM, but he sounds like a deplorable person (and lmao at someone like him decrying "political degradation" in Portugal).

If he is involved in Brazilian scandals too... whoa.

That's what makes this op-ed even more a joke, but whatever, his ego is so big he even doesn't see this contradiction.  

Regarding the Brazilian scandals, to be fair, it's not only Sócrates who is suspected to be involved: the campaign manager of the 2015 Passos Coelho election campaign is accused of receiving bribes from Odebrecht. Passos Coelho himself is suspected of receiving pressures from Lula da Silva in order to give a lucrative deal for Odebrecht in the privatization of a Portuguese company. Other politicians suspected of receiving bribes are Paulo Portas, former CDS leader, and other PS and PSD politicians.

[Mike88]

Ok, seriously, Ventura's campaign is getting crazy. Seriously, this happened:

https://twitter.com/inesjfrodrigues/status/1350220996960276485
Maria Vieira, actress/comedian/TV presenter and a fervent CHEGA supporter, singing Happy birthday to Ventura yesterday. (Ventura's birthday was yesterday)

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential campiagn: More TV broadcasts from the candidates

João Ferreira:

Tiago Mayan Gonçalves:

Tino de Rans:

Marisa Matias:

[Mike88]

Early voting day: 246,880 voters, myself included, are registered to cast an early ballot today. However, there seems to be long lines in many places according to the media. In Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra and Braga there are lines of people waiting to vote: In Braga, the situation was this:
https://twitter.com/pedromorgado/status/1350771554485985280

In my hometown, around 1,400 voters are registered to vote early and no lines are occurring, but I will only vote late, at around 6pm. Polls close at 7pm.

Also, more than 10,000 voters that are confined, 10,334 to be precise, have asked for to vote early so far. The number could still grow as the deadline is midnight tonight. Next week, election officials will collect the ballots in these voters homes.

[Mike88]

Lines in Lisbon city:
https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1350786196289552386

[Mike88]

Polls have closed for early voting. Long lines and people waiting a long time, more than an hour in some cases, were reported during the day. Few precincts available were the reason.

The turnout rates for early voting are still unknown, but it will probably be released during tomorrow or so.

[Mike88]

Final debate: On the radio debate, President Marcelo criticizes the government and the PSD, as Ventura missed the debate.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1351132392224907267

Covid-19. Marcelo says there was a failure in the "preview of the third wave"

The final debate, broadcast by 3 radios, RR, TSF and Antena 1, was held this morning. 6 of the 7 candidates were present as André Ventura skipped the debate because he is campaigning the North of the country. The highlight of the debate was really President Marcelo attacks and criticisms towards the government and the PSD. To the government, the President said that Costa didn't forsee a 3rd wave and that more restrictive measures would be not needed. Regarding the PSD, Marcelo accused his own party of transforming Ventura in the "center pole" of the political system and he would demand a written agreement between CHEGA and other parties. Ana Gomes pressed on the issue of corruption saying that Justice is unequal between the rich and poor and that the fight against corruption is staled. She also continued her criticisms towards CHEGA, accusing President Marcelo of normalizing these kind of parties. Marisa Matias talked about the current NHS crisis because of Covid and demanded that the private sector to be requested by the government in order to help the NHS. She added that President Marcelo is "blockade force" in several topics currently and criticized Marcelo's doubts about the regionalization of the country.

João Ferreira said that the President should lead a "relaunch of the country" by pressuring for spending in the NHS, better wages and conditions for workers and a special attention for national production. Tiago Mayan criticized the erratic Covid strategy of the government and accused President Marcelo of forgeting the problems facing nursing homes currently. He trashed the government because of the ongoing "CV scandal" surrounding Portugal's pick for EU prosecutor. Tino de Rans criticized all candidates present for continuing to campaign on the streets when people are being forced to stay home, saying the politicians need to be an example. He supports more aid to the economy and criticized Marcelo for his over presence in everything adding that if he was President he would not talk about miracles or blame others for mistakes in the fight against Covid.

Full debate:

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential campaign: Controversy in Ventura's campaign events in Braga district.

https://twitter.com/sapo/status/1351114772016750595

The dinner with 170 people, the 2 gypsies called to support Ventura and the vandalized RTP car

Yesterday was really controversial day in André Ventura's campaign. A series of campaign events created a lot of controversy. First is was a dinner in Braga city with 170 people, with no social distance and that it was not even approved by health authorities. All of this in a day that the number of new cases in Portugal reached, again, more than 10,000. When reporters were allowed into the room to cover Ventura's speech, several of his supporters started insulting the media and there almost a fight between some Ventura supporters and a cameraman. A car from the RTP crew was even vandalized with the back window damaged. It's now being reported that the police has identified the owner of the venue and have sent the case to the DA office.

Earlier in the day, at another event, Ventura got the endorsement of two gypsies who left the community. The two gypsies said that the gypsy community doesn't want to integrate in society as it lives still with traditions that no longer serve. But it seems that one of them isn't even a gypsy and the other is now sorry for doing that public appearance alongside Ventura. And, finally, during a rally in Guimarães city, just behind the city's castle, Ventura was once again received with protests.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Early voting for isolated/infected voters well below expectations.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1351245666157277185

Presidentials: voting at home and nursing homes with poor adherence

12,906 voters that are isolated, infected or living in nursing homes registered to vote early in their homes. Portugal has currently 135,886 active cases of Covid-19, which means that of these, and excluding nursing homes and isolated voters, just 9.5% of these voters requested a ballot. The difficulties and fears of this new kind of voting way may be the reason. Many mayors and local authorities have expressed doubts about this model of voting saying it's confusing and not very safe. During this week, election officials will collect ballots at the homes of people isolated, infected or in nursing homes.

Regarding yesterday's early voting, the turnout rate is still preliminary, but with the data of 231 of 308 municipalities, the current turnout rate is 83%.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I follow an artist on twitter and they posted this, what are our portuguese poster's thoughts (hopefully I am not derailing)

https://twitter.com/GotSomeHaps/status/1350489908633284613?s=20

[Mike88]

A bit overreacting because Ventura has absolutely no chance of winning. His race is more for 2nd place rather than 1st place. Of course it will have consequences to the political system, his possible second finish. However, it isn't just the media, IMO, who are always talking about him, the left have been making the same mistakes that others have done with parties or candidates similar to Ventura: talking over and over again about him and basically making their campaigns all about being against Ventura. After all this time, they don't realise they are falling into a trap.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but experience shows that just ignoring the populist right often doesn't work either.

Its not the left/liberals attacking them per se that is the problem - rather that they too often do so in a way that doesn't resonate with those who are the target audience for Ventura et al.