🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Nice maps with 2nd most voted candidates by municipality and other maps:
https://twitter.com/Mathletics1984/status/1353504519024467970
*Click on the image/tweet to see all of the maps.

[Mike88]

At the same time the Presidential election was happening, another event happened, but it was a bit expected:

Santana Lopes leaves the party he founded, Alliance, and a return to the PSD is possible.
https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1353624033657544705

Political parties: Santana Lopes leaves the Alliance, party he founded in 2018

Pedro Santana Lopes has left the party he founded, the Alliance party. This move was expected for a while since he left the party's leadership and became more distante from the party. A dinner he had with Rui Rio, a few months ago, also pointed that he was becoming closer, again, with the PSD. Santana Lopes confirmed he left the party he created in 2018, because the party can only have a future if he isn't in the party as he is still very much linked to the PSD. The party says that Santana gave everything he could for the party and that he's sorry for the awful results the party has. A return to the PSD could occur.

[VPH]

It's interesting how Ventura did pretty well in historically left-leaning areas. If you closely scrutinized his strength in the legislative and EU elections, it also tracked with these areas.

[Mike88]

The results aren't final yet. There are still 3 consulates overseas that didn't report their results. The results from Macao and Beijing, in China, are still out and so is the results from Beira, Mozambique. In Beira, the passing of Eloise cyclone, which has provoked some deaths and a lot of destruction could delay the counting of the ballots.

[Mike88]

It's interesting how Ventura did pretty well in historically left-leaning areas. If you closely scrutinized his strength in the legislative and EU elections, it also tracked with these areas.

It's a possibility that Ventura may be stealing some votes from the left in some Alentejo areas and even some in the Lisbon suburbs, a lot of minorities and so. However, it's also a bit clear that Ventura is stealing votes from PSD/CDS in the South, particularly in Alentejo. Of course you cannot relate the almost 12% Ventura had with a possible general election result, because many voters on the right voted Ventura more because of their dislike of Marcelo than other thing. The PCP strength is disappearing and BE fell into an abyss after their 2021 budget vote.

Also, let's pay attention of what could happen in the PSD in the coming months. I wouldn't be surprised if Rio is booted out before the fall local elections. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Some data on where Ana Gomes and Ventura polled better:

The analysis of the results from Lusa news agency EyeData, gives some inside on where did Ana Gomes and Ventura polled better. First, Ana Gomes:

- She did better in municipalities where the level of recycling is higher than the national average, 56% vs 50%;
- Gomes also did better in places where the % of foreign population is higher than the national average;
- Gomes did better in municipalities where purchasing power is higher and where voters have higher qualifications;
- She performed better in places where a lot of people gain state support subsidies (RSI) compared with the national average;

And secondly, André Ventura:

- Ventura did better in municipalities that have fewer hospital beds than the national average;
- He also performed better in places where the purchasing power is bellow the national average;
- Ventura polled better in places where criminality reported by the police is higher also than the national average;
- He performed better in municipalities that have a higher rate of school dropouts than the national average;

[Mike88]

The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Map of the world with the most voted candidate by country:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1353711668824518657

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I noticed in the Ana Gomes map an unmistakably clear overperformance in the big cities of Lisbon, Coimbra, and Porto (although less so in Braga).

Re: Ventura.
He did indeed overperform in #populist left-wing areas, but I noticed that at least one of his best districts is actually a traditionally right-wing one: Bragança. Anything that makes it especially different from e.g. nearby Vila Real?
Also he didn't actually do well in Setúbal, although that I assume must be because it's much more (sub)urbanized than the rest of Alentejo.

Whenever I find the right wording I put up some display name about Ventura's performance or something.

[Astatine]

sry I couldn't resist

[Mike88]

I noticed in the Ana Gomes map an unmistakably clear overperformance in the big cities of Lisbon, Coimbra, and Porto (although less so in Braga).

Re: Ventura.
He did indeed overperform in #populist left-wing areas, but I noticed that at least one of his best districts is actually a traditionally right-wing one: Bragança. Anything that makes it especially different from e.g. nearby Vila Real?
Also he didn't actually do well in Setúbal, although that I assume must be because it's much more (sub)urbanized than the rest of Alentejo.

Whenever I find the right wording I put up some display name about Ventura's performance or something.

Bragança is a very conservative area so many voters may have voted for Ventura for that reason. But also, and perhaps this is the most important reason, the desertification and lack of opportunities in that region may have drawn more voters, that normally vote PSD in general elections, to vote for an anti-system candidate like Ventura as they don't feel represented or feel that their needs aren't heard by the Government nor by the President.

