🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).

[Mike88]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).

Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

[Mike88]

Results so far: 81% of parishes counted (the big urban areas are still out)

63.8% Marcelo
12.5% Ventura
10.4% Gomes
  3.6% Matias
  3.6% Ferreira
  3.6% Tino de Rans
  2.3% Tiago Mayan

[crals]

Seems Marisa will stay 4th after all. The growth of the far-right is hurting the communists.

[njwes]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

Ah oops, I didn't mean any disrespect to her! I just didn't click through to the twitter post with the ballot, and so didn't see her. I actually think she got a good portrait.

Also I'll revise my earlier sentiment re: attractiveness--seeing the entire ballot now, I'll rank João Ferreira along with Marisa Matias in the coveted "borderline-hot-for-a-politician" category 

[crals]

Interestingly Marcelo is below 50% in the expat vote. AG, AV, MM and especially Tiago Mayan overperforming in the diaspora.

[Mike88]

Seems Marisa will stay 4th after all. The growth of the far-right is hurting the communists.

Yeah, it seems that, but lets wait for Mayan's results. I expect him to do very well in the urban areas.

[crals]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

Ah oops, I didn't mean any disrespect to her! I just didn't click through to the twitter post with the ballot, and so didn't see her. I actually think she got a good portrait.

Also I'll revise my earlier sentiment re: attractiveness--seeing the entire ballot now, I'll rank João Ferreira along with Marisa Matias in the coveted "borderline-hot-for-a-politician" category 

I know, I just couldn't resist making that joke

[Mike88]

Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

[Mike88]

Also, my hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, finished counting:

60.2% Marcelo
13.1% Gomes
12.8% Ventura
  4.2% Tiago Mayan
  3.5% Tino de Rans
  3.3% Matias
  2.8% Ferreira

42.9% Turnout

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

Beja the city or the district?

In any case, RIP. That is historic, and it hurts my soul a bit.

Waiting for Jornal de Notícias articles about PCP - Ventura voters in rural Alentejo diners

[njwes]

>20% in Portalegre for Ventura is pretty high!

[Rikschard]

Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

Interestingly, João Ferreira didn't lose that much, it was 15,6 in 2016 and now 15,0.
The same thing is happened in Portalegre: right now Ventura gained 20% while Ferreira actually improved from 7,1 to 7,3.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).

Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.

[crals]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).

Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.

I agree, and this election shows that many of the people who are currently voting for the left in Portugal are not necessarily leftists or loyal to the left.

It might benefit the far-left in the long run, however.

[crals]

Ana Gomes now in 2nd. We can sleep in peace.

[Mike88]

Ana Gomes now in 2nd. We can sleep in peace.

It's still very close between the two, but there's still a lot out from Lisbon. Also, Matias is now 4th.

[Former President tack50]

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.

PSOE definitely has benefited somewhat from the rise of Vox, at least for now. Though of course the event they really benefited from was less so the rise of Vox (though it did make for a useful rallying cry for them) and more so the utter collapse of Podemos as well as the division in 3 of the Spanish right, which gets heavily penalized by Spain's electoral system

Similarly, the main event PSOE has been hurt by in recent times was the rise of Podemos; and much of their traditional base in Catalonia going secessionist and changing their vote to Podemos first and ERC later. There is a reason why Barcelona is one of only 2 provinces that have never voted for a right of centre party, not even in 2011.

Then again current Spanish polling thinks that while PSOE would still win a plurality, it would be nearly impossible for them to make a government (PP-Vox-Cs polling around 165-170 seats, with 176 needed for a majority)

[Mike88]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.

So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).

Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.

The idea about the "Costa victory" theory is that with the left crumbling and that left vote going to the PS, and with the far-right hurting the center-right, PSD and CDS, Costa becomes the only centrism/moderate alternative and the PS becomes the dominant force. Of course, a long PS span isn't going to end well, and like you said just look at the french PS.

[Mike88]

Results at the moment: 35 parishes to count, all of them urban

61.3% Marcelo
12.5% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.2% Ferreira
  3.9% Matias
  3.1% Tino de Rans
  3.1% Tiago Mayan

38.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Tiago Mayan has surpassed Tino de Rans.

Ana Gomes gap over Ventura continues to grow.

[Mike88]

Pundits are also trashing Rui Rio's speech, saying he's not seeing the writing on the wall regarding what's happening on the right.

[Mike88]

Marcelo just surpassed his 2016 totals: 2,433,000 vs 2,414,000.

[Mike88]

Funny thing: President Marcelo is driving his own car to his victory speech location.