🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is arriving at his victory speech venue. Ventura is delaying, delaying and delaying his speech. But it seems that Marcelo will only speak after all the candidates speak. When will Ventura speak?

Ana Gomes is about to speak.

[Mike88]

Results so far: 5 parishes to count

60.8% Marcelo
12.9% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  3.9% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  3.0% Tino de Rans

39.3% Turnout

[Mike88]

Ventura is about to speak.

[Mike88]

Ventura is about to speak.

Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is speaking.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ventura is about to speak.

Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.

Lol

A bit like Renzi "resigned" in early 2017 only to run again for the PD leadership a couple months later (winning in a landslide).

Though to be fair I didn't even expect Ventura to go through with an official resignation, so he beat my extremely low expectations.

[Mike88]

Ventura is about to speak.

Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.

Lol

A bit like Renzi "resigned" in early 2017 only to run again for the PD leadership a couple months later (winning in a landslide).

Though to be fair I didn't even expect Ventura to go through with an official resignation, so he beat my extremely low expectations.

He did it in a way like "yeah, I know what I said, I will do that sure, but look at them (the leftwing), I crushed them". So, not very convincing, but still.

Also, Marcelo is basically saying to the PSD, "Put your act together, and show you are an alternative". He also seemed to suggest, IMO, that he will be much more interventional in government affair which can create problems for Costa, we'll see.

[Mike88]

Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

[Mike88]

UCP-CESOP poll for RTP:

Vote share % (compared with the previous poll)

35% PS (-4)
23% PSD (-5)
  9% CHEGA (+1)
  8% BE (+1)
  7% IL (+2)
  6% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  2% CDS (nc)
  1% Livre (+1)
  7% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted on 24 January 2021 as voters left polling places. Polled 4,627 voters.

[Mike88]

Parish map of the 2021 Presidential elections:



Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb!

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?

He probably did better because Lisbon skews younger, and younger right-wing voters tend to pick newer parties while older right-wing voters stick with traditional parties.

[crals]

Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb!

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?

Lisbon's "cosmopolitanism" might be the very reason for that (more minorities to hate on). But he did best in very left-wing areas and there are parts of Lisbon district that fit this pattern.

[Former President tack50]

Parish map of the 2021 Presidential elections:



Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb!

Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism ? )

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

He probably did better because Lisbon skews younger, and younger right-wing voters tend to pick newer parties while older right-wing voters stick with traditional parties.

Lisbon's "cosmopolitanism" might be the very reason for that (more minorities to hate on). But he did best in very left-wing areas and there are parts of Lisbon district that fit this pattern.

I guess it makes sense. Thank you to both.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism ? )

Spot on.

Someone please make the "Friendship ended with Mudasir" meme with an image of an Alentejo farmer and the following writing:

Friendship ended with PCP

Now
André Ventura
is my
best friend

[Former President tack50]

Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism ? )

Spot on.

Someone please make the "Friendship ended with Mudasir" meme with an image of an Alentejo farmer and the following writing:

Friendship ended with PCP

Now
André Ventura
is my
best friend

Here it is!

[Mike88]

Ventura had good results in the suburban ring around Lisbon, where there's a lot of social neighborhood with a lot of minorities. In Lisbon city, he polled a distant 3rd. The worst place for Ventura was my district, Porto, he polled 3rd in every municipality and only in municipalities did he polled above 10%. I have a hunch that football still has an impact in Ventura's prospects in the Porto area and overall, he did poorly in the North. The Alentejo parish wins for Ventura seems to be related with the gypsy community in those areas, according to a pundit I heard on RTP.

Gap between Ventura and Gomes by district:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1353473526007787521

[CumbrianLefty]

Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

So the exit polls actually slightly understated Marcelo, whilst having Ventura almost spot on?

That might upset a few narratives.

[Mike88]

Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

So the exit polls actually slightly understated Marcelo, whilst having Ventura almost spot on?

That might upset a few narratives.

Yeah, that's true. Plus, the turnout predictions were an utter fiasco also. Marcelo was underestimated, while Gomes overestimated. Ventura numbers were spot on. The exit polls also oversestimated Tiago Mayan as he is very close of Tino de Rans, just a 0.3% gap, and some exit polls putted him in 4th or 5th place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any correlation between areas that heavily supported Salazar and Ventura support?

[Mike88]

The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

[crals]

White South Africans proving the stereotypes right I guess

Football definitely had an impact imo. Aside from Ventura's poor performance there, Porto is also the district where Ana Gomes (known to be ourspoken about SL Benfica's antics) did best.

Ventura also did poorly (comparatively speaking) on the islands. Of course part of the reason is that his rhetoric doesn't resonate as much over there (not that many gypsies or other minorities) but his stance against regional autonomy may have also played a part.

[Mike88]

Is there any correlation between areas that heavily supported Salazar and Ventura support?

I believe it's difficult to make that correlation because Salazar's regime was a one party state, the National Union (UN) and it got almost always 100% everywhere. The 1958 presidential election and the 1969 general election were the only few expections, with some opposition lists winning some considerable share of the vote but there's few data about those elections. The only data I found, regarding the 1958 election in Porto district, shows that areas the UN won handily, Baião and Marco de Canaveses, Ventura polled 3rd and 4th respectably, and areas with a strong opposition vote in 1958, Santo Tirso and Matosinhos, Ventura also polled badly in 3rd place and around 8% in both. In Salazar's birth parish and where he's buried, Vimieiro, Santa Comba Dão, Viseu district, Ventura polled 2nd with 12% of the votes but Marcelo crushed him by winning more than 66% of the votes.

[Mike88]

White South Africans proving the stereotypes right I guess

Football definitely had an impact imo. Aside from Ventura's poor performance there, Porto is also the district where Ana Gomes (known to be ourspoken about SL Benfica's antics) did best.

Ventura also did poorly (comparatively speaking) on the islands. Of course part of the reason is that his rhetoric doesn't resonate as much over there (not that many gypsies or other minorities) but his stance against regional autonomy may have also played a part.

I assume the islands are still very supportive of the two main parties and less for smaller parties, like CHEGA also. Of course, Ventura position of banning regional governments doesn't help but there's still a lot of party loyalty in the islands, particularly in Madeira with the PSD.