[Mike88]

sry I couldn't resist

Hahahaha!! Yep, it's just like that!

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election fallout: Is PSD starting to distance themselves from CHEGA?

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1353798333496745985

Political parties: PSD responds to Ventura's provocation: “With this Chega it is impossible to talk”

During his election night speech, yesterday, Ventura threw a big warning to the PSD: "PSD, hear me well. There will be no government in Portugal without CHEGA!". This warning or provocation was seen by pundits on election night as a way to put the PSD in a trap and making it "hostage" of CHEGA. During his remarks on election night, PSD leader Rui Rio didn't talked about possible alliances with CHEGA but highlighted the fact that Ventura polled 2nd in the Alentejo region. But, on a morning radio program, Rio's deputy, David Justino, trashed Ventura saying he represents the worst in politics and the PSD cannot ever talk with "this CHEGA". He added that he doesn't feel "hostage" nor does the party adding that the parties need to find solutions to people's problems rather than talking over and over again about Ventura.

Nonetheless, some voices in the PSD are saying that Rio's leadership is "bankrupt" and that the party is failling to present an alternative which is draining votes to CHEGA and IL.

[Red Velvet]

The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Nah, the “right-wing populism” wave thing expresses itself on a very particular way in Latin America compared to Europe or the US. I didn’t expect Ventura to do a lot better in Brazil, opposed to how well Bolsonaro overperformed in Portugal.

In Europe, its main particularity is that people who always liked leftists and communist parties are being swayed by these people, who gives them increased populist rhetoric to be excited about.

In US there is not a “left” to say the exact same thing but if you look at the demographics it’s somewhat of a similar logic, with rural areas and working class people shifting more to those kinds of politics. Like it happens in Europe.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is more like a more weakass wannabe version of Pinochet. He’s not associated to a moderated “economic populism” like these other right-wing populists in the world somewhat adopt in order to not repel populist voters who happen to like social populism as well but aren’t necessarily friendly to economic austerity. He may even pursue that strategy from now on considering his poll numbers right now, but the people who voted him in were the opposite of rural small town people who happen to like big spending but are socially conservative.

[Mike88]

The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Nah, the “right-wing populism” wave thing expresses itself on a very particular way in Latin America compared to Europe or the US. I didn’t expect Ventura to do a lot better in Brazil, opposed to how well Bolsonaro overperformed in Portugal.

In Europe, its main particularity is that people who always liked leftists and communist parties are being swayed by these people, who gives them increased populist rhetoric to be excited about.

In US there is not a “left” to say the exact same thing but if you look at the demographics it’s somewhat of a similar logic, with rural areas and working class people shifting more to those kinds of politics. Like it happens in Europe.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is more like a more weakass wannabe version of Pinochet. He’s not associated to a moderated “economic populism” like these other right-wing populists in the world somewhat adopt in order to not repel populist voters who happen to like social populism as well but aren’t necessarily friendly to economic austerity. He may even pursue that strategy from now on considering his poll numbers right now, but the people who voted him in were the opposite of rural small town people who happen to like big spending but are socially conservative.

Right. That makes sense, but I was still surprised. Because the Brazil overseas vote is very rightwing normaly, I would fear a Ventura strong vote, but like I said in my post above, it seems that vote is still very loyal to the PSD and also expresses its way differently like you said. Also, interestingly, a poll was released today, conducted before the elections, that shows that more than a third of Ventura's voters in the Presidential election would vote PSD in the general election:

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

39.9% PS (+1.4)
26.6% PSD (+1.2)
  7.5% CHEGA (-0.2)
  7.2% BE (-1.3)
  5.0% CDU (-0.7)
  3.5% PAN (-1.2)
  3.5% IL (nc)
  0.8% CDS (+0.5)
  0.6% Livre (+0.1)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Vote in presidential election vs Vote in general election:

Marcelo: 45.3% PS; 38.2% PSD; 5.0% PAN; 3.2% BE; 0.4% CHEGA; 0.4% IL; 7.5% Others
Gomes: 69.5% PS; 9.8% CDU; 8.1% BE; 7.8% PSD; 1.4% PAN; 1.3% IL; 2.0% Others
Ventura: 59.1% CHEGA; 33.9% PSD; 3.0% PAN; 2.6% PS; 1.4% Others
Ferreira: 70.6% CDU; 17.3% PS; 4.7% BE; 7.4% Others
Matias: 80.1% BE; 5.8% CDU; 4.8% PS; 3.6% PAN; 3.0% PSD; 2.7% Others
Tiago Mayan: 52.0% PSD; 39.7% IL; 5.2% PS; 3.1% PAN
Tino de Rans: 25.5% IL; 13.2% PS; 9.9% CDU; 9.2% PSD; 42.1% Others

Poll conducted between 9-15 January 2021. Polled 1,183 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

We'll see if these trends continue in the polling done after last Sunday's election, although these numbers contradict a bit the RTP poll.

[Mike88]

It seems that the 4 parishes Ventura won in the Alentejo region, all have a high proportion of gypsy communities:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1353987171900739584

"We know that they are fascists, now that they voted for Ventura".

The media is reporting that the 4 parishes Ventura won and others where he had strong a share of the vote, are areas with a high rate of gypsy communities. The best result for Ventura was in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district, where 20% of the parish population is gypsy. Ventura won 41% of the votes against Marcelo's 30% and Gomes's 20%. In 2019, the parish already gave 15% to CHEGA. According to this report by Diário de Notícias, there isn't a lot of tension between the community and the rest of the population, but there seems to be a lot of "silent" resentment towards the gypsy community that explains the vote in the election. Inhabitants seem to fear the rising gypsy community in the parish and many, of the record, say they don't like the way the gypsies live at the expense of the taxpayer. The inhabitants from the gypsy community in the parish are saddened by the results and say that they now know that a lot of people in their parish are fascists.

[VPH]

That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

I would like to know how the eff the poll managed to have more PAN-Ventura voters than PCP-Ventura voters, lol.

Also, here be my new display name.

[kaoras]

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

[Mike88]

That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

I would like to know how the eff the poll managed to have more PAN-Ventura voters than PCP-Ventura voters, lol.

Also, here be my new display name.

To be fair the gypsyfobia, in local government at least, is widespread across all parties left to right. In Loures, the predecessor of the incumbent PCP mayor, former PS mayor Carlos Teixeira also made controversial statements, in 2008, about gypsies saying he was thankfull for a gypsy community protest because he could force them to pay all the debts they owe to city hall and make them look for jobs. And there are other examples across the country. About the Aximage poll, well, crosstabs are always weird and contradictory. We'll see when ERC publishes the full data of exit polls if RTP has some info as they also did a general election poll on election day.

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

I think it's a little bit of both. Ventura and CHEGA seem to be capturing a lot of protest vote in the Alentejo that normally comes from PCP and PSD. No doubt he had the support of many PSD voters in the region, not sure if that will play out on general elections, but he's also benefiting from the massive decline of the PCP across the region.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.

[Mike88]

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.

Yes, the 2016 Edgar Silva result in Madeira was because he was a native Madeiran. The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

The fall local elections will be crucial to see how the PCP is really doing in the Alentejo region. In 2017, they lost several town halls and ended up with 16 mayors, out of 58, in the region. The results of the past elections, general especially, seem to suggest that "the red wall" of the Alentejo could crumble.

[Mike88]

Update on the remaining 3 consulates overseas yet to report their results:

In Beira, Mozambique, the casting of ballots was postponed for next Saturday and Sunday due to the damages cyclone Eloise provoked in the city and in the surrounding areas. And in China, it's expected that the Macao and Beijing results will be announced tomorrow, after the ballots from South Korea are counted.

[VPH]

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.

The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe

[Mike88]

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.

The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe

Yeah, he's weird. But hilarious:

When he stripped naked in the Madeira parliament against his wage garnishment. There were other funny moments, like when he showed the Nazi flag while protesting against the PSD regional government and other moments. I think he's now retired from politics and it's his daughter that has become more present.

But in my opinion one of most hilarious/WTF candidacies ever for the Presidency were from Manuel João Vieira. He never reached the ballot for lack of signatures, but he tried in 2001 and 2016:

His main proposals were that every Portuguese should have a Ferrari, that taxes should be banned, that every single Portuguese should be arrested at least once in their lives, create Ministries like the Ministry for Women and Fishing or the Ministry of Brandy and Coffee and bombard Spanish dams and sell Olivença. Priceless.

[Mike88]

Crisis in CDS: Adolfo Mesquita Nunes demands a snap party congress to elect a new leader. Current CDS leader refuses.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1354231658707226632

Mesquita Nunes calls for snap elections in CDS.

The CDS colapse in polling, with polls showing the party between 0-2%, is creating a lot of internal infighting and anger towards the current leadership of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. One of his most outspoken critics, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, is demanding a snap party congress to elect a new leadership saying the current one has "no project or strategy". He warns that waiting until next year, when the term of the current leadership ends, it could be too late to save the party from the surge of new parties on the right, IL and CHEGA. Other media outlets also say that Mesquita Nunes is ready to face Rodrigues dos Santos for the party's leadership. However, Mr Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, has rejected the idea of calling a snap party congress